Romania, Germany Scramble Fighter Jets To Track Russian Drone Incursion as U.S. and Ukraine Deliberate Over Ceasefire Deal

Latest Developments

• Russian Drones Breach NATO Airspace: German and Romanian fighter jets were scrambled on November 25 in response to a Russian drone incursion into Romanian airspace — marking the 13th such breach since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the first to take place during daylight, and the deepest incursion so far. The jets tracked two drones in the southeastern counties of Tulcea and Galati. Romanian Defense Minister Ionut Mosteanu said the drone, which carried no warhead, was not shot down due to concerns about potential damage on the ground. “We are dealing with a new Russian provocation against Romania, a drone which the Romanian army and German Eurofighters have tried to shoot down. My assumption is that [the pilots] analyzed the potential collateral damage and … chose not to engage,” he explained. NATO member Romania’s neighbor Moldova meanwhile reported that six Russian drones had crossed into its territory.
• Russia Launches Large-Scale Strike Against Kyiv: Overnight, Russia and Ukraine continued to trade blows, with Russia launching a wave of attacks mainly targeting the capital city of Kyiv. Moscow launched more than 460 drones and 22 missiles, damaging Ukrainian water and energy infrastructure as well as a nine-story residential building, killing seven people and injuring 20, according to Ukrainian authorities. Ukrainian drones and missiles also struck targets in the cities of Novorossiysk and Taganrog in the southern Rostov region. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, damage was recorded at an aircraft repair and drone manufacturing facility in Taganrog, while in Novorossiysk, the strikes damaged the Sheskharis oil terminal and Tuapsinsky oil refinery. Russian media also reported munitions striking residential buildings, leaving at least three people dead.
• Ukraine Agrees to Peace Deal Framework: U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced they had reached a “common understanding” on a broader framework for peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly planning to visit the United States in the coming days to meet with President Donald Trump to “complete final steps to make a deal.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that there “were a few delicate, but not insurmountable, details that must be sorted out and will require further talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.”

FDD Expert Response

“The last 24 hours are a perfect snapshot of this conflict. Ukraine takes serious steps to negotiate with the United States and the Europeans to place a meaningful, executable ceasefire plan on the table. Meanwhile, Russia unleashes its routine missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure, killing seven innocent people. Russia is a pariah state that should be sanctioned and penalized heavily for this illegal and unnecessary war, not rewarded.” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology

“In addition to subjugating Ukraine, Putin has a larger plan to undermine the West. By using hybrid war techniques, he’s accomplishing two things: First, he’s spreading fear among the Western population to put pressure on policymakers to deescalate, and second, he’s demonstrating that the West is a paper tiger and doesn’t have the will to respond to Russia’s belligerence below the threshold of war. The United States should not fear to ‘escalate to deescalate’ in order to put Moscow on the defensive.” — Ivana Stradner, Research Fellow

“Russia’s senseless attacks on Ukrainian civilians highlight why President Trump is racing to broker a lasting peace. He wants to stop the killing. However, no deal is possible without Putin’s signature. He is likely to string Trump along indefinitely unless Russia feels the maximum amount of economic pain that we can impose on the Kremlin and its enablers.” — Peter Doran, Adjunct Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“To Build Leverage for Peace, Enforce Oil Sanctions on Russia,” by John Hardie and Max Meizlish

“‘Something Good May Just Be Happening’: Trump Touts Progress at Talks To End Russian War on Ukraine,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘Principled Positions:’ Zelenskyy Pledges To Work With Trump Administration on Ukraine Ceasefire Proposal” FDD Flash Brief

“U.S. Envoy Reportedly Pushes Controversial Peace Plan As Russian Barrage Kills Dozens,” FDD Flash Brief