Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

As the head of Israel’s Northern Command in the late 2000s, Gen. Gadi Eisenkot was a principal architect of what has become the Israel Defense Forces’ most fearsome and brutal strategy — the Dahiya Doctrine, which calls for exerting overwhelming, disproportionate force on civilian areas where the enemy operates. – Washington Post

Israeli strikes killed at least three Palestinians and wounded several others in the Gaza Strip on Monday, the ​territory’s health officials said. – Reuters

Israel demolished on Friday the homes of the assailants who killed two Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron last week, part of an ongoing ​operation that has forcibly displaced over 3,000 Palestinians. – Reuters

The Shin Bet is divided over how to investigate the alleged foreign intervention in the elections, with head David Zini seeking to expand the investigation while senior officials disagree about the need to use additional methods, KAN News reported Sunday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with US President Donald Trump on Saturday about US negotiations with Iran and pressed Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections, Axios reported on Sunday night, citing one Israeli and one US source. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF’s winter recruitment cycle for young haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men entering combat support roles began Sunday morning, as behind-the-scenes coalition negotiations with the haredi parties continued amid disagreements over the conscription bill. – Jerusalem Post

The defense establishment is implementing an unprecedented policy in the Gaza Strip that includes granting immunity to mayors and senior officials in Hamas’s governmental and municipal systems. Military sources confirmed to Walla that the decision not to target heads of local Hamas authorities stems from a deep and tangible concern that killing them could lead to the collapse of governing institutions in the Gaza Strip and trigger civilian chaos that Israel would ultimately have to deal with. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Netanyahu, as prime minister, could continue to focus on Israel’s security and the threats emanating from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, and be in charge of foreign policy. There’s not much daylight between any of the parties in regard to that. Eisenkot and Bennett, in turn, would receive the other vital ministries – Justice, Education, Interior, Internal Security – and begin restoring order to the chaos swirling in the country. Now is the time for fresh thinking and bold moves. The voters have spoken and given Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Bennett 60 seats. For the greater good, these leaders must put personalities and egos aside to lead the country into a stable future. – Jerusalem Post

Daniel Byman writes: Historically, Israel has excelled at operations and tactics while having a short-term, narrow mindset about how to achieve security in general. As one Israeli security official joked to me on a recent trip, “The Hebrew word for ‘strategy’ is ‘tactics.’” This mentality has helped Israel score impressive military victories over Hezbollah and Hamas, but it has also left Israel trapped in multiple endless wars with little hope of lasting security. The new Israeli government, whether led by Netanyahu, Eisenkot, or another figure, must translate military dominance into sustainable political arrangements. Otherwise, Israeli society risks exhaustion while the country loses vital international support. – Foreign Policy

Russia and Ukraine

Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers is decking itself out in netting, metal cages and other tools to protect against a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on the energy exports that are proving such a vital economic lifeline for the Kremlin. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region early on Friday, ending a two-week pause in refinery attacks that came amid heavy pressure from the Trump administration to halt such operations. – Wall Street Journal

A fleet of buses brought the evacuees from the embattled Ukrainian city of Oleshky out of the war zone on Saturday, the passengers waving and wiping tears as they swung into the parking lot and ended their journey back. – New York Times

On Friday morning, journalists at Novaya Gazeta, Russia’s leading independent news outlet, reported news that they had done all they could to prevent: “They killed us,” they said in a statement. – New York Times

Ukrainian troops cannot stand up in the pipes, which are less than four feet in diameter. Yet they spend weeks at a time inside them, fighting Russians with guns and grenades, ferrying out fellow soldiers injured or killed at the front, and carrying in critical supplies. – New York Times

The US State Department said on Friday it had approved the sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3 ‌missiles to Ukraine for an estimated $2.1 billion, in what would be one of the most significant steps to supply defensive weapons to Kyiv since the start of the second Trump administration. – Reuters

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Sunday that a Russian ​minor had been detained over a threat to ‌carry out a terrorist attack in a Moscow park following a tip-off from the United States, news agency Interfax reported. – Reuters

Ukraine’s Air Force said on Sunday that the public ​air raid alert app had been ‌hacked. The app for a short time showed Kyiv and other areas subject to nuclear and chemical ​alerts and the threat of street ​combat. An erroneous message said Russia’s hypersonic ⁠Oreshnik missile had been deployed. – Reuters

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Atlanta on Friday and ​demanded the release of a Japanese national detained in Russia’s Sakhalin region. – Reuters

Turkey

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said South Korea could become a partner in ​developing Turkey’s planned Sinop nuclear power station, ‌according to an interview with Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday. – Reuters

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev skipped a summit of Turkic states on Friday despite a personal invitation from his Turkish counterpart, highlighting growing tensions between the historic ​allies over domestic and regional policies. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday he would be holding “important” talks in Turkey as ​part of diplomatic efforts after more than 4-1/2 ‌years of war with Russia. – Reuters

Turkey has moved the country’s Kurdish militant leader to a newly built part of an island prison where he has been incarcerated since 1999 as part of efforts to end decades of conflict, a senior Kurdish official said. – Associated Press

Yunus Arinci, the chief executive officer of Turkey’s settlement and custody bank Takasbank, resigned after being questioned by prosecutors as part of an investigation into the country’s fund crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Gulf States

The looming possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran has been met with weary nervousness in the Persian Gulf, as Gulf officials double down on efforts to break through a U.S.-Iran impasse that they know will leave their region vulnerable. – Washington Post

OpenAI signed deals to deploy its technology across energy companies, investment firms and government agencies in the United Arab Emirates, deepening ties as it seeks billions of dollars in funding from the country’s state-backed investors. – Bloomberg

The identities of two off-duty pilots who safely landed a flydubai plane full of Israeli passengers in September after a foiled terror attack by one of the assigned pilots were finally revealed last week when they were honored for their actions by the United Arab Emirates. – Times of Israel

Korean Peninsula

North Korea said on Monday a recent US-South Korean joint military exercise was ​a nuclear war rehearsal targeting the country and vowed ‌to accelerate efforts to strengthen its nuclear deterrent, according to state media KCNA. – Reuters

A South Korean army staff sergeant died after suffering external injuries at a ​frontline unit in Cheorwon near ​the North Korean border on Monday morning, ⁠Seoul’s Defence Ministry said. – Reuters

North Korea’s state media KCNA reported on Sunday that the ​country’s defense science research institutes tested a ‌major weapon system. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called ‌for his country to seize “absolute superiority” in drone technology as he attended an exhibition and demonstration of unmanned aeronautical technology, state media KCNA reported on Friday. – Reuters

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said ​on Friday that he ‌had discussed security challenges affecting European and Asian nations ​with North Korea’s Foreign ​Minister Choe Son Hui ⁠during a visit to Pyongyang ​for the formal reopening ​of Switzerland’s diplomatic office there. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attended an exhibition devoted to drones and called for rapidly expanding the country’s drone technology, state media reported Friday, as his military escalates threats against South Korea and the U.S. – Associated Press

Jieun Baek writes: My interviews with erstwhile members of North Korea’s elite do not point to imminent regime collapse. Rather, they suggest a more haunting vulnerability for the Kim family: the loyalty of the elites, which is critical for regime survival, is becoming more performative, less genuine, and motivated by self-preservation, not a wellspring of ideological conviction. The regime’s habitual recourse to maximalist punishments and mass purges will likely drive more elites to defect and maybe, more strikingly, muster unprecedented expressions of collective action. Kim will face his last days when a large enough body of North Korean elites conclude that remaining loyal is no longer their safest and most rational choice. – Foreign Affairs

South Asia

The heart of India’s capital was transformed on Sunday into a sprawling scene of mass resistance to the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. – New York Times

The Trump administration has detained dozens of Afghan immigrants in Louisiana and plans to deport them to Afghanistan, according to three U.S. officials. – New York Times

The Afghan Taliban government asked the United States to ​act responsibly when deporting Afghan immigrants back ‌home, the Afghan foreign ministry said on Monday, adding that Kabul was prepared to engage constructively with Washington on the ​issue. – Reuters

The military-backed government in Myanmar is intentionally attacking civilians to terrorize them and force them into submission, and its increasing weapons purchases from China, Russia and elsewhere are fueling the conflict and the “catastrophic” human rights situation in the war-torn Southeast Asian nation, a U.N. rights investigator said. – Associated Press

Andy Mukherjee writes: It is precisely that trust the youth movement is challenging. But with heavy social-media censorship and the constant threat of police detention, the protest risks running out of oxygen. That explains the tactical gravitation of some organizers toward Gandhi, even as others remain wary of being swallowed by an old-guard politician. The cockroach party supported Sunday’s march, but didn’t participate. Bora, the student leader, spoke at the rally. It would be a supreme irony if the wrench that finally jams Modi’s formidable political machine turns out to be this uneasy alliance — an establishment dynast pushed into battle by a swarm of self-proclaimed cockroaches throwing themselves into the gears. – Bloomberg

Europe

The U.S. is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Moscow’s wartime enemy—Ukraine—as part of negotiations aimed at securing an energy ceasefire ahead of the coming winter, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials. – Wall Street Journal

Serbia’s Gen Z student movement pulled off what the country’s opposition parties couldn’t in 14 years: ousting one of Europe’s most entrenched populist and authoritarian leaders. – Wall Street Journal

Rioters in Germany looted stores, smashed windows and torched trash bins after massive Gen Z-led demonstrations over affordability spiraled into chaos, authorities said. – Washington Post

Poland’s centrist government deployed riot police at the country’s Constitutional Tribunal late Friday, amid an escalating confrontation between the prime minister, the president and allies of the previous right-wing government. – New York Times

Prime Minister Andy Burnham of Britain said Friday that he was open to his government issuing a formal apology for the country’s historical participation in the slave trade, a major shift in British policy. – New York Times

The Greek authorities on Friday arrested three men in connection with the theft of copper gas pipes from a building in a central tourist district of Athens last month, saying their actions led to a massive explosion that killed six people. – New York Times

Bulgaria’s acting President Iliana Iotova won the presidential runoff election, near-final results ​from the Central Election Commission showed ‌on Monday, becoming the country’s first elected female head of state amid low voter turnout. – Reuters

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk sought to offer assurances that the country’s Constitutional Tribunal will operate in accordance with the law, after President Karol Nawrocki, an ally ​of the previous hard-right government, accused him of staging a forced takeover of the court. – Reuters

German ministers threatened tough penalties for looters and rioters who damaged stores and injured more than 100 police officers in Frankfurt overnight, while praising security forces for preventing wider violence. – Reuters

London police said they arrested 139 people at a protest outside the U.S. Embassy on Saturday in support of the banned group Palestine Action. – Associated Press

France on Sunday launched an attempted murder probe after Molotov cocktails were thrown at security forces during Paris protests, as footage of an officer in flames sparked outrage. – Agence-France Presse

A Russian citizen was charged with espionage in Poland after he was caught taking photographs of the country’s railway infrastructure, police in Lower Silesia said Friday. – Politico

Hundreds were arrested as masked protesters hurled stones and firebombs at police in Albania’s capital on Saturday on the margins of a fresh anti-government demonstration demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama. – Times of Israel

Martin Ivens writes: One source of hope is that McFadden can reduce the welfare bill without cutting a penny. Although future projections look terrifying, welfare spending is still far below its 2011-12 post-crisis peak. Successful disability benefit claims have fallen from 81% to 53% in a year. The trick is to get claimants to undergo a proper work-capability assessment. Burnham’s crowd-pleasing act demands the services of these two ministerial straight men. They are not richly endowed with imagination, but if the PM is a natural front man, Healey and McFadden look like a solid enough rhythm section. – Bloomberg

Matti Pesu writes: The Greenland agreement that Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk signed in September should encourage the Trump administration to play a larger, more constructive role in Arctic security. So far, Washington has treated defense spending as the key enabler of NATO 3.0. But a European-led alliance also needs allies that can use their growing capabilities as efficiently and seamlessly as possible. If the United States were to encourage and back Nordic-style minilateral latticework in other critical subregions, it would empower a more competent, capable, and commanding NATO 3.0. – Foreign Affairs

Sam Skove writes: For Warsaw, though, there may be little choice but to hope for the best. While European nations are rapidly rearming, none can provide the military capabilities of the United States. Russia’s escalating campaign of sabotage against Europe over its support for Ukraine, meanwhile, makes U.S. military commitments more important than ever—even if the Trump administration has shown increasing willingness to hand Russia economic wins and pressure Ukraine as the White House seeks to negotiate an end to the war. – Foreign Policy

The Americas

In Colombia’s rural Guaviare region, poor ranchers eke out a living in obscurity, surrounded by armed rebels who traffic cocaine[…] Supporters of the country’s new right-wing president, Abelardo De La Espriella, say his iron-fisted attack on armed groups — which has involved posing with body bags and pledging to hunt down “bandidos,” or bandits — is needed after years of failed peace talks. – New York Times

US President Donald ​Trump said on Saturday ‌that Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who lost ​his country’s ​presidential election to leftist President ⁠Luiz Inacio ​Lula da Silva, can ​stay in the United States “as long as he ​wants.” – Reuters

The Trump administration does not plan to back Flavio Bolsonaro’s claim to be Brazil’s rightful leader, despite helping the defeated candidate reach the US after years of supporting him and his father, a US official and another person familiar ​with the matter said on Thursday. – Reuters

Cuba on Friday welcomed home a diplomat expelled by the United States after an unusually heated confrontation between the two countries’ representatives at the United Nations this week – Associated Press

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Unnamed Trump officials liked to predict that Ms. Machado’s return would be destabilizing. But this week proved that wrong too. As crowds welcomed her home she repeated her pledge that the struggle for freedom for Venezuela that she leads will be peaceful. She summed up her goal in a post on X: “For the reunification of every family, for the freedom of every political prisoner, for the freedom of Venezuela.” – Wall Street Journal

James Stavridis writes: Success in Venezuela is about far more than that country’s security and prosperity: It will be the sharpest test of Trump’s Donroe Doctrine. The US effort needs to focus on involving Venezuela’s neighbors (including Lula), getting its oil onto global markets, maintaining the attention of the already overloaded Rubio, and ensuring free and fair elections. Tough, but not impossible. – Bloomberg

Gil Guerra writes: The stability of that order will require the U.S. to demonstrate a willingness to make trade-offs that benefit its friends, such as conditional tariff relief for countries that continue to align with Washington. Perhaps most important, it will also require the U.S. to see the return of democracy to Venezuela through to the end. If the U.S. can prove that it is capable not only of destroying things that are evil but also of building things that are good, American power will seem like something to follow rather than to fear. – The Dispatch

United States

Democrats have a chance to retake the Senate—a proposition that seemed far-fetched earlier this year. But instead of unifying ahead of Election Day, the party is already engaged in infighting and finger-pointing. – Wall Street Journal

Federal immigration agents have fanned out across California’s Central Valley in recent weeks, stirring fear in Latino communities and allegations of voter intimidation in a toss-up race that could help decide control of the US House of Representatives. – Reuters

Hanwha Defense USA said ​on Sunday it had ‌signed a $269 million contract with Tote ​Services to build ​a medium landing ship ⁠for US Navy. The ​2,687-ton, 100-metre vessel ​is to be used for operations in disputed ​waters including the ​Indo-Pacific region, Hanwha said in ‌a ⁠statement. – Reuters

Top diplomats from the Group of 20 largest world economies wrapped up two days of talks Saturday without reaching consensus on several critical global security issues after divisions, notably over Russia’s war with Ukraine, visibly overshadowed the start of the Atlanta meeting and impacted its outcome, too. – Associated Press

Javier Blas writes: Today, the US is exporting huge amounts of gas as LNG. But even that isn’t enough to fully connect its domestic market to the global one. As such, America is making a double profit: First, it enjoys ultra-low gas prices; second, it’s paid enormous sums for its exports. It’s a hugely profitable geopolitical landscape and Trump is aware. “The United States oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars,” he said at a political rally in late October. For once, the US President was telling the truth. “I don’t give a damn, I’m going to say it: We’re making a freaking fortune,” he told his MAGA followers. Left unsaid is what’s happening on the other side of the coin: Europe and Asia are paying the full cost of the energy crisis caused by the Iran war. Trump could have well added: And I don’t give a damn. – Bloomberg