December 23, 2024 | Policy Brief
Can Syria’s New Leader Unite Armed Factions Into One Army?
December 23, 2024 | Policy Brief
Can Syria’s New Leader Unite Armed Factions Into One Army?
Syria’s new leader Ahmad al-Sharaa – who also uses the nom-de-guerre Abu Mohammad al Jolani — has pledged to dissolve existing armed factions and integrate their fighters into a newly formed national army under the auspices of a unified Ministry of Defense. However, key questions loom over the evolving dynamics in Syria: Will the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) integrate into a new army? Will Turkey allow such a development? How will al-Sharaa address the integration of militias that reconciled with the regime of former dictator Bashar al-Assad? And will al-Sharaa’s recent appointment of new regional governors with ties to Islamist factions alienate the U.S. administration, only days after senior U.S. officials led by Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Barbara Leaf met with him in Damascus, describing their discussions as “very productive” and scrapping the $10mn reward for his arrest?
Diverging Loyalties Pose Major Challenges to Military Integration
The multiple armed factions in Syria were united in opposing Assad, but sharply divided by ideology, visions for Syria’s future, foreign alliances, and ethnic and religious affiliations. Integrating these groups into a unified national army requires the dismantling of loyalties to foreign states and the resolution of localized grievances. Complicating this effort, many militias have also taken part in crimes against Syrians during the conflict.
Turkey’s Role: Will It Push the SNA Toward Integration or Sustain Its Campaign Against the SDF?
Al Modon, a Lebanese media outlet, reported that certain factions within the SNA continue to resist dissolution. This resistance appears closely tied to Turkey’s strategic priorities, as Ankara seeks to maintain these groups as tools for sustained military pressure on the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in key areas such as Kobane and the broader northeast.
The prospect of these factions integrating into a centralized national army hinges largely on the fate of the SDF, which is dominated by the Kurdish Peoples’ Defense Units (YPG), whom Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to destroy if they refuse to dissolve. Were al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group to initiate a military campaign against the SDF in the northeast, the Turkey-backed factions might well align with his calls for a unified national army. Ultimately, the decision rests with Turkey. Unless Al-Sharaa initiates a military engagement with the SDF, the Turkish-backed groups in Syria will likely not integrate into a unified Syrian military.
Al-Sharaa’s Appointments Signal Alarming Concerns for the U.S.
Al-Sharaa appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra, a leading figure in HTS, as defense minister in the interim government on December 21, alongside three military leaders as provincial governors — positions usually reserved for civilians. Azzam Gharib — until September 2024 a military commander in the Jabha Al Shamiya, a faction within the SNA — was appointed as governor of Aleppo, while Ahrar al-Sham, an Islamist group backed by Turkey and Qatar, saw its military commanders Amer Sheikh and Hassan Soufan appointed as governors of Rif Dimashq and Latakia respectively.
The appointment of military leaders to roles traditionally held by civilian administrators directly contradicts al-Sharaa’s claims of moderation and pragmatism, especially given the extremist leanings of some appointees. During the U.S. delegation’s visit to Damascus, Leaf declared: “We will judge by deeds, not just by words.” Those words will themselves be tested by Washington’s deeds going forward.
Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow him on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.