Food Prices Stable in Gaza According to UN’s World Food Program

If famine strikes, one expects the scarcity of food to drive prices substantially higher. Yet little changed in Gaza markets during September after prices fell sharply in August according to the World Food Programme (WFP) Market Monitor. At the end of July, a kilogram of sugar cost 600 Israeli shekels, or nearly $200. By the end of August, that was down to 13 shekels, or about $4. That rose slightly to 15 shekels (~$4.50) at the end of September. The cost of other staples, such as flour, salt, rice, and sunflower oil, also showed little change.

In late August, a UN-backed hunger monitor, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), formally declared a famine in Gaza governorate, one of four in the coastal strip. The IPC also forecast that famine would strike two additional governorates by the end of September. The stability of lower prices since late August is at odds with the expectation that famine would spread and adds to indications that the IPC declared a famine in Gaza governorate in the absence of sufficient evidence.

Price Spiral in July Sparks Concern Even Among Skeptics

The cost of a kilo of sugar leapt from 80 shekels (~$24) in early May to 240 shekels (~$73) at the end of June to 600 shekels (~$183) at the end of July. The case of sugar was extreme, but the price of many items rose two-fold or more. Israeli analyst Amit Segal warned, “Gaza may well be approaching a real hunger crisis. … Unlike past lies about the situation in Gaza, new research is a real cause for concern.”

An Israeli embargo on aid shipments ended in mid-May, yet the tonnage of deliveries remained below average through the end of June, only picking up in July according to data from the Israeli government.

IPC Declares a Famine Even as Prices Begin To Plummet

In its August 22 declaration of famine, the IPC asserted, “Food prices have skyrocketed amid growing scarcity. Consequently, food security has deteriorated at an unprecedented pace.” Yet WFP situation reports were already showing a sharp decline in prices. An August 20 update found the price of sugar had fallen 90 percent while flour prices had stabilized at a much lower level.

The August edition of the WFP Market Monitor confirmed that prices had dropped across the board in Gaza governorate as well as Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, the other two governorates where the IPC projected an incipient famine. The price of flour was down 86 percent, salt 20 percent, rice 92 percent, and sunflower oil 75 percent. To be sure, prices were still far higher than they had been before the war began, and paying work much harder to come by. Finding enough to eat remains a daily struggle for most Palestinians.

There was also a surge of humanitarian aid in August, with tonnage more than doubling compared to July as deliveries resumed through the Kerem Shalom and Zikim crossings. 

How to Further Improve Food Security

Hamas has an opportunity to end the war if it accepts the United States’ peace plan, which multiple Arab governments have endorsed. This would be the surest way to end hunger in Gaza. Yet even if the war continues, there are ways to reduce hunger. First, the UN should accept Israeli assistance to secure their convoy routes, since its own data shows that 6,808 out of 8,453 (or 80.5 percent ) of the trucks it monitors were “intercepted” and stripped of their cargo as of October 7, 2025. Meanwhile, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which coordinates with Israel, continues to distribute food without disruption, giving out packages containing nearly 183 million meals since it began operations in May. Finally, the IPC should rapidly reassess the basis for its declaration of famine as well as its forecasts that the famine would spread by the end of September.

David Adesnik is vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Samuel Ben-Ur is a research analyst. For more analysis from David and Samuel, subscribe HERE. Follow David on X @adesnik. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.