Israel-Syria Negotiations Show Promise, But Significant Obstacles Remain

After months of rising tensions, Israel and Syria are back at the negotiating table in Paris. Syria’s state news agency reported that Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and intelligence chief Hussein Salamah headed the Syrian delegation in negotiations on January 5 and 6, which were held under U.S. coordination and mediation.  The Israeli party was led by Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter. Following the talks, Axios reported that, “Israel and Syria agreed in the meeting to increase the pace of negotiations, hold more frequent meetings, and take confidence-building measures between the two countries.”

The talks follow a four-month hiatus that began with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States, during which President Donald Trump said he hoped Netanyahu would “get along with Syria.”  Despite Israel’s legitimate concerns about Syria’s new leadership, particularly the inclusion of jihadists in the Syrian army, a demilitarized zone in southern Syria could provide the solution, creating an area of separation between Syria’s army and the IDF. Syria, for its part, views Israeli operations in the south as interference in its internal affairs, and the agreement would likely include the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the areas they entered following the fall of the Assad regime.

Significant Obstacles to a Deal Remain

Since Bashar al-Assad’s deposition in December 2024 by Ahmad al-Sharaa, who was then the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Israel has been cautious. Jerusalem fears that elements within the Syrian army could be deployed near the Golan and threaten its northern border. Netanyahu even asserted that “Half of [al-Sharaa’s] army are jihadists.” During recent celebrations marking the fall of the Assad regime, Syrian soldiers were filmed chanting slogans associated with Hamas such as “Oh Gaza, we’re with you till death.”

Israel maintains three operational zones extending into Syria, while demanding that any agreement between the two countries must include a demilitarized zone in southern Syria. Damascus, conversely, is seeking a complete withdrawal of IDF forces to the disengagement lines it held before Assad’s toppling, before any normalization agreement is signed.

Power Vacuum in Southern Syria

Throughout its civil war, southern Syria was used by Iran-backed groups as a corridor for weapons and drug smuggling. Assad relied on criminal networks in the south to traffic captagon, a highly addictive amphetamine that helped finance the regime’s survival. Since its collapse, some of these criminal networks have continued smuggling drugs into Jordan, prompting Amman to launch several airstrikes targeting drug and weapons smugglers and warehouses in the southern Suwayda Province.

Certain Iran-backed groups have also reorganized into new militias, including the Islamic Resistance in Syria, which has claimed several attacks against Israeli forces in the area and could pose a threat to Israel’s northern border. Separately, Israeli media recently reported that Tehran was working alongside actors in Syria hostile to Sharaa to assassinate the president.

Israeli reports have also indicated that Hamas cells have sought to reestablish a foothold in southern Syria, particularly around Beit Jinn. The location has seen repeated Israel Defense Forces raids in recent months, the latest of which resulted in the deaths of 13 Syrians.

To Find Stability, Israel and Syria Need the U.S.

After the negotiations in Paris, the United States proposed a demilitarized economic zone on the border between Syria and Israel, in line with Washington’s repeated calls for a security agreement between Israel and Syria as a first step toward future arrangements. The proposal could satisfy Israel’s desires for a demilitarized zone in southern Syria while stimulating the Syrian economy with business.

Additionally, all parties agreed to establish a “joint fusion mechanism” to “facilitate immediate and ongoing coordination on their intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under the supervision of the United States.” The U.S. is well-positioned to continue mediating further negotiations and should seek to build upon agreements made in Paris this week to lower tensions while addressing Israeli concerns over the positioning of jihadist elements of al-Sharaa’s army near the border.

Ahmad Sharawi is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor. For more analysis from the authors, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad and Aaron on X @AhmadA_Sharawi and @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.