Preventing Violence in Southern Syria Depends on Damascus and Jerusalem Reaching an Agreement

“Israel must maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria,” President Donald Trump said on December 1, amid rising tensions between the two countries. On November 27, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched an operation in the southern Syrian village of Beit Jinn “to apprehend suspects from the [Jamaa] Islamiya terrorist organization,” which is the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Six IDF soldiers were wounded, and 13 Syrians were killed. A day before, Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Gaza-based terror organization, has been “increasingly strengthening its military wing in Syria in recent weeks.”

Trump has urged Israel to pause its operations in Syria to allow the Damascus to evolve into a “prosperous State.” Officials from both sides have confirmed their interest in reaching an arrangement that could stabilize southern Syria and address Israel’s concerns about the new government in Damascus. However, progress on the agreement, which has been in negotiations since June, has stalled.

Israel and Syria Face Multiple Stumbling Blocks to a Deal

Over the past year, Israeli units deployed in Quneitra Province, adjacent to the Israeli Golan Heights, and have carried out several raids and incursions to seize weapons and prevent potential threats to the Golan. Israel expects that the new Syrian government will establish a “demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to … the summit of Mount Hermon” that would be free of any heavy weaponry or Syrian military personnel.

The two sides are separated by Syria’s demand that Israel withdraw from all the territory it has occupied since the fall of the Assad regime. KAN news had reported that “Israel will withdraw from some of these points only in exchange for a full peace agreement with Syria.”  

Syrian Druze Under Multiple Threats

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that safeguarding the Druze community in Syria is a top priority for Israel. In July, Israel intervened militarily in support of the minority group when Syrian government forces — alongside Arab Sunni Bedouin tribes — entered the Suwayda Province. More than 1,000 people were killed, most of whom were Druze. Since then, the province has resisted state control and is now patrolled by local militias.

Tensions between Druze factions have also intensified over the past few days. On November 29, members of Suwayda’s National Guard, a militia affiliated with Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri that describes itself as the “official military institution that represents the Druze,” carried out a series of arrests of Hijri’s opponents. The militiamen later killed two of those arrested. The internal chaos in Suwayda has also led Sheikh Muwaffaq Tarif, the spiritual leader of Israel’s Druze community, and the person spearheading Israel’s support for them, to issue a warning to al-Hijri to de-escalate the conflict.

Mutual Security Concerns Present an Opportunity for a Deal

The power vacuum in southern Syria poses a direct threat to both the government in Damascus and Israel’s security. The region still hosts remnants of Iran-backed proxies. Additionally, with a limited state security presence in many of the villages, smugglers have reopened weapons and drug trafficking corridors. Captagon, a highly addictive amphetamine, continues to move from southern Syria into Jordan. Recently, the IDF arrested a weapons smuggling cell composed of Syrian Druze and several IDF soldiers who were transporting arms from Syria to criminal networks in northern Israel.

U.S. Well-Positioned to Bring Israel and Syria Together

The United States should prioritize pushing both countries to agree on a security framework that can serve as the basis for trust-building and future negotiations. Washington should also press Damascus to establish a coordination mechanism with Jerusalem to address security threats emerging from southern Syria. At the same time, the United States must ensure that the Syrian government does not permit Palestinian terror organizations to reconstitute themselves or rebuild their military capabilities on Syrian territory.

 Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.