Gaza Ceasefire Implemented Ahead of Hostage Release

Latest Developments

• Ceasefire Begins: An open-ended Gaza ceasefire took effect at noon local time after both Israel’s cabinet and Hamas leadership accepted the first stage of President Donald Trump’s peace plan. The IDF partially pulled back to elevated positions inside the territory, allowing Gazan civilians to resume travel northward in Gaza. The final hours before the deal saw violence: a Palestinian sniper killed IDF reservist Sgt. Michael Mordechai Nachmani (26).
• 72 Hours to Freedom: The IDF redeployment set in motion a 72-hour window during which Hamas must free all 48 remaining hostages, of whom 20 are believed to be alive. Trump is expected to arrive in Israel and address the Knesset on October 13, coinciding with the releases. Meanwhile, Hamas’s internal security forces were back on the streets of Gaza after the IDF’s partial withdrawal, vowing to “strike with an iron fist” Palestinians it accuses of assisting Israel during the nearly two-year-long war.
• Terrorist Roster: Israel published the list of 250 Palestinian terrorists to be freed in exchange for the hostages on October 9. Among those slated for release are Hamas terrorist Ahmed Jamal Ahmed Kunbeh, who murdered Rabbi Raziel Shevach in 2018. His widow, Yael, gave her blessing: “If this is the price for hostages to be freed, it has my blessing.” However, some of the terrorists at the top of Hamas’s list of demands, including Fatah terrorist Marwan Barghouti and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine terrorist Ahmed Saadat, will not be released. Another 1,700 Palestinians detained during the war will also walk free, according to the deal.

FDD Expert Response

“With extraordinary deftness, this complex diplomatic deal is finally coming together. Much credit goes to President Trump’s aides, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, for execution. But the deeper story is the foresight and forbearance of Israelis who sacrifice so much for one another. Yet for all the warranted relief, this deal is incomplete. Hamas has capitulated but will deny it. The group still refuses to disarm, raising questions about the durability of the Trump plan and whether Israel may be forced to return militarily to finish the job.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO

“The ceasefire plan has unfolded smoothly so far. Yet significant hurdles remain. At this stage of the ceasefire, the foremost concern is ensuring that all remaining hostages are released without delay. While every party involved publicly backs the deal, even minor delays or deviations could threaten its fragile stability. In a conflict defined by mistrust, the success of this ceasefire will hinge less on signatures and statements and more on whether Hamas and its allies can resist the temptation to test its limits.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

FDD Background and Analysis

“Israel, Hamas agree to Gaza deal in Egypt,” by Seth J. Frantzman

“Hamas Attacks Israeli Positions Amid Ceasefire Announcement, IDF Concerned About Kidnapping Attempts,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel and Hamas Agree to First Phase of Trump’s Peace Plan for Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief

“Hamasniks in fox holes,” by Clifford D. May