CIA Director Reports Hamas Military Commanders Pressing Yahya Sinwar to End War

Latest Developments

Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar is reportedly facing growing pressure from his commanders to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, according to comments attributed to CIA director Bill Burns at a closed-door meeting on July 13. A CNN report on July 16 cited an unidentified source who described Burns’ assessment at the meeting that senior Hamas commanders were tired from more than nine months of fighting and were pressuring Sinwar to accept a ceasefire deal. Burns, who has represented the United States at multiple rounds of ceasefire talks in Egypt and Qatar, said that the pressure from the commanders means that the chance of Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire is greater now than in the recent past, although he added that the final stages of negotiations are always difficult.

Expert Analysis

“Hamas is feeling the heat. Egypt appears to have quietly but finally started to secure the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the way Hamas has re-armed and replenished its resources. In the meantime, the Israelis appear to have increasingly accurate intelligence on key Hamas assets. The war may not end tomorrow. But one gets a sense that Hamas is finally reaching its breaking point.” — Jonathan Schanzer, FDD Senior Vice President for Research

“Hamas’s Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, has brought disaster on Gaza in nine months of war following the Hamas massacre of October 7. Hamas leaders may now be trying to salvage what they can from the defeat that they face in Gaza due to Sinwar’s cruel and failed war. If so, that is good news for the region because it means Hamas knows it is losing. Hamas must be handed a decisive defeat to deter it and others from ever committing another October 7 massacre.” — Seth J. Frantzman, FDD Adjunct Fellow

Direction of War Turns Against Hamas

The revelations mark a change in tone from reports in early June that Sinwar — who has the final say in approving a ceasefire — believed that despite heavy casualties in Gaza, Hamas had “the Israelis right where we want them,” pointing to the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor requesting arrest warrants for Israeli leaders and several European states unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state. In the past few months, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) limited Hamas’s supply lines through the Rafah border with Egypt, raided Hamas weapons caches and command centers, and killed Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade commander, Rafa’a Salameh. The United States and other nations have also increased pressure on Hamas to sign a new U.S.-proposed ceasefire proposal.

IDF Assesses Hamas’s Morale in Decline

On July 10, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Knesset that 60 percent of Hamas fighters had either been killed or wounded as a result of the IDF’s operations and that the majority of Hamas’s 24 battalions had been broken up. According to IDF assessments reported by The Times of Israel on July 16, “Hamas is suffering from severe morale issues as the fighting goes on, and thousands are fleeing army operations and choosing not to fight.” Documents recovered by the IDF also indicate that the Iran-backed terrorist organization is running low on rocket-propelled grenades, assault rifles, and explosives.

Related Analysis

“Chief of Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Confirmed Killed,” FDD Flash Brief

“Netanyahu Dismisses Claim That Israel May Vacate the Philadelphi Corridor,” FDD Flash Brief

“Seventeen Countries Urge Hamas to Accept Ceasefire Proposal,” FDD Flash Brief