US seizes more tankers, courts oil companies as post-Maduro Venezuela takes shape

In the week since Washington arrested former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the outlines of a post-Maduro Venezuela have begun to take shape. Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello are maneuvering for influence as they consider their next steps without Maduro.

Meanwhile, the US blockade on sanctioned oil exports remains in force, with American forces seizing three oil tankers over the past week. US President Donald Trump is also seeking to secure 30–50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil and encouraging American oil companies to invest.

Venezuela’s future remains uncertain, as Rodríguez and Trump have advanced competing claims of authority, and Washington has yet to outline a clear plan for transition or elections.

US escalates blockade with oil tanker seizures

On December 16, prior to Maduro’s capture, Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments. Following the raid on Maduro’s compound, the United States has increased enforcement of its global maritime blockade on Venezuelan oil exports.

On January 7, US European Command, with the assistance of British surveillance aircraft, boarded and seized the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera in the Atlantic Ocean after a two-week pursuit. The vessel, formerly known as the Bella 1, had reversed course toward Europe in December in an apparent effort to evade US patrols near Venezuela. During the pursuit, Russia reportedly deployed a submarine to shadow the tanker.

That same day, the US Coast Guard seized a second vessel—the M. Sophia—in a pre-dawn interdiction in the Caribbean. Both ships were part of a global “shadow fleet” used by Russia, China, Iran, and Venezuela to evade US sanctions. The M. Sophia, for instance, had been sanctioned by former US President Joe Biden for transporting sanctioned Russian crude oil. By January 9, US officials announced that the campaign had resulted in a total of five tanker seizures linked to sanctions evasion after boarding and seizing the Olina tanker, which was originally named the Minerva M.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated that the blockade would be enforced “anywhere in the world.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described the interdictions as law-enforcement actions conducted under existing sanctions authorities, while US Attorney General Pam Bondi warned that the crews of seized vessels could face prosecution in US courts.

Russia’s Transport Ministry protested the Marinera boarding, arguing that it violated the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and amounted to “outright piracy.”

Delcy Rodríguez navigates an uneasy interim presidency

Delcy Rodríguez, the former vice president of Venezuela, was sworn in as interim president by the National Assembly of Venezuela on January 5. Her appointment was endorsed by the ruling party leadership, including Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez (Delcy’s brother), and backed by Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, as well as by Russia and China.

While Trump has not formally endorsed Rodríguez, he has said that “she’s cooperating” while also warning that “if she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.” Trump has also continued to say that the US is in charge of Venezuela, even posting a doctored image of a Wikipedia page deeming him “Acting President of Venezuela” to Truth Social. It was revealed that Trump and his administration were briefed on a classified CIA report that concluded regime officials were likely to be the most stable option leading a temporary government.

Upon taking the interim presidency, Rodríguez immediately moved to rebalance the security structure. On January 5, she appointed Major General Gustavo González López as commander of the Presidential Honor Guard and the head of the General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM). González López previously led intelligence services and had recently served as a strategist at PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil and gas company. He is widely considered close to Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello.

On January 6, PDVSA announced it was entering negotiations with Washington over the sale of crude oil. The statement framed the talks as commercial transactions conducted with transparency and compared them to existing arrangements with Chevron under prior sanctions waivers.

Rodríguez faces opposition challenges. María Corina Machado, the prominent opposition leader and former deputy of the National Assembly of Venezuela, rejected Rodríguez’s authority, vowed to return to Venezuela, and demanded elections. Machado is set to meet with Trump this week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase US approach to Venezuela policy: stabilization, economic opening and reconciliation, and a later political transition.

Regime hardliners Cabello and Padrino López assert control

Outside of Rodriguez, regime power has consolidated around security figures. Interior Minister Cabello, long considered Maduro’s principal enforcer, has emerged as the most visible authority on the ground.

In the days following Maduro’s capture, armed colectivos, Chavista paramilitary groups, fanned out across Caracas, establishing checkpoints and conducting phone searches. Cabello has helped lead colectivo groups in the past, though some are fragmented and have operated independently. Cabello released videos showing himself patrolling with heavily armed units, telling Venezuelans, “It’s calm, it’s tranquil,” and urging them to “get back to work.” In one video, he chanted along with Caracas police, “¡Siempre leales, nunca traidores!” (“Always loyal, never traitors!”)

Cabello retains control over police forces, intelligence agencies, and paramilitary colectivos, which have been linked to thousands of alleged extrajudicial killings and arbitrary detentions during the Maduro era. The interim government declared a state of emergency, banning public assemblies and authorizing the arrests of individuals accused of supporting the US operation. During the initial crackdown, at least 14 journalists were detained, with all but one later released.

Cabello’s posture has also been shaped by US pressure. According to reporting citing US officials, Washington warned Cabello through intermediaries that he could face capture or lethal force if he obstructs the transition. US planners reportedly view him as both necessary for short-term stability and dangerous due to his independent power base. Officials have explored options to eventually remove Cabello through exile or negotiated exit, fearing that a direct move against him could provoke violent retaliation from colectivos loyal to him.

Vladimir Padrino López, who commands Venezuela’s conventional armed forces, remains another critical figure. Padrino publicly affirmed loyalty to Delcy Rodríguez shortly after Maduro’s removal. Like Cabello, he is under a US indictment for narcotics trafficking and was targeted with a multimillion-dollar bounty “for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction” prior to the raid.

US officials reportedly view Padrino as more pragmatic than Cabello and believe he may cooperate if offered personal guarantees. While Padrino condemned the US operation as a “deplorable” act of regime change, Venezuela’s military has taken no retaliatory action. Venezuela’s air defenses were wholly ineffective during the January 3 strike.

Trump Administration seizes oil policy and courts US companies

The White House announced plans to market 30–50 million barrels ($1.8–$3 billion) of Venezuelan crude trapped by sanctions and the blockade. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US would collect payment and direct proceeds toward Venezuelan stabilization while shipping oil to American refineries.

Wright said the US intends to market Venezuelan production indefinitely. Vice President JD Vance stated that Venezuela may sell oil only if doing so will “serve America’s national interest.”

On January 9, Trump met with executives from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, urging up to $100 billion in investment to rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure. Trump argued that renewed supply would drive global energy prices down, noting oil benchmarks near $60 per barrel. Oil companies remain cautious. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told Trump that Venezuela is “currently uninvestable” without structural changes.

Samuel Ben-Ur is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Krystal Bermudez is a senior communications manager at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.