U.S. Must Encourage Nigeria To Adopt Preventive Measures Against Emboldened Islamist Terror Groups

Islamist terror groups are becoming a nationwide scourge in Nigeria.

A massacre of an estimated 170 civilians in Kawara state in central Nigeria on February 3-4 demonstrates that the Islamist insurgency is spreading from its heartland in the north, outpacing the government response. The slaughter in Kawara, which occurred despite intensified U.S.-Nigerian coordination to prevent Islamist attacks, was the deadliest so far this year, signaling a dangerous Islamist expansion from the north to the center of the country.

Kwara Attack Marks Islamist Expansion Into Central Nigeria

Militants reportedly associated with Lakurawa — a group that emerged from a splinter faction of Boko Haram and is now believed to be affiliated with Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP) — operated openly in and around the villages of Woro and Nuku for months, pressuring residents to reject Nigeria’s secular state in favor of Sharia rule. When villagers refused, the group carried out the mass-casualty attack against civilians, including entire families. Lakurawa has yet to claim responsibility for the attack.

After President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on a Lakurawa campsite in northern Nigeria at the end of December, a Nigerian lawmaker claimed that Lakurawa terrorists fled to Kwara after the strikes. The Islamic State West Africa Province — a Boko Haram offshoot that split from the main group in 2015 — has similarly been expanding into central states from its base in the northeast.

These movements on the ground highlight the growing risk of a counterterrorism strategy that fragments insurgent groups without dismantling them, enabling their spread into Nigeria’s Middle Belt. In Kwara, the warning indicators were sustained and visible. Gunman routinely infiltrated surrounding forests, carried out abductions and disappearances, and reportedly sent written threats to Woro for five months prior to the attack.

Massacre Highlights Abuja’s Failure To Prevent Violence

In response to the escalation of Islamist terror, U.S.-Nigerian counterterrorism cooperation has deepened over the past year. In addition to Washington’s airstrikes against the Lakurawa in December 2025, U.S. Africa Command has reportedly deployed a small team of military advisors to Nigeria to bolster intelligence and planning against jihadist groups. Washington also agreed to expedite delivery of military hardware previously withheld from Abuja.

Washington’s primary challenge will likely involve persuading Abuja to take resolute action against the terror groups now running rampant in Nigeria’s north and central regions. The attack reportedly continued for more than ten hours without a response from security forces, underlining the limits of Nigeria’s ability to protect its own citizens. Local residents had spotted unfamiliar men prowling near their villages months before the massacre. Despite warnings to authorities, security forces were deployed only after the massacre. The Nigerian government has frequently been accused by international agencies of failing to ensure the safety of its own citizens.

Washington Must Pressure Abuja To Shift From Reactive to a Proactive Counterterrorism Strategy

The Nigerian government’s response to the Kwara massacre has been swift but familiar.  

President Bola Tinubu deployed additional forces to the area and launched “Operation Savannah Shield” to “checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenseless communities.” While these measures may deter follow-on attacks, they reflect a reactive model that consistently mobilizes after mass violence, instead of preventing it.

Washington has both leverage and incentive to push Nigeria toward a preventive counterterrorism approach. Rather than episodic kinetic actions, progress depends on Nigeria’s ability to act earlier on local intelligence, disrupt emerging terrorist cells, and limit militants’ freedom of movement. U.S. advisory efforts should therefore focus on improving early warning, supporting preemptive Nigerian deployments, and advising on targeted clearing operations in the Middle Belt and northern states.

Mariam Wahba is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Sam Ben-Ur is a research analyst. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Mariam on X @themariamwahba and Sam @realSamuelBenUr. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.