How the Nile Water Dispute Threatens Counter-Terrorism Efforts

Excerpt

The Horn of Africa is a volatile geopolitical crossroads where water rights, energy ambitions, military operations, and port access converge—with direct implications for US national security. The extremist group al-Shabaab, which is considered the “largest, wealthiest, and most lethal Al Qaeda affiliate in the world” by US Africa Command and was designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization in 2008, operates throughout the Horn from its stronghold in Somalia. Al-Shabaab is growing bolder, with aspirations to carry out a 9/11-style attack against the United States. 

A UN peacekeeping coalition with representatives from Egypt and Ethiopia, among others, is currently keeping the group in check. Yet, regional disputes over water resources are stirring up conflict among peacekeeping partners and undermining the ability of allied forces to cooperate to counter this threat effectively. To prevent a crisis, the United States must take a more active role in mediating these tensions before they escalate further.

At the center of this reality is Ethiopia’s newly inaugurated $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which now controls the flow of the Nile River’s largest tributary. For the first time in history, Ethiopia holds leverage over the river, upending a century of colonial-era agreements that favored Egypt and Sudan. 

For Ethiopia, the dam promises economic growth and a much-needed source of electricity for its 60 million citizens living without power. For Egypt and Sudan, which rely on the Nile for 97 percent and 73 percent of their freshwater needs, respectively, the project is an existential threat. 

Daniel Swift is a senior research analyst for economics, finance, and trade for the Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Susan Soh is a research associate with CEFP. Her research focuses on China’s role in the global economy.