December 12, 2022 | The Wall Street Journal
Why Iran’s Protests Could Topple the Regime
The country has a rich history of political dissent that has brought it to the edge of revolution.
December 12, 2022 | The Wall Street Journal
Why Iran’s Protests Could Topple the Regime
The country has a rich history of political dissent that has brought it to the edge of revolution.
Excerpt
Reports of the demise of Iran’s morality police were greatly exaggerated. There’s no evidence that the Interior Ministry has dissolved this force. It may have even been temporarily repurposed into riot control. This disappointing deflation of last week’s reporting reinforces the Central Intelligence Agency’s view that the current wave of unrest in Iran poses no threat to the regime.
But that view—colored by the disappointing results of the Arab Spring and of Western military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq—is too pessimistic. The Islamic Republic’s rulers are uncertain, fearful and increasingly incoherent in their public statements. They surely know that these demonstrations aim to foment revolution, not reform. And they have reason to worry that the demonstrators will be successful.
Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Follow Reuel on Twitter @ReuelMGerecht. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.