Rafah Crossing Reopening Could Enable Hamas To Resume Smuggling Operations Into Gaza

The reopening of the Rafah border crossing linking the Gaza Strip with Egypt will ease travel restrictions on Palestinians seeking medical treatment abroad. At the same time, it has deepened Israeli concerns that the crossing will again allow Hamas, which remains in power in Gaza, to reactivate smuggling routes from Egypt.

In accordance with President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan for Gaza, Israel agreed to reopen the crossing on February 2. Israel captured the Gaza side of the crossing in May 2024 as part of an operation in Rafah to combat Hamas, shuttering its operation.

But while the border’s reopening indicates progress in the Gaza ceasefire, the fact that Hamas has not yet been disarmed, another key stipulation of Trump’s plan, looms large.

Past experience strongly suggests that Hamas will exploit the crossing to smuggle weapons, terror operatives, and dual-use products into Gaza to reconstitute after a costly war with Israel. Ensuring that safeguards are implemented to address security concerns at the crossing is paramount to its operational success and the stability of the ceasefire.

Rafah Crossing’s Multi-Layered Security Measures

All Palestinians entering or leaving Gaza must be vetted by both Egypt and Israel. Israeli security officers will monitor the exit of Gazans remotely, using facial recognition to ensure that individuals leaving the coastal enclave have been pre-approved.

Palestinian Authority officials and monitors from the European Union Border Assistance Mission will conduct security screenings on individuals exiting Gaza. Security checks on individuals entering Gaza, however, will include an IDF checkpoint. After passing the station, Palestinians will be allowed to move into Hamas-controlled areas of Gaza.

Concern Hamas Will Renew Border Smuggling Operations

Several Israeli politicians expressed anxiety over the reopening of the crossing, among them opposition leader Yair Lapid, who lamented the lack of a physical IDF presence at the border.

Before the Hamas-led atrocities of October 7, 2023, Hamas utilized the Rafah Border Crossing to smuggle weapons and supplies into Gaza to bolster its forces. Tunnels built along the Egypt-Rafah border served as the primary mode of smuggling for consumer goods like cigarettes and clothing, but the IDF assessed that most weapons in Hamas’s arsenal were smuggled through the Rafah Crossing aboveground, while the passage was under Egyptian control before May 2024.

According to the IDF, Hamas undertook much of its smuggling efforts during the one-year term in office of Egypt’s Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated former president, Mohammad Morsi, from 2012 to 2013. Reuters reports from 2021 indicated that Hamas focused on smuggling “factory-grade” rockets from Egypt during this time.

 However, Israel also assessed that smuggling continued in the years that followed Morsi’s ouster, before the IDF took control of the Rafah Crossing in May 2024. Hamas primarily used the Rafah region to store rockets, hoping to deter Israeli strikes by placing weapons caches near Egypt.

Gaza Executive Board Must Identify Criteria for Closure

The persistent security challenge in Rafah was visible on January 29, when the IDF confirmed that its troops had captured a “central commander in the East Rafah Battalion” after several terrorists emerged from tunnels beneath the city, indicating that Hamas remains an active threat in the area.

To mitigate security risks, the Gaza Executive Board, the subcommittee of the UN-endorsed Board of Peace initiative responsible for overseeing the Gaza ceasefire, should identify clear immediate-closure criteria for the crossing, and communicate these with all security partners at the Rafah Crossing.

These should include any attempt at smuggling weapons, terror operatives, or other dual-use contraband through the crossing, and any attempt by high-level Hamas commanders to flee Gaza. Likewise, humanitarian aid shipments should continue to be diverted to the Kerem Shalom Crossing, on Gaza’s southeastern border with Israel, where the IDF operates advanced security screening measures for shipments.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.