The Hezbollah Two-Step

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah broke his month-long silence on Friday, delivering a much-anticipated address on the war in Gaza. There was a chance he might use the platform to declare all-out war with Israel conducted from Hezbollah’s base in Lebanon. He stopped short of that. But that certainly doesn’t mean that Hezbollah is going to stand down.

In fact, Hezbollah continues to attack. This morning, November 4,Israeli media reported that the Iran-backed terror group in Lebanon fired off a rocket carrying a whopping 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of explosives at Israel. The rocket looked like something out of a Mad Max movie, with a large barrel of explosives affixed to the body of the munition. The group continues to target Israel with anti-tank missiles and other weapons, as well.

Nasrallah’s speech certainly didn’t rule out such an escalation. But he did seem to try to distance himself and his terror group from the planning of the October 7 slaughter. He chewed up nearly 90 minutes of airtime glorifying Hamas’s attack, while underscoring that Hamas alone orchestrated the attacks of October 7 and that the “conflict is completely Palestinian.” This contradicts reports from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal that the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Lebanese proxy had helped plan the assault, train operatives, and more.

The day after the 10/7 pogrom, Hezbollah began launching limited attacks against Israel from Lebanese soil. Over the last four weeks, it has averaged nearly 20 strikes per day, based on what has been openly reported. One might even argue that the very possibility of a second front was what prompted the United States to send two carrier strike groups and 4,000 marines to the region.

The United States and Israel appear to be working hard right now to limit the current crisis in the Middle East to the Gaza Strip. The desire to prevent a full-blown regional war has been both implied and stated. Nasrallah knows as much. He stated during his speech that he intends to keep Israel and the United States on high alert by maintaining Hezbollah’s current military posture. He claimed that Hezbollah’s attacks are “unprecedented” and “significant” and show that Hezbollah is already a bona fide participant in Hamas’s war.

This is undeniably true. Under any other circumstances, the Israelis would have probably unloaded on Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon. But because destroying Hamas is the top priority, Israel has only responded one-for-one to Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks. One does get the sense, however, that there could be a limit to Israel’s patience. Indeed, there are some figures in Israel who are already advocating for a second front, in light of the ongoing attacks.

Nasrallah’s speech made it clear that Lebanon will remain an active front, so long as this crisis endures. He also indicated that the rockets are very likely to continue to fly out of Iraq and Yemen, where other Iranian proxies are active. The Houthi militant group out of Yemen has fired three long range rockets at Israel in recent days. And Iran-backed Shiite groups have struck repeatedly at American bases, too.

Nasrallah is clearly concerned about the American military presence in the Mediterranean Sea. He took a few shots at Washington in his speech, gloating about the failed military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But he also tried to assert that Israel is weak, given the perceived need for such formidable firepower to help contain the crisis. Of course, Israel didn’t ask for this, and it could clearly handle a northern front on its own. But the Israelis and the U.S. seem to agree: the best outcome right now would be for Iran and Hezbollah to watch helplessly as Israel removes a valuable chess piece—Hamas—from the regional board. Nasrallah seems to know this. But his speech indicated that he is not looking for a serious escalation right now.

Still, it is too early for high-fives. Nasrallah boasted that “all options are on the table” in Lebanon if the war continues. The specter of a multi-front, low-level conflict in the weeks ahead leaves ample room for bad mistakes and escalation. This is exactly what happened in 2006, when Hezbollah inadvertently provoked a disastrous war with Israel that led to widespread destruction in Lebanon.

Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. Follow him on X @JSchanzer.