U.S., European Powers Decline to Censure Iran’s Failure to Comply With IAEA Demands

Latest Developments

During the quarterly meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors, the United States, along with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) issued a joint statement on September 11 condemning Iran’s failure to comply with the board’s demands as put forth in a June 2024 censure resolution passed by the IAEA’s 35-member board. At the same time, the board of governors declined to consider a new censure resolution, provide Iran with a firm deadline for compliance, or refer the matter to the UN Security Council (UNSC) for countermeasures.

The statement repeated a previous warning by the parties that, absent Iran’s immediate compliance, the board might “in the coming months” direct the IAEA to issue a comprehensive report on Iran’s nonproliferation safeguards violations. Such a report could push the board to refer Tehran’s case to the UNSC. With or without a referral, however, Washington and Europe will be forced to consider snapping back all UN Iran sanctions that remain lifted by the defunct 2015 Iran nuclear deal and its associated UNSC Resolution 2231, since the mechanism to re-impose the sanctions and the sanctions themselves expire in October 2025.

Expert Analysis

“As expected, the IAEA board declined to take serious action to penalize Iran for its advances toward nuclear weapons and decades-long shredding of IAEA safeguards. This failure allows Tehran more time to continue perfecting a nuclear weapon behind closed doors, which the regime could pair with a robust nuclear fuel breakout capability at a time of its choosing.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“Why should Iran take the IAEA seriously if it can spend years breaching its most fundamental nuclear obligations and suffer nothing more than strongly worded statements?” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

No Board Censure or Referral to the UN Security Council

The strongly worded U.S.-E3 statement detailed and condemned Iran’s failure to comply with the board’s eight demands from June, including that Tehran cooperate and provide credible explanations in relation to a multi-year IAEA investigation into the regime’s nuclear weapons work, reinstate IAEA inspector accreditation, disclose information about new nuclear facilities, and restore IAEA monitoring and surveillance at key sites. The statement concluded, “Due to Iran’s failure over several years to address the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency continues to report that it is unable to assure that Iran’s nuclear [program] is exclusively peaceful.” The four countries also noted that Iran had not cooperated despite three other board resolutions since 2020.

The statement cautioned that the board may authorize a comprehensive IAEA report, which typically builds support for sanctions, on Tehran’s safeguards violations. The statement also included a warning the United States has repeated since at least 2022 about “making a finding under Article 19 of Iran’s CSA Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA).” This refers to remedial action that the board may take toward a non-compliant member state when the IAEA “is not able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material required to be safeguarded under the Agreement to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.” Additionally, IAEA Statute Article XII.C entails, among other measures: “The Board shall report the non-compliance to all members and to the Security Council and General Assembly of the United Nations,” meaning the board could direct the UNSC to act regarding Iran’s non-compliance.

Since China and Russia’s closer ties with Iran mean the two would certainly block new UNSC resolutions against the Islamic Republic, Washington and the E3 could resort to re-imposing all UN Iran sanctions that remain suspended by UNSC Resolution 2231.

Related Analysis

“Iran Needs an Ultimatum, Not a New Deal,” by Richard Goldberg and Andrea Stricker

“Analysis of the IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report – August 2024,” by David Albright and Andrea Stricker

“Iran: The Next Nuclear Weapons State?” by Andrea Stricker