October 22, 2024 | Policy Brief

UN-Backed Monitors Say Access to Food Improves in Gaza

October 22, 2024 | Policy Brief

UN-Backed Monitors Say Access to Food Improves in Gaza

A new quarterly report from a UN-backed monitoring group says that only 6 percent of Gazans face “catastrophic” food insecurity, the lowest figure reported since the start of the war. The assessment conflicts with the Biden administration’s view that Israeli actions are “contributing to an accelerated deterioration of the conditions in Gaza,” which it says may warrant a suspension of military sales and assistance.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a partnership between UN agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that monitors food shortages across the globe and assigns them a severity ranking of one (I) to five (V), with five indicating catastrophe or famine. In December 2023, the IPC reported that 17 percent of Gaza residents were in Phase V. The IPC’s next quarterly report, released in March this year, found that 30 percent of Gaza residents were in Phase V and forecasted the number would increase to 50 percent, heralding an “imminent” famine by the end of May, which would entail hundreds of deaths each week from starvation.

The IPC’s warning led to a global outcry, including assertions by Samantha Power, the head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, and Cindy McCain, the head of the World Food Programme, that a full-blown famine was already underway in Gaza. These assertions were incorrect. In its next report, the IPC found that the percentage of Gaza residents in Phase V had fallen to 15 percent rather than rising to 50. Still, the IPC projected the percentage in Phase V would increase to 22 percent, adding that only a ceasefire could reduce the risk of famine.

Despite widespread claims of Israeli obstruction, UN data showed that the number of trucks delivering goods to Gaza had begun to increase substantially in early March, even before the IPC issued its famine warning. Whereas 2,874 loads arrived in February, the number increased to 4,993 in March and 5,671 in April. Israeli scholars, in coordination with the country’s Ministry of Health, studied the caloric content of deliveries and found it sufficient to meet more than 100 percent of the population’s daily needs.

The IPC’s new report forecasts that the number of Gaza residents in Phase V will nearly triple in the coming months, reaching 16 percent before April next year. Despite its previous forecasts being off the mark, there is reason for concern. Israeli government data shows a dramatic decrease in goods crossing the Gaza border in October. As of October 12, only 465 trucks delivered their cargo to Gaza. Even if this number rose proportionally by the end of the month, it would be a far cry from the 4,235 deliveries in September. Likewise, the data show only 5,840 tons of food had arrived by October 12, compared to 75,899 tons in September.

What remains in dispute is whether the decreasing availability of food and other necessities in Gaza reflects Israeli restrictions or growing disorder and violence within the coastal strip. In a letter to the Israeli government dated October 13, the Biden administration made a passing reference to “increased lawlessness” as a cause of shortages in Gaza but emphasized alleged Israeli culpability and threatened to suspend military sales and assistance if the Israelis did not make significant changes within 30 days.

Such threats are premature given the IPC’s conclusion that food security in Gaza has continually improved over the past six months. Israel has demonstrated its readiness to ensure a sustained increase in the supply of food and other necessities. The administration should invest greater effort in determining why deliveries have decreased so sharply over the past three weeks before engaging in a public feud with an ally.

David Adesnik is research director and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from David, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on Twitter @adesnik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Issues:

Issues:

International Organizations Israel

Topics:

Topics:

Gaza City Israel Israelis Joe Biden Samantha Power Twitter United Nations United States Agency for International Development World Food Programme