Eyeing Sanctions ‘Snapback,’ Iran Petitions Russia and China Ahead of E3 Meeting

Latest Developments

• Iran Solicits Allies: Iranian officials will meet on July 22 with counterparts from two of its Axis of Aggressors allies, Russia and China, to discuss ways to circumvent the reimposition of UN sanctions if there is no progress on nuclear talks by the end of August. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on X that he sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stating that the “E3 cannot and should not be allowed to undermine the credibility of the UN Security Council by abusing a resolution to which they themselves have not been committed.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on July 21 that there were no current plans to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States.
• Iran Sets Meeting Date With E3: Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with members of the E3 — Britain, France, and Germany — on July 25, intending to avert the reimposition of sanctions on the regime. According to Iranian media, the meeting will take place in Istanbul at the deputy foreign minister level. The E3 have called on Iran to resume its stalled nuclear negotiations with the United States or face a snapback of UN sanctions in late August, before the final opportunity to trigger the provision expires on October 18. Snapback is one element of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
• Iran Claims Air Defenses Rebuilt, Launches Naval Drill With Russia: The Iranian Army’s deputy chief of operations, Rear Adm. Mahmoud Mousavi, claimed on July 20 that Iran had replaced the air defenses destroyed by Israel during the past month’s 12-Day War. “Some of our air defenses were damaged, this is not something we can hide, but our colleagues have used domestic resources and replaced them with pre-arranged systems that were stored in suitable locations in order to keep the airspace secure,” Mousavi told Iran’s Defah Press news agency. Iran and Russia also launched joint naval drills in the Caspian Sea on July 21, with Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reporting that the drills are “designed to enhance field coordination, operational interactions, and multilateral cooperation in the field of maritime search and rescue.”

FDD Expert Response

“Following the 12-Day War, the Islamic Republic’s strongest cards remain political, not military. Tehran is working overtime to prevent Europe from triggering the snapback mechanism that could collapse UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the JCPOA nuclear deal, and restore older and more stringent Security Council resolutions that contained open-ended bans on Iranian arms transfers and ballistic missile tests and calls to end Iran’s uranium enrichment. But any delaying of the snapback mechanism, which expires this October, will only water down the West’s gains and put time on Tehran’s side.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“A seriously weakened regime in Tehran is hoping and praying that China and Russia come to the rescue and that the United States and Israel forget their demonstrated strength and revert to a pre-October 7 strategy that only punches the proxies rather than the terror patron. The regime is weakened but up to the same old tricks. Iran is counting on division, distraction, and indecision in Washington and Europe. If we are talking only about the United Nations, negotiations, and sanctions, the regime is winning.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

FDD Background and Analysis

“Iran and its militias brace for another conflict with Israel,” by Janatan Sayeh and Bridget Toomey

“Iran Is Out to Kill Trump,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu and Saeed Ghasseminejad

“EU Sanctions Tehran’s Transnational Repression Network,” by Janatan Sayeh and Behnam Ben Taleblu

“The perils of peacemaking,” by Clifford D. May