‘From Western Iran To Tehran:’ Israel Claims Air Superiority Over Iranian Skies as it Braces For Further Retaliation

Latest Developments

• Israel Claims Control of Iranian Airspace: The IDF announced on June 14 that it had established air superiority “from western Iran to Tehran,” after an overnight operation involving 70 military aircraft targeting some 40 sites near the Iranian capital. “Tehran is no longer immune; the capital is exposed to Israeli strikes,” stated IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin. Security officials reported that the Israeli Air Force has now destroyed the majority of Iran’s air defense systems. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that “in the very near future you will see Israeli Air Force jets over the skies of Tehran — we will strike every site and every target of the Ayatollah’s regime.”
• Key Nuclear Scientists Eliminated: Israel released the names of nine key nuclear scientists eliminated during the opening strikes of “Operation Rising Lion” in the early hours of June 13.  Their identities are: Fereydoon Abbasi, an expert in nuclear engineering; Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji, a physics expert; Akbar Motalebi Zadeh, a chemical engineering expert; Saeed Barji, a materials engineering expert; Amir Hassan Fakhahi, another physics expert; Abd al-Hamid Minousheher, an expert in reactor physics; Mansour Asgari, a physics expert; Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari Daryani, an expert in nuclear engineering; and Ali Bakhouei Katirimi, a mechanical expert. Israel said these scientists were working to advance Iran’s nuclear weapons procurement.
• Israeli Casualties from Iranian Attacks: Iran launched four waves of ballistic missile attacks at Israel overnight on June 13-14, killing three Israeli civilians and injuring some 80 others. Two of the three Israeli fatalities were identified as Etti Cohen Engel and Yisrael Aloni, of Ramat Gan and Rishon Lezion respectively, while a three-month-old baby was rescued from the rubble of the Rishon Lezion attack. The Islamic Republic reportedly attempted to fire 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel, but the ongoing Israeli offensive efforts, including airstrikes against ready-to-launch missiles and storage facilities in Iran, lowered the number to less than 200 , aimed largely at Israel’s population centers. The IDF stated on June 14 that it had eliminated the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ surface-to-surface missile array.

FDD Expert Response

“While Israel is steadily degrading Iran’s enriched uranium supply chain and ability to produce new fuel for atomic weapons, key questions remain: how secure are Tehran’s enriched uranium stocks against diversion to secret sites? Iran has most certainly hidden away quantities of advanced centrifuges that it could use in a secret enrichment facility. Ideally, Israel’s elimination of the “brain trust” echelon of nuclear weapons scientists will help avoid weaponization, but intelligence people on the ground and fighters in the skies must guard against desperate Iranian moves to produce a functional nuclear device.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“While a definitive assessment of Iran’s remaining long-range missile capabilities is not known, there is clear evidence of the regime’s intent to target Israel. Iran has attempted to strike key Israeli military infrastructure, such as the Defense Ministry and likely other IDF assets. At the same time, Iran is deliberately targeting civilian population centers, underscoring its dual objective of inflicting damage to Israeli military and civilian infrastructure. If the IDF succeeds in striking known Iranian launch sites, it could significantly degrade the regime’s missile threat in the near term and reduce the frequency and effectiveness of future attacks during this war.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Like the regime’s nuclear facilities, Iran’s missile arsenal is dispersed. It includes both above ground and subterranean bases and launch platforms. Israel will need to sustain its campaign in order to deter future missile strikes and eventually eliminate the capability altogether.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Iran Launches Dozens of Ballistic Missiles at Israel,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel’s Strike Changes Everything in Iran,” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

“Iran’s Lies About Its Nuclear Plans Finally at an End,” by Mark Montgomery and Ben Cohen

“Israel targets Iran’s nuclear sites and senior military figures,” by Janatan Sayeh

“‘Before There Is Nothing Left’: Trump Warns of Devastation in Iran if Nuclear Deal Not Reached as World Leaders Caution Against Escalation,” FDD Flash Brief