Democracy’s high stakes in Taiwan’s vote  

Excerpt

Taiwan’s upcoming election stands as a litmus test of the Chinese Communist Party’s political warfare strategy, specifically whether disinformation and military drills alone can bend Taipei’s will toward Beijing’s reunification designs. Yet, China’s bid to undermine Taiwan’s democracy also foreshadows its intent to influence the 2024 U.S. election — an act of subversion Washington cannot afford to ignore.  

This Saturday, 19 million Taiwanese voters will determine more than simply their next president and parliament; their choices will also profoundly impact the tenor of U.S.-China relations for the foreseeable future. With voters set to weigh in on various domestic issues, including inflation and energy security, the defining challenge casting a shadow over every ballot is how Taiwan should respond to the mainland’s growing aggression. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent warning to President Biden about China’s urgency to “resolve” Taiwan’s status — sooner rather than later — underscores the seriousness of today’s tensions in the Taiwan Strait. 

Having hinged its great-power resurgence on reunifying with Taiwan, China has understandably been loath to leave the island’s political fate to chance. Indeed, for 10 years running, Taiwan has been the world’s top target of disinformation, according to a Stockholm University study that tracks authoritarian influence. That trend continued this year, with China unleashing a torrent of new disinformation aimed at undermining the ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which has pledged closer ties to the U.S. other democratic powers — and bolstering opposition candidates seeking improved ties with the mainland. Chief among China’s other disinformation goals is sowing distrust about U.S. security guarantees should Beijing one day invade.  

Craig Singleton is a senior fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat.