Iran to Significantly Increase Nuclear Enrichment Plant’s Breakout Capability

Latest Developments

A new analysis by David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, projects Iran will massively increase its ability to produce weapons-grade uranium (WGU) at the heavily fortified Fordow enrichment plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on June 13 that Iran is installing nearly 1,400 new advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges at Fordow. Albright’s estimate, detailed in a Washington Post article, indicates that when complete, Fordow’s enrichment capacity will increase by 360 percent, enabling Tehran to produce WGU for up to five nuclear weapons in a single month.

Iran began installing the new centrifuges in response to a censure resolution passed on June 5 by the IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors, which demanded that Tehran come into compliance with its nonproliferation obligations.

Expert Analysis

“We are getting hit with a double whammy: A massive expansion of enrichment capacity and an explosive revelation that weaponization work is taking place. Washington’s strategy of accommodating Iran has utterly failed.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

“Governments that downplayed Iran’s expansion at Fordow need to instead prepare military contingencies. The regime is executing its 2003-era plan to use underground Fordow, formerly known as Al Ghadir, to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium for nuclear weapons at the same time it has been caught working on weaponization.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

Hardened Breakout Capability

In a report seen by Reuters, the IAEA assessed that as of June 11, Iran had installed two cascades at Fordow each containing 174 IR-6 centrifuges — Tehran’s most powerful machine — and continued with the installation of four additional cascades. Iran told the IAEA it plans to install eight cascades overall, for a total of 1,392 new machines.

Previously at Fordow, Iran was using two interconnected cascades of 166 IR-6 centrifuges to enrich uranium to a purity level of 60 percent — itself around 95 to 99 percent of the effort to make WGU. Iran also has 1,044 older, slower IR-1 model machines installed at Fordow to produce 20 percent enriched uranium, which is technically about 90 percent of the effort to make WGU. In January 2023, the IAEA detected the presence of near 84 percent enriched uranium particles in the IR-6 cascades, raising concern that Iran was experimenting with increasing enrichment levels to near weapons grade.

Iran also told the IAEA it will install some 3,000 new centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment facility — 18 cascades of IR-2m advanced centrifuges — which have a reduced capacity to enrich uranium compared to the IR-6. Iran offered no completion date for those plans.

The added capacity at Fordow will greatly increase Iran’s ability to make 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU) and provides Tehran with a fortified facility to quickly produce 90 percent WGU and break out to nuclear weapons.

Diplomats interviewed by Reuters downplayed Iran’s move as “limited retaliation” to the IAEA board resolution since Iran has long prepared infrastructure to install the new machines. Washington, which initially opposed the censure and reportedly lobbied against it, has pledged to “respond accordingly” should Iran “implement these plans.”

“U.S., Israel Investigate Iran Nuclear Modeling,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Expands Uranium-Enrichment Capacity,” FDD Flash Brief

“Tehran’s Possible New Enrichment Plant,” by Andrea Stricker

“IAEA Members Vote to Censure Iran Over Nuclear Violations,” FDD Flash Brief