European Effort to Halt Israel-Iran Conflict Falters

Latest Developments

• No Breakthrough In Talks: Iran rejected an effort by European foreign ministers to coax it back into negotiations for a nuclear deal and de-escalate the war between Iran and Israel. All sides left empty-handed from a meeting in Geneva on June 20, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying that there was no room for negotiations “until Israeli aggression stops.” The ministers, representing Britain, France, Germany, and the European Union, reportedly urged Aragchi to engage directly with the Trump administration, but he refused.
• Very Hard to Pause Conflict: President Donald Trump said on June 20 that Israel’s successes in Operation Rising Lion make it “very hard” to pause the conflict. “If somebody is winning, it’s a little bit harder to do than if somebody is losing,” he told reporters. Trump also downplayed Europe’s negotiation efforts, saying, “Iran doesn’t want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us.” On June 19, the White House said that Trump will decide whether to join Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear program “within two weeks.”  
• Backchannel Meeting Attempt Collapses: Axios reported on June 21 that Trump was open to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposal to host backchannel meetings between high-level Iranian and U.S. officials in Istanbul this week. The effort collapsed when Iranian officials were unable to reach Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to authorize the talks. Khamenei is believed to be in hiding due to assassination concerns.

FDD Expert Response

“Europe’s positions related to the lack of civil justification for the regime’s nuclear efforts and concern for the ongoing Iranian missile war against civilian population centers are commendable and are the result of increasing trans-Atlantic unity on the Iranian threat. But time will tell what future diplomatic role Europe may play in this crisis, because Iran is looking to have friend and foe alike mobilized against Israel to limit its losses.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“The absence of any progress at these talks proves that Iran remains adamantly opposed to compromise on the issues that matter: its nuclear weapons program and its missile capabilities. Israel has no reason to stop its campaign of airstrikes, while the Europeans and the United States are one step closer to jettisoning diplomacy altogether.” — Ben Cohen, Senior Analyst and Rapid Response Director

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘Blood of Thousands of Israelis is on His Hands’: IRGC Commander Who Backed October 7 Massacre Among Key Leaders Eliminated in IDF Precision Strikes,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel Eliminates Additional Nuclear Weapons Facilities, Internal Security Forces in Iran,” FDD Flash Brief

“23 Wounded in Latest Iranian Missile Attacks on Israeli Civilians,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel Targets Arak Heavy Water Reactor and Weaponization Sites, Destroys Additional Missile Launchers in Iran,” FDD Flash Brief