The Chance to Save Myanmar

Excerpt

Since Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government in 2021, it has ruled with devastating violence. Junta forces have bombed civilians in a bid to suppress rebellious provinces, killing thousands. Junta-supported paramilitary groups have targeted political opponents and their families. And the regime has furthered an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Rohingya, a Muslim-minority population. Since 2017, Myanmar’s military has killed tens of thousands of Rohingya and exiled hundreds of thousands more to neighboring Bangladesh; in early 2025, the junta cut off food and supplies to the 130,000 Rohingya in Myanmar living in prison-like refugee camps, leading to starvation and disease.

Distracted by crises elsewhere and reconsidering its geopolitical priorities, the United States has mostly turned a blind eye to the situation in Myanmar. American policymakers have also assumed that the risks of entanglement in the country—which has a long history of periods of military rule—outweigh the rewards. But U.S. passivity has not just contributed to the dire circumstances for civilians in Myanmar. It has also undercut the United States’ position in Asia by creating space for China to exploit Myanmar’s instability. Beijing, willing to back any regime regardless of its ideology or tactics, has stepped into the breach left by Washington’s inaction.

Daniel Swift is Senior Research Analyst for the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He served as Director of Economic Development for the U.S. Agency for International Development in Burma from 2015 to 2019. Sean Turnell is a Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute and former Economic Policy Adviser to Aung San Suu Kyi.