Poland, Latvia Restrict Airspace Following Russian Drone Attacks

Latest Developments

Poland and Latvia Restrict Airspace on Eastern Border: Poland and Latvia became the latest European states to place restrictions on the airspace along their eastern borders after more than a dozen Russian drones violated Polish airspace during an overnight barrage targeting Ukraine. The Polish restrictions will remain in place until December 9, while the Latvian restrictions will last until at least September 18, with the possibility of an extension. The restrictions mirror those imposed by Lithuania in August, when a limited no-fly zone was declared along its border with Belarus until October 1 after two Russian drones breached its airspace from Belarus.
Polish Border Closes Ahead of Russia-Belarus Military Exercises: Poland also announced that it was closing its border with Belarus and deploying 40,000 soldiers as Russia and Belarus prepare for the joint Zapad 2025 military exercise from September 12-16. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the exercises “very aggressive” and noted that they were “very close to the Polish border.” Reportedly, parts of the exercise will rehearse defending against attacks from Western states and practice “planning the use of” Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles.
NATO Prepares for More Drone Attacks: Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, said during a visit to Lithuania that if a large swarm of drones penetrated a NATO member state, “that is not accidental, that is not an incursion, that would be an attack against the alliance’s territory.” Grynkewich added that in such a case, there would be an “activation of plans and the flow of additional capabilities into allied command operations.” Russia has a history of using military exercises as cover for invasions, with similar maneuvers preceding its 2014 invasion of Crimea and its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

FDD Expert Response

“The Baltic states and Poland have always been the most forward-leaning NATO members in dealing with Russian provocations. This is a stark reminder to NATO that it needs to address the integrated air and missile defense shortfalls on its eastern flank.” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology

“Poland and our Baltic allies are taking necessary and prudent precautions to protect their airspace from future Russian drone attacks and other malign probes of NATO’s defenses. Vigilance must be the watchword during the upcoming Russian-Belarusian military exercises this weekend and beyond. Russian President Vladimir Putin has elevated the danger along NATO’s frontline. Our responses should reflect this fact.” — Peter Doran, Adjunct Senior Fellow