‘IDF Failed in its Mission to Protect Civilians’: Report Into IDF’s October 7 Failures Released

Latest Developments

• Not Prepared for Surprise Attack: The IDF on February 27 released its first internal investigation into Israel’s failure to prevent Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre in southern Israel, during which 1,200 Israeli and foreign citizens, mostly civilians, were brutally murdered and over 250 taken hostage. “On October 7th, the IDF failed in its mission to protect Israeli civilians,” the report concluded. “It was not prepared for a large-scale surprise attack.” The report called for structural reforms in Israel’s intelligence gathering and a shift from conflict management to proactive threat elimination.
• Israel Viewed Sinwar as a Pragmatist, Believed Hamas was Deterred: The report admitted that Israeli intelligence believed Hamas was deterred from ground invasions after Operation “Guardian of the Walls” in May 2021 and that Yahya Sinwar, the Iran-backed terror group’s leader, was a pragmatist who did not seek a major escalation with Israel. Instead, Israeli intelligence focused on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran. Despite knowing of Hamas’s invasion plans, codenamed “Jericho Wall” years before, it was deemed unrealistic based on flawed assumptions about Hamas’s intentions and capabilities, leading the IDF to retain its lower alert levels despite signs of preparation on the eve of the attack.
• Prevented From Forming Accurate Situational Assessment: In the chaos that reigned after 5,000 Hamas-led terrorists broke through the Gaza border barrier into Israel, “the chain of command and control of the Southern Gaza Brigade was severely disrupted,” preventing the IDF’s general staff from forming an accurate situational assessment and resulting in a slow and insufficient response. Only later did the IDF learn that its Gaza Division, which monitored the border, had been “defeated” for several hours.

FDD Expert Analysis

“The IDF deserves credit for conducting a painful, thorough, and necessary assessment of what happened on October 7 to ensure the needed reforms are adopted. This assessment is vital because the only regret of the terrorist enemies of Israel and the United States is that the barbaric October 7 murders were not more successful. Terrorist groups will try again if they have the means. Key themes that emerge are incorrect assumptions about adversaries, overconfidence, overreliance on technology, insufficient ground force readiness, and inadequate forward-positioned combat capacity. Israel, like the United States, confronts multiple adversaries at the same time, and we cannot build the necessary military capability, capacity, and readiness and prevent disasters without significantly increased defense spending.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

“The signs that Hamas and its allies were planning to infiltrate southern Israel had been evident for years. Subtle hints from terrorist leaders and military exercises simulating fighters storming Israeli bases were among the warning signs that went largely unheeded. Thus, Israel learned valuable lessons on October 7, and now it is crucial that corrective measures are implemented to prevent another disaster.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“The investigations by the IDF into the failures during the lead-up and on the day of the October 7 Hamas attack are an important part of Israel’s process of learning from the past. The IDF has revealed key aspects of how Hamas planned for the attack and where shortcomings led to disaster on the border. Now, Israel can rebuild and learn from the past, setting in motion the key decisions that will lead to security in the decades to come.” — Seth J. Frantzman, Adjunct Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“IDF releases its first probe into October 7 failures as the Shejaiya raid ends,” by Seth J. Frantzman

“Why wasn’t October 7 prevented? Time to look to the West,” by Seth J. Frantzman

“False hope and fracture kept Israel from seeing Hamas’ evil plan,” by Jonathan Schanzer