Russia’s Message

Over the weekend, I was contacted by some good folks who support Georgia, the small country now under attack by Russia. I was asked if I had any ideas on how the Georgians might “mobilize European and US pubic opinion.”

I replied that I did not. European and American public opinion will – without much prodding — disapprove of Russia’s aggression. But that will not distress Russia’s rulers, Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev.

First, because they are autocrats, not democrats, so they don’t much worry about public opinion, abroad or at home. And second because most Russians will not fret about how “unpopular” Putin and Medvedev are making them on the streets of Paris, London and New York.

In fact, given a choice between Russia being popular and Russia being feared, I think many, if not most, Russians would choose the latter. And beyond that, given a choice between a free and democratic Russia and a Russia that is seen as great and powerful, I think many, if not most, Russians would choose the latter.

Putin and Medvedev know the U.N. will do nothing in response to Russia’s aggression in Georgia. They are confident that NATO members also will take no serious measures — in part because Europe depends on Russia for its energy needs, in part because Europe appears to have lost the will to fight effectively anywhere for almost anything.

Putin and Medvedev also figure the U.S. is in no mood to “go it alone” in defense of Tbilisi.

Putin and Medvedev are demonstrating that they can be tough when they believe Russia’s interests are at stake. It’s a lesson they want the West to learn – and of course they figure it’s a lesson that will not be lost on Russia’s other neighbors, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania among them.