Are Nuclear Tests Back?

Excerpt

America’s adversaries are carrying out low-level nuclear tests and gaining an advantage over the United States in modernizing their arsenals, according to President Donald Trump and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. The United States considers these tests by Russia and China to be a violation of the voluntary “zero-yield” moratorium that nuclear-weapons states have been obliged to observe since the 1990s.

At least partly in response, the president announced new US nuclear weapons tests on October 29. While Trump’s announcement could mark a dramatic change in posture for the United States, news of Moscow and Beijing’s malfeasance is not new.

US government reports and assessments have indicated since at least 2019 and 2020, respectively, that Russia and China are likely conducting low-level nuclear weapons tests, consistent with the CIA’s recent findings. 

Energy Secretary Christopher Wright subsequently clarified that US tests will not involve similar low-level testing, which would entail brief or sustained nuclear chain reactions and explosions. Still, Russia appears to be taking Trump’s announcement seriously. On November 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials to prepare options for testing Moscow’s nuclear weapons.

Since the matter appears unsettled—and is causing a stir among US adversaries and allies alike—the United States must clarify whether it is shifting toward abandoning its more than three-decade commitment to abstain from low-level nuclear testing. 

Andrea Stricker is deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on X @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.