Strict Enforcement Needed To Curb Indian Imports of Russian Oil

Russian oil sellers are increasingly turning to Chinese purchasers to offset losses stemming from India’s decision to halt imports in accordance with New Delhi’s ambitious new trade deal with the United States. However, the panic selling into Chinese markets should not obscure the likelihood that India will continue buying Russian oil even as it insists that it is no longer doing so.

The shift came in the wake of President Donald Trump’s assertion that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to end his country’s purchases of Russian oil, a key Kremlin revenue stream, as part of the newly-announced trade deal between the U.S. and India. But the purported agreement’s effectiveness hinges on enforcement. Otherwise, sanctioned Russian crude may continue reaching India through intermediaries and shadow logistics.

Unclear Terms and Compliance Standards

Despite its minimal purchases of Russian oil prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India subsequently emerged as Russia’s second-largest customer after China, capitalizing on war-related discounts on Russian crude. In August 2025, Trump hit India with an additional 25 percent tariff on top of the 25 percent “reciprocal tariff” imposed earlier in the year. The administration cited India’s imports of Russian oil as the reason for the move.

After a February 2 phone call with Modi, Trump said he would cut the reciprocal tariff on India to 18 percent as part of the new trade deal. A White House official said the oil-related tariff would also be removed. Trump did not explicitly link the trade deal to the oil issue, claiming that Prime Minister Modi had “agreed to stop buying Russian oil” and would instead “buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.”

However, while Modi acknowledged the agreement on tariffs, he has yet to publicly confirm any commitment regarding Russian oil imports. Trump also made a similar assertion last October, only for Delhi to deny it. Indian refiners have reportedly received no government instructions to halt imports from Russia.

Refinery Behavior Is the Real Test

This ambiguity matters because India will likely remain reluctant to ditch cheap Russian oil. India’s response to Trump’s October 2025 sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, is a case in point.

Those sanctions did not trigger a clean break so much as a de-risking scramble. Refiners pulled back from the highest-risk counterparties, then sought routes to preserve access to discounted Russian barrels. Imports of Russian oil fell to 1.38 million barrels per day in December 2025, a 22 percent drop from the previous month, before dipping again to 1.215 million in January. Russia has remained India’s top supplier nonetheless.

Workarounds can allow Indian customers to continue buying Russian oil while complying with the letter of the law. Following the October sanctions, obscure market newcomers increased their share of Russian exports. Indian Oil Corp. initially paused purchases from Russia before announcing the resumption of imports from non-sanctioned companies. Reliance Industries Limited, which operates the world’s largest refining complex, did the same. On the logistics side, Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, which handles most of its exports, seeks to obfuscate flows through ship-to-ship transfers, hiding or misrepresenting location data, employing complex ownership structures, and registering ships with states with weaker transparency requirements.

Pressure Requires Enforcement and Viable Substitutes

Curtailing Kremlin oil income will require Washington to conduct sustained monitoring and enforcement rather than taking Modi’s purported commitment at face value. The White House needs to clarify that the halt in purchasing applies both to oil purchased directly from Russian companies and to barrels passing through non-Russian intermediaries. The administration should also establish a timeline for phased reductions in Indian purchases.

Instead of reimposing tariffs, Washington should stringently enforce and expand sanctions on Russian oil. Treasury should designate all entities and vessels involved in exporting Russian oil, including intermediaries, and punish violators. The administration should also consider extending its sanctions to the infrastructure bringing Russian oil to market.

Keti Korkiya is a research analyst in the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Dmitriy Shapiro is a research analyst and editor. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.