February 3, 2026 | New York Sun
As Erdogan Declines, Turkey’s Succession Crisis Is America’s Problem
Could a post-Erdogan Turkey replace Iran as the Middle East’s most destabilizing power?
February 3, 2026 | New York Sun
As Erdogan Declines, Turkey’s Succession Crisis Is America’s Problem
Could a post-Erdogan Turkey replace Iran as the Middle East’s most destabilizing power?
Excerpt
After 23 years in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s time may finally be running out. His visible physical decline, coupled with global tremors — the removal of Venezuela’s autocrat Nicolás Maduro and the looming demise of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — has pushed the question of succession in Turkey to the forefront. Since late 2025, Mr. Erdogan has been maneuvering to shape what comes next.
Turkey is not a conventional adversary. It remains a member of NATO. Yet under Mr. Erdogan, Ankara has become a persistent saboteur of American and European security interests. That makes the identity of his successor not a parochial Turkish matter, but a strategic question Washington can no longer afford to ignore.
Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where William Doran is an intern.