Israel: Now the Dominant Military Power in the Middle East?

Israel: A Regional Hegemon with Iran Defeated?

In the wake of Israel’s surprise attack on Iran on June 13, it has become clear that Israel’s military is now among the strongest in the Middle East. For many years, Iran was able to expand its role in the region, funding and arming proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and also the Palestinian territories. Now, Iran’s nuclear program has suffered setbacks, and the country’s air defenses and ballistic missile program appear to be in tatters. These events put a larger spotlight on Israel as a potential regional hegemonic power.

Israel’s rise to power in the Middle East comes after many years of confronting threats. Israel’s success has come due to its close partnership with the United States. For instance, the Trump administration ordered the bombing of several nuclear sites in Iran after Israel had shown that Iran could be bombed for a week and a half without Israel suffering any military losses. Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, killing 28 people and wounding thousands. However, Iran’s military was shown to be inept at repelling the attacks delivered by Israel’s F-35s, F-15s, and other aircraft.

When a country becomes very powerful in any region or globally, it inevitably will face new challenges. For instance, consider the challenges the US faced after the end of the Cold War. George H.W. Bush promised a potential “new world order” in 1991. The US immediately faced challenges, not only with Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait but also with intervention in the Balkans and then the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Hegemony often presents challenges of this kind. For instance, Athens’s rise to power in the Greek world in the 5th century BC eventually led to the Peloponnesian War and the ruin of Athens.

Israel’s rise to power in the Middle East is relatively recent. When Israel was founded in 1948, it faced invasion by numerous Arab states. Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, Israel struggled to acquire weapons to confront Soviet-armed countries such as Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt and Syria. When Israel was able to defeat these countries and make peace with Egypt, it found that the new Iranian regime was looming as an adversary. In addition, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq posed a threat up until the Gulf War. A close partnership with the US beginning in the 1960s led to a doctrine of Qualitative Military Edge, in which Israel pursued a defense policy of being able to confront any combination of enemies in the region.

Israel’s fortunes changed rapidly in the last quarter century. Adversaries such as Saddam were overthrown. The Gulf countries moved closer to peace with Jerusalem. All that remained as adversaries appeared to be Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah. Israel underestimated closer threats, such as Hamas. Hamas, which is hosted by Qatar and has been backed by Turkey, poses a complex challenge because it receives support from Western allies. However, in the wake of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Hamas has been weakened in more than 630 days of war.

The Hamas attack also set in motion an Iranian-backed multi-front war against Israel. Tehran overplayed its hand. Israel was able to defeat Hezbollah in November 2024, and this weakened the Assad regime in Syria. Assad’s regime was an ally of Iran and Russia. It was overthrown in December 2024. With the Syrian regime gone, Israel’s road to strike Iran was paved. Tehran didn’t expect the strikes that took place on June 13.

Now, Iran has lost out on its nuclear program and ballistic missiles that it has used to threaten the Middle East. Iran’s drones also failed against Israel in the 12-day war. Israel intercepted almost all the drone threats.

Israel’s Air Force Rules 

Israel today sits astride the Middle East because of the air power of the Israel Air Force. Israel’s air defense systems are almost among the most integrated and capable in the world. In terms of ground forces, Israel may not appear to be as large as the Egyptian army on paper. However, the reality is that Egypt has not exerted significant power in the region for decades. It focuses more internally or on dealing with its chaotic neighbors, Libya and Sudan.

The Gulf countries together possess impressive armaments, and many of them have spent lavishly on their defense procurement in recent years. The UAE and Bahrain are peace partners with Israel. Saudi Arabia is expected to be a peace partner one day. This leaves the Jewish state with very few adversaries in the region.

In many ways, Israel’s success in building an impressive defense machine is due to the close partnership with the US and the collaboration between US and Israeli defense companies. Israel’s defense exports, for instance, continue to break new records.

The question for policymakers and Israel’s friends and allies is whether regional hegemony will be good for Israel. A more assertive Israel has still become bogged down in a long war in Gaza. Long wars against insurgents are not beneficial for powerful countries; they tend to erode the country’s strength. The US learned this in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The Soviet Union learned this lesson in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and Napoleon learned it in Spain.

A new sense of regional power could also lead the country not to be as flexible regarding peace talks with Syria or Lebanon. It could lead to a decision to clamp down on the Palestinians rather than work toward two states and peace with Riyadh. This is the choice Israel will face as it feels the future is up for grabs. In addition, nature always abhors a vacuum. Other countries and their influences will pour into the Middle East.

For instance, Turkey is a NATO member and has often been among the harshest critics of Israel’s policies. Ankara is also very close with the Trump administration. Doha helped with the Iranian ceasefire and hosts Hamas. It will also want a say in what comes next in the region.

These are potential challenges for the Jewish state as it weighs its newfound power.

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.