The Iran-Israel War Returns to the Shadows, for Now

The war between Iran and Israel has returned to the shadows. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have resumed attacks against Israeli territory and struck commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Closer to home, U.S. officials warn of possible Iran-backed sleeper cells and cyberattacks.

The strikes are not all carried out by one side. In Iran, a series of explosions have been reported since a tenuous ceasefire between the Jewish State and the Islamic Republic took effect on June 24. Iranian authorities were only able to explain away some of them.

It’s deniable gray-zone violence, but to ignore it jeopardizes the hard-won conventional gains of Israel and America in the post-October 7 Middle East.

Explosions Reported in Iran Post-Ceasefire

Iran International reported explosions in western Tehran on June 28. On June 29, an explosion was reported at a refinery in Tabriz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed the second explosion was due to an accident involving a nitrogen tank; however, local authorities said unexploded Israeli ordnance detonated during its disposal. Israel struck the Tabriz refinery earlier in the month, but Iranian officials had denied damage to the complex. Videos showed explosions in Shahr-e Ray, home to a key refinery and military base in southeastern Tehran, on July 1 — a week after the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Israel targeted the area multiple times during the conflict.

While Israel has not claimed what appear to be attacks, given the strategic locations of recent explosions and Israeli intelligence networks embedded in Iran, the theory of foreign sabotage cannot be dismissed.

The Proxy War Against Israel Continues

On July 6, Iran’s proxy in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, launched a ballistic missile toward Israel following extensive strikes days earlier by Jerusalem against Houthi targets. The group claims approximately 75 drones and missiles launched at Israel since the end of the ceasefire in Gaza in March 2025. This includes at least one attack launched in coordination with Iran during the war.

Houthi leaders have framed their recent attacks as continued support for the Palestinian cause, but in all likelihood, they are a way for Iran, whose media outlets have been trumpeting the strikes, to land blows against Israel without paying the price of another conventional conflict on its territory.

Iranian Threats Reach Beyond the Middle East

During Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott warned, “the threat of sleeper cells or sympathizers acting on their own, or at the behest of Iran has never been higher.” Over the past decade and a half, the Islamic Republic has attempted numerous kidnappings and killings in the United States, including a half-baked attempt on President Donald Trump’s life. There have also been reports of Iranian activity in the United Kingdom and Germany.

Additionally, a U.S. government factsheet cautioned, “Despite a declared ceasefire and ongoing negotiations towards a permanent solution, Iranian-affiliated cyber actors and hacktivist groups may still conduct malicious cyber activity.” Malicious Iranian cyber actors have targeted Americans and U.S. critical infrastructure for more than a decade.

The U.S. and Israel Cannot Overlook the Shadow War

While both nations operate in the shadows, Iran deserves special mention. Tehran’s targets reach far beyond Israel. And so long as Iranian asymmetric or covert activity is not treated as a direct attack by Iran itself, the regime is unlikely to change course, be it by reining in its regional proxies or terminating its transnational terrorist apparatus. For every attack launched by elements of Iran’s Axis of Resistance or a gun for hire, the regime in Tehran should know that it will have more to lose than to gain. As the cycle of violence that preceded the Iran-backed October 7 terrorist attack against Israel has shown, even low-level and deniable proxy activity can escalate into open conflict.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow and senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Bridget Toomey is a research analyst. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow the authors on X @therealBehnamBT and @BridgetKToomey. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.