Iran Refusing Inspections of Nuclear Sites as Senior IAEA Official Concludes Visit to Tehran

Latest Developments

First Meeting With IAEA Since June War: The Deputy Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Massimo Aparo, has departed from Tehran after conducting the agency’s first meeting with Iranian officials since the war between Israel and Iran in June. Ahead of the visit, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that renewed talks between the Islamic Republic and the IAEA would be “complicated” and “technical,” with Iran refusing to allow the agency to inspect its nuclear sites in the wake of the Israeli and U.S. bombing campaign. In June, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called on Iran to allow inspectors access after the Iranian parliament voted to halt cooperation with the agency.
Iran Preparing for Snap Back Sanctions: Simultaneously, the Iranian Intelligence Ministry has reportedly advised Iranian companies to prepare for a “snap back” of UN sanctions on Iran that were suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal or have since lapsed. The ministry urged the companies to “[i]dentify alternative suppliers in countries like China, Russia, Iraq, etc., which will be less affected by sanctions.” France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, known collectively as the E3, have threatened, in coordination with the United States, to trigger snapback at the end of August — meaning that multilateral sanctions would be reapplied before their expiration in October, when Russia also assumes the UN Security Council presidency. They plan to trigger snapback unless Iran provides a “firm, tangible, and verifiable commitment” to fully cooperate with the IAEA and agree to other measures to curb its nuclear activities.
Thousands of Suspects Detained During 12-Day War: Iran reportedly arrested some 21,000 people during the war with Israel, according to Iranian police spokesperson Gen. Saeed Montazeralmahdi. He noted that 260 of those arrested were charged with espionage, with a further 172 individuals detained for “illegal filming.” Montazeralmahdi also stated that 1,000 checkpoints were established nationwide in Iran between June 13 and 24.

FDD Expert Response

“Tehran is in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by refusing the IAEA access. Apart from its destroyed facilities, Iran had several other sites previously under IAEA safeguards due to the presence or production of nuclear material. More broadly, the regime — typically a master of delay — is reeling following the war with Israel and the United States. Tehran appears unwilling or unable to accept the E3’s core demands to allow the IAEA back in, account for missing highly enriched uranium, and negotiate long-term restrictions on its nuclear program, including ruling out future uranium enrichment. The E3 and the United States would be wise to reimpose invaluable UN sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear, missile, and arms activities.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“After stoking Western fears about the direction of its nuclear program and denying the IAEA access to its sites, the Islamic Republic is now trying to reassure the IAEA to avoid snapback sanctions at the Security Council. While restoring these UN penalties will not resolve the nuclear dispute, they will provide the United States and its European allies with meaningful tools and real leverage as a counterweight.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“The regime uses espionage trials as political theater to both mask its failure to curb operations by Israel’s Mossad agency and intimidate a population primed for unrest. Israel’s strikes on Iran’s repressive apparatus boosted anti-regime morale among Iranians as they observed their persecutors on the back foot. With more executions looming, a targeted U.S. diplomatic messaging campaign is essential to prevent this momentum among ordinary Iranians from being crushed by arrests and executions.” — Janatan Sayeh, Research