It is Clutch Time for Syria

Time is running out for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He will have to decide in the next few weeks whether his overture to the West is genuine or not. To Assad's credit a slew of events are pointing to his good faith, but he is still afraid to totally break loose from Iran's grip. Whatever decision the Syrian president makes will have a great impact on the region.

Assad has been opening to both the European Union and Israel. But Syria's main prize would be to get a clear relationship with Washington established. And it seems that after a long silence, Washington is more inclined to talk.

In fact, last week the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida reported that U.S. President George W. Bush apparently offered his Syrian counterpart to pressure Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights if Damascus promises to cut its ties with Tehran. Bush allegedly made this proposal in a letter recently presented to Assad by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during his visit to Damascus.

If Assad accepts the American deal, he will have to implement the agreement in the coming weeks. Time is of the essence since the Bush administration would like to ink such a deal before leaving office in January.

But what is really at the center of it all is the risk of the international tribunal to go ahead and try the culprits of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. In fact, the final report of Canadian judge and future prosecutor of the tribunal, Daniel Bellemare, should be published in Lebanon in December.

According to details leaked to the media, the report is damning for Syria, establishing the role of Assad's regime, its allies and agents in Lebanon in the murder of Hariri and describes in detail the various stages of the preparation of the attack.

Assad cannot sleep at night thinking that his regime's role could be exposed in the open in a United Nations sponsored arena. Syria would become overnight a pariah in the international community and this would put an indelible stain on Assad's legacy.

It is true that Assad has tried to put distance between those reportedly responsible for Hariri's murder and himself. First, his brother-in-law, former head of the security services Assef Shawkat; second, a slew of timely murders have made the list of potential witnesses shrink.

The real change in Assad's strategy has been his distancing from Hezbollah. This is all the more interesting as contrary to his father, Bashar Assad had a vassal relationship with Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah.

In typical Assad fashion, Syria is following a two-track strategy: distancing from Hezbollah and at the same time doing business as usual. That is why while no one can talk of a severed relationship with the Lebanese Shiite group (Hezbollah is still being supplied with weapons by Damascus), some events show that the honeymoon is over and the marriage is on a slippery slope.

Everything started when Hezbollah's most prized asset, legendary terror master Imad Mughnieh was killed in Damascus in February. The culprits could not be found and the results of the so-called investigation were clearly pushed under the rug.

But what is clear is that there is no way the killers could not have had a very close connection to the higher echelons of the Syrian security services. There is no way Mughnieh could have been killed without complicity from the inside.

So whether the Israelis were behind it or the Syrian regime itself makes no real difference. What is important is that Hezbollah operatives are not safe in Damascus anymore.

Second, recent reports show that Syria is trying to break up Hezbollah. In fact, Syria has reportedly resumed its contacts with the former secretary-general of Hezbollah and one of its co-founders, Sobhi Toufaili. Syria wants to strengthen Toufaili's faction and has promised it military aid and funding to weaken Hassan Nasrallah's wing.

Third, to show his good faith, Assad has allegedly informed Israel – through the Europeans – of planned Hezbollah abductions of Israeli citizens in several countries in Africa and in the Americas.

Fourth, last week the Iraqi Web site Al-Malaf ran a puzzling story. Interestingly, the always well informed Kuwaiti daily Al-Seyassah ran a similar story the next day.

According to diplomatic sources in Beirut cited by Al-Malaf, Nasrallah was poisoned by highly hazardous chemicals and has been in a very critical state in the past few days.

He was saved just in time by an Iranian medical team composed of 15 doctors, who flew to Beirut in an Iranian aircraft. Nasrallah was to have been transferred to Tehran, but the doctors managed to save him.

The likely culprits include Israel that has threatened to assassinate Nasrallah, but it could not have succeeded without complicity inside Hezbollah.

On Friday, Nasrallah went on Hezbollah's TV station, Al-Manar, to deny this story. So while the veracity of this story is very much in the air, what is sure is that there seems to be great tension and dissension inside Hezbollah between the Syrian wing and the Iranian one.

Assad seems to be sending signals to the West and even taking concrete steps, but at the same time he does not want to cut off the hand that feeds him: Tehran's. If Washington is ready to replace Tehran, then Assad would likely have no problems sacrificing Hezbollah.

This is the moment the United States has been waiting for: an opportunity to weaken Iran and get Syria on the West's side. But with the country focused on the Nov. 4 elections, will there be anyone around to move the system in the right direction?