UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Planning Imminent Visit to Tehran

Latest Developments

• Grossi Seeks New Cooperation with Iranian Officials on Nuclear Program: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on November 6 that he may travel to Iran in “a few days” in hopes of obtaining new cooperation from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). Grossi intends to discuss key issues including Iran’s barring of several IAEA inspectors, enhancing IAEA monitoring, and resolving outstanding agency concerns about Iran’s past nuclear activities.

• Iran’s Lack of Cooperation with IAEA Continues: In May, Grossi returned from a trip to Iran without an agreement regarding the implementation of a 2023 Joint Statement of cooperation. In the statement, the Iranians declared their “readiness to continue its cooperation and provide further information and access to address the outstanding safeguards issues.”

• Maximum Pressure Sanctions May Return With Trump: President-elect Donald Trump said on November 5 that Iran “can’t have nuclear weapons.” The statement suggests that he plans to return to his maximum pressure campaign from his first term and apply greater pressure on Iran to comply with IAEA safeguards obligations.

FDD Expert Response

“The regime in Tehran needs to think very carefully right now. A decision to race forward in the nuclear arena on the mistaken belief it would build leverage ahead of January 20 might be a catastrophic miscalculation.” — Richard Goldberg,  Senior Advisor

“No doubt, Tehran will continue expanding its atomic infrastructure and threaten to weaponize its program as leverage against Israel’s military successes in the region. But having and expanding eyes and ears on this program will be essential for any administration seeking to counter it. To that end, the IAEA’s missions must be vociferously supported by both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration if keeping Tehran’s theocrats from obtaining the bomb is the goal.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu,  Senior Fellow

“With Trump’s victory, the days of America tolerating Khamenei’s nuclear free-for-all are coming to a close. He would be well advised to start cooperating with the director general and IAEA.” — Andrea Stricker,  Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

FDD Background and Analysis

“Deterring Iran’s Dash to the Bomb,” by Orde Kittrie, Bradley Bowman and Behnam Ben Taleblu

“What to Know about Iran’s Nuclear Program,” by Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero

“IAEA Chief’s Visit to Iran Fails to Sway Tehran on Nuclear Cooperation,” FDD Flash Brief

“Analysis of the IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report – August 2024,” by David Albright and Andrea Stricker

“Iran Failed to Declare New Nuclear Facility, IAEA Reports,” FDD Flash Brief