‘Now Hamas Has A Choice to Make’: After Lebanon Truce, Hamas Indicates Openness to Deal in Gaza

Latest Developments

• Biden Signals Renewed Push for Gaza Deal in Coming Days: Following Israel’s truce with Hezbollah on November 27, Hamas officials expressed willingness to revive ceasefire and hostage release negotiations in Gaza, months after the latest efforts by the United States, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar faltered. A senior official of the Iran-backed terrorist group said, “We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners.” In his announcement of the ceasefire with Hezbollah, President Joe Biden said: “Now, Hamas has a choice to make. Their only way out is to release the hostages, including American citizens which they hold, and, in the process, bring an end to the fighting, which would make possible a surge of humanitarian [relief].”

• Hamas Derailed Previous Ceasefire Talks: Hamas officials have previously claimed to be open to a deal, but with each effort, Hamas refused to drop its demands, among them a permanent cessation of hostilities and full withdrawal of IDF forces, the release of Palestinians held in Israeli jails — including those convicted of terrorist attacks — and guarantees that it will continue to have a political role in Gaza after the ceasefire. Approximately 97 hostages whom Hamas terrorists abducted on October 7, 2023, remain in captivity, including seven American citizens.

• Turkey Positions Itself as Mediator: Qatar and Egypt had previously served as mediators between Israel, the United States, and Hamas, but in his speech, Biden mentioned Turkey as one of the intermediaries. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told members of his Justice and Development (AKP) Party that Turkey was “ready to provide any contribution for the massacre in Gaza to end,” despite his year-long attacks on Israel, including comparing Netanyahu to Hitler, calling him a “vampire” and “psychopath, and threatening a military attack on Israel. U.S. officials walked back Biden’s statement, saying that Turkey is not considered a mediator but was mentioned because some Hamas officials now reside in Turkey. Still, Turkey was included among the list of negotiating partners in a subsequent X post by Biden.  

FDD Expert Response

“Despite Hamas’s seemingly renewed interest in reaching a ceasefire deal, there is no indication that their offer differs from what they’ve previously stated. Since the beginning of the war, Hamas has expressed interest in reaching a deal, but the crux of the matter lies in the fact that such a deal must align with their terms. Central to their demands is the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, a move that they view as essential for ensuring the group’s survival and future regeneration.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“In its final days of in office, the Biden White House took the bizarre decision to include Turkey in the ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Since the war on Hamas began, Ankara has done everything to promote the interests of Hamas — and only Hamas. In recent days, it has been capitalizing on its pro-terrorism position by considering formally hosting the terrorist organization on its soil. There is no constructive role that Erdogan could play in these negotiations. It is more likely that he is interested in gaining lucrative contracts in the reconstruction of Gaza and making money out of the ordeal. Turkey, since the October 7 atrocities, has transformed into a state sponsor of terrorism.” — Sinan Ciddi, Non-resident Senior Fellow

“Hamas now recognizes that it is effectively isolated in its fight against Israel. Over the past 13 months, the group has relied on the concept of the unity of theaters of resistance, but it has become clear that its support options are limited. While the Houthis and certain Iranian proxies in Iraq continue their attacks, their impact remains marginal compared to Hezbollah’s. Hamas has suffered significant losses among its commanders and has been militarily weakened. Desperate for survival, it will likely pursue any opportunity to endure as a political and military entity. However, Israel must avoid falling into a trap where a ceasefire would secure Hamas’s continued existence.” — Ahmad Sharawi, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“Israel’s only option on Iran is ending Khamenei’s regime,” by Jacob Nagel and Mark Dubowitz

“State Department Warns Turkey Against Hosting Hamas Headquarters,” by Sinan Ciddi and Sophia Epley

“Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor,” by Seth J. Frantzman