U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln Shoots Down Iranian Drone

Latest Developments

• Iranian Drone Downed: U.S. forces shot down an Iranian Shahed surveillance drone on February 3 as it approached the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, currently deployed approximately 500 miles off the Iranian coast. According to a statement from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins, the drone had “unnecessarily maneuvered toward” the aircraft carrier and continued its flight toward the ship, despite U.S. attempts to de-escalate the situation. An F-35C fighter jet then intercepted and destroyed the drone with no American casualties. 
• IRGC Attempts To Board U.S. Vessel: Hours after the incident, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fast boats pursued and attempted to board a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The boats relayed commands to the tanker to stop and prepare to be boarded, after which the tanker increased its speed to evade interception. A U.S. Navy destroyer, along with air support, then escorted the tanker to safety. 
• Proposed Negotiations With Iran Face Hurdles: The escalation came as Iran reportedly seeks changes to the format of negotiations expected to be held with the United States and regional powers this week. Axios reported on February 3 that Iran was walking back commitments made in recent days surrounding talks on de-escalation, requesting that the meeting be moved to Oman instead of Turkey as originally planned, while insisting that the focus be limited to Tehran’s nuclear program, not its ballistic missile program or support for its proxy groups in the region. Iran is reportedly also seeking to exclude several Arab and Islamic states that were originally set to join the negotiations. 

FDD Expert Response

“This drone interception and the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz show how easily the current tensions between the United States and Iran can escalate into a conflict. In fact, such a conflict is now likely, as Iran is clearly signaling that it is more interested in maneuvering and procrastinating than in making significant concessions that could placate President Trump. Having had his red lines ignored, Trump knows he will lose credibility if he stands down the U.S. military without gaining a major Iranian concession in return. Iran’s own weakness means that it cannot afford the loss of credibility, at home and abroad, that such a concession would entail.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Fellow

“The Iranian drone shot down by the United States and the attempted ship boarding remind us of the many tools that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps possesses to respond to U.S. pressure and force posture. The IRGC may not be able to defeat the United States or Israel in the field, but it can impose costs on military forces and civilian populations.” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation

“Tehran is revisiting its playbook of maritime harassment near the Strait of Hormuz, measuring Trump’s mettle to see if he remains committed to the use of military force against the full spectrum of Iranian threats. Iran’s deployment of a Shahed-139 long-range drone against the USS Abraham Lincoln was a test, one that the administration passed with flying colors by signaling a zero-tolerance policy toward the regime’s provocations.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Trump must not negotiate with Iran unless the regime first meets strict preconditions,” by Jacob Nagel

“The Nuclear Threat After Tehran Falls,” by David Albright and Andrea Stricker

“Regime change in Iran is in the U.S. interests,” by Joseph Zacks

“‘Repression Cannot Go Unanswered’: EU Designates IRGC as Terrorist Organization,” FDD Flash Brief