IAEA Reports Iran Increased Stockpiles of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium

Latest Developments

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released two new reports on Iran’s nuclear advances and non-compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) on August 29. The reports — published in advance of a September 9 meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors — indicate that Tehran has added to key enriched uranium stockpiles and installed hundreds of fast uranium enrichment centrifuge machines. This provides the regime with the ability to rapidly make fuel for up to 15 nuclear weapons, according to new estimates issued by the Institute for Science and International Security.

The IAEA reports also show the Islamic Republic failed to comply with a censure resolution passed by the IAEA board last June demanding that Iran cooperate with the IAEA to resolve a multi-year investigation into the regime’s nuclear weapons work, reinstate access for key agency inspectors, permit enhanced IAEA monitoring, and provide details on missing nuclear material and the construction of new nuclear facilities. The United States had also floated authorizing the IAEA to issue a comprehensive report detailing Tehran’s possible nuclear weapons work. However, The Wall Street Journal reported on August 29 that the United States and its European partners were unlikely to censure Iran at the next IAEA meeting or authorize such reporting.

Expert Analysis

“Last June, Washington announced it was ‘prepared to continue to increase pressure on Iran should its non-cooperation with the IAEA continue.’ Yet the Biden administration will likely refrain from passing new IAEA censure of Iran, meaning the regime’s nuclear extortion will continue along with its likely efforts to secretly master the construction of nuclear weapons. Facts are stubborn: Most of Iran’s nuclear weapons expansion has occurred since the election of Biden-Harris and their decision to abandon the pressure strategy of the previous administration.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO 

“Iran’s failure to comply with the board’s demands should mean the United States and its European allies immediately refer Tehran’s case to the UN Security Council for reinstatement of UN Iran sanctions. However, the regime has successfully locked Washington into a cycle of attempting to prevent new nuclear escalation or an Iranian attack on Israel. Shamefully, the Biden administration is falling victim to Iran’s blackmail and pulling its punches while the regime furthers both those aims.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

Dropping Breakout Time Fuels Mounting Weaponization Concerns

According to the IAEA, Iran added to key enriched uranium stockpiles, further augmenting the regime’s ability to make weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for multiple nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks. The Institute for Science and International Security now estimates that Iran could make enough WGU for up to 15 nuclear weapons in five months, producing enough WGU for the first nine weapons in under a month. Since the IAEA’s May report, the regime now has enough 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU) to directly fuel four nuclear weapons. If Iran opted to enrich 60 percent material further to the goal of 90 percent, or weapons-grade, it could do so within a matter of days. The IAEA pointedly admonished Iran, “The continued production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to do so, adds to the Agency’s concerns.”

In addition, Iran followed through on threats to install hundreds of new centrifuges in response to the board’s June censure. At the Fordow enrichment site, Tehran completed the installation of nearly 1,400 more fast-generation IR-6 centrifuges, while at the main enrichment site at Natanz, it completed the installation of hundreds of IR-2m and began enriching in hundreds of IR-4 centrifuges.

These developments add to the concern that Iran is secretly working on the process of constructing nuclear devices. Around March, the United States and Israel reportedly collected intelligence that Iranian scientists were conducting activities relevant to developing a nuclear explosive device. The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence subsequently omitted an oft-used phrase about an absence of such activities in a July report to Congress. In its latest reporting, the IAEA repeated its long-standing assessment that it is unable to determine whether Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.

Related Analysis

“Exploiting America’s Declining Pressure: Iran’s Nuclear Escalation Over Time,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker

“Iran: The Next Nuclear Weapon State?” by Andrea Stricker

“Israel’s Approach to Iran May be Getting Bolder,” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz