Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Netanyahu says he spoke with Syria’s leader about druze plight US issues fresh Iran-related sanctions, Treasury website shows 'We'll knock it out fast': Trump threatens Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site with strikes Ukraine strikes Russian refinery after Moscow breaks Trump's energy ceasefire Russia builds major new drone attack base in six weeks, satellite images show Iran warned Hezbollah to prepare for war as it expects US strikes soon, diplomats tell 'Post' Houthi missiles strike government headquarters in Yemen Turkey floats earlier 2028 vote that would clear way for Erdogan to run again AEI’s Michael Rubin: The end of Qatar’s moment? Trump says he is talking to Russia and China about denuclearization What does Alberta's referendum on separation from Canada mean? Taiwan chipmaker TSMC explores Texas investment to expand production in the USIn The News
Israel
Israeli digital advertising agency Discover-Tech spied on internet users through a sprawling network of online ads that it used to track targets and help hack their devices, two research groups said on Thursday. – Reuters
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Israeli President Isaac Herzog that Israel should stop and reverse its “forced establishment” of West Bank settlements, China’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters
Israel said commercial goods were no longer entering Gaza over what it said was a dispute over taxes between local merchants and Hamas, shutting off a vital source of food and other goods in the territory where the population is dependent on aid. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he spoke to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa last year as part of an intervention on behalf of the threatened Druze minority in the Arab country. – Bloomberg
The IDF killed a Hamas commander who participated in the October 7 massacre and a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist in two separate Thursday strikes, the military confirmed on Friday morning. – Jerusalem Post
The private Egyptian jet that landed at Ben Gurion Airport for an hour on September 26, 2023, was not carrying Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, but rather two Egyptian businessmen, Hebrew media outlets reported Wednesday, citing senior intelligence sources. – Times of Israel
Once thought irreversible, Israel’s rock-solid bond with the United States has become a matter of debate, with the future shape of ties between the allies hanging in the balance. At the center of those deliberations is Jerusalem’s defense partnership with its most powerful and beneficent friend, which faces the possibility of being pared back significantly. – Times of Israel
Marking two years since troops killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the IDF on Thursday published a letter it said was written by the terror chief’s son, Ibrahim, at the start of the Gaza war, when he was 10 years old. – Times of Israel
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, addressing European parliamentary leaders in Rome on Thursday, rejected allegations of genocide in Gaza and accused world leaders of spreading falsehoods for political gain, drawing some applause. – Times of Israel
Lawrence J. Haas writes: In Iraq, “democratic governance” is marred by corruption, government weakness, and outside militias; in Yemen, where “normal political activity” has ceased, civilians suffer from “violence and repression” by both the government and Houthi rebels; and in Saudi Arabia, an “absolute monarchy” under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman restricts “almost all political rights and civil liberties.” Will Netanyahu once again build a coalition large enough to keep him in office? Will the opposition overcome its internal conflicts and secure enough seats to oust him? In a supreme irony, it is Israel’s Arabs (Muslims, Christians, and others) who may tip the balance one way or the other. It would be nice if other regional populations had such power to shape their governments. It also would be nice if the global community would divert its attention from Israel long enough to give this issue the focus it deserves. – The National Interest
Iran
The impact of the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is already becoming visible in agricultural harvests, threatening to lower farm yields and push up food prices, the head of a United Nations rural development agency said on Thursday. – Reuters
The Trump administration has issued fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting 16 individuals and 10 entities, according to a notice posted on the US Department of Treasury website on Thursday. – Reuters
Iran’s government is encouraging the latest escalation in attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels and doesn’t seem ready to make the needed concessions in the wider war with the United States, one of Saudi Arabia’s top diplomats said Thursday. – Associated Press
Lebanon’s central bank this week revoked the local license of Bank Saderat, one of Iran’s biggest lenders, as the US raises pressure on nations to cut commercial ties with the Islamic Republic. – Bloomberg
The United States is looking at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site as a possible target for a future strike, US President Donald Trump confirmed during an interview with Newsmax on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
A commander in one of the Basij’s female units was killed in an attack on Wednesday in Mehrestan, a border county in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state media reported. The woman was identified as Afsaneh Aghila. – Jerusalem Post
Payam Zamani writes: I think all those young people taken to the gallows every morning in Iran. I think about the Baha’is being detained in Iran right now. I think about the youth of Iran, the women of Iran, many of them teenagers like I once was, and I think about what it would mean if the world simply looked away again. It has looked away for half a century while an entire nation has been persecuted. Iran’s current turmoil could make that persecution worse. I do not have a solution to Iran’s politics. But I know what it means to be forgotten by the world while your government decides your destiny. I was fortunate. I found a country willing to bet on me. I do not seek war, but I do seek freedom for Iranians. – The Hill
Russia and Ukraine
Lt. Lev Stupnikov pulled his truck up to the edge of a field in eastern Ukraine on a frigid February morning, followed by a convoy of senior Russian army officials coming to observe a training exercise near the front line. – Wall Street Journal
Warnings by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and disruptions to SpaceX’s Starlink network have exposed how vulnerable Kyiv would be if the U.S. pulled the plug on all of its support, threatening everything from drone strikes to air defenses. – Wall Street Journal
Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries Thursday, after accusing Moscow of violating President Trump’s ceasefire on energy targets, and as its military regained full access to Starlink following a mysterious disruption the day before. – Wall Street Journal
Residents of eastern Ukraine live largely in a spider’s world, with roads and sidewalks and gas stations draped in netting meant to entangle drones. Machine guns mounted on old sedans and pickups are used to shoot them down. – Washington Post
The order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine for battlefield communications and drone operations came from inside the White House, according to two US officials and a Western official briefed on the matter. – Reuters
Ukraine’s military said on Thursday it had damaged six Russian Su-34M military aircraft in an overnight strike on the Borisoglebsk airfield in Russia’s Voronezh region. In a statement on Telegram, Ukraine’s military general staff said it had confirmed damage of varying degrees to all six aircraft. – Reuters
Russia’s FSB security service said on Thursday it had detained a Swedish man it suspects of planning attacks and sabotage on behalf of Ukraine after entering Russia on the pretext of seeking to join the Russian army. – Reuters
Russia has nearly finished building a major new base for launching jet-powered drones in just six weeks, according to defence experts and a Reuters analysis of satellite imagery, in the latest expansion of its attack capability close to Ukraine. – Reuters
Russia has moved to place local assets of French, German, Swedish and Dutch companies under temporary management, according to a decree by President Vladimir Putin, as EU ties hit a new low over the bloc’s support for Ukraine. – Reuters
A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has some members of the alliance wondering if Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking escalation to test their support for Ukraine in its war against Moscow’s full-scale invasion. – Associated Press
The UK is sending Ukraine more long-range Storm Shadow missiles so it can disrupt Russian military operations targeting its civilian infrastructure before the winter, people familiar with the matter said. – Bloomberg
Ukrainian lawmakers passed a package of tax bills required to unlock more funding from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, according to the finance ministry in Kyiv. – Bloomberg
Ukraine has run out of missiles for the US-made Patriot air defense system, leaving it more vulnerable to Russian ballistic missile attacks, a source familiar with the situation told CNN on Thursday. – CNN
Editorial: Nobody in the U.S. government is stepping up to claim credit for throttling Ukraine’s Starlink access this week, but no one is denying that it happened. A frustrated Mr. Zelensky now says Ukraine will resume targeting Russian energy sites after Mr. Putin ignored Mr. Trump’s announcement last weekend of a “cease-fire” and continued to bomb Ukraine’s energy sites. The episode is revealing how much the Ukrainians are doubting U.S. support even though they are fighting a dedicated enemy of America in the Kremlin. A discrete deal for Starlink would at least be a start toward getting a bungled peace process back on track. – Wall Street Journal
James Stavridis writes: The combined annual defense budget of the 32 NATO countries is greater than $1.5 trillion; Russia, even on a war footing, spends around $200 billion. It is appropriate that Grynkewich gave his speech in Poland, which spends more on defense as a percentage of GDP than any other member state. But in the end, deterring Moscow will require more than shifting NATO’s focus to the northeast, increasing training and spending on more on new technologies. It will also need political will, often the alliance’s Achilles’ heel. Let’s hope Grynkewich’s timely presentation in Warsaw can help get all 32 member states on board with the Theory of Victory. – Bloomberg
Andreas Umland writes: Five further steps merit consideration: more parliaments and associations should adopt resolutions demanding the release of civilian prisoners. The attention of journalists and editors should be drawn to the roughly 16,000 adult civilian detainees. The ICRC’s donor countries should encourage the Red Cross to confront Moscow publicly. Kyiv should explore reclassifying prosecuted partisans as combatants eligible for prisoner-of-war exchanges. Finally, Western countries should consider buying out select Ukrainian civilian prisoners. – The National Interest
Lebanon
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun about the confiscation of hundreds of kilograms of explosives from Hezbollah, a US State Department official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Lebanon’s central banker expects a breakthrough by the end of the year in International Monetary Fund talks on a controversial law stipulating how to repay depositors whose savings were caught up in the country’s financial collapse. – Bloomberg
The Iranian regime told Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon to be prepared for the United States to resume the war with Iran, following Wednesday’s report that Iran currently estimates that “an American attack is only a matter of time,” two diplomatic sources told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Hanin Ghaddar and Majd Harb write: Beirut must also provide assurances that the LAF will continue using such intelligence to keep these areas permanently demilitarized after Israel withdraws from each zone. […] To ensure progress, U.S. assistance needs to be conditioned on the dismantlement of Hezbollah. Meeting that goal will also entail cleansing military and security institutions of Hezbollah operatives, making sure they no longer have access to movement facilitation cards, and avoiding further excuses based on supposed civil war risks, Shia opposition, or insufficient legal authorization. – Washington Institute
Yemen
The Houthi militia struck the headquarters of Yemen’s government with a missile barrage on Thursday, killing five people, officials said, as casualties mounted across several fronts of fierce fighting. – New York Times
Houthi militants who control northwestern Yemen have in the past week attacked Riyadh international airport and hit the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, in air assaults that have laid bare Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability to threats from its enemy next door. – Reuters
The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are about more than Yemen. By targeting infrastructure and disrupting investment events central to Saudi Arabia’s economic ambitions, they aim to pressure Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to both meet Houthi demands in Yemen and persuade US President Donald Trump to ease the US blockade choking Iran’s economy, according to Saudi, Iranian and regional sources. – Reuters
The most effective way to defeat the Houthis and reverse their territorial gains would be to empower government forces to fight the group, though such support cannot come from the United States or Israel, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defense and security think tank, told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
The Saudi-led military coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthis on Thursday said it had intercepted a cruise missile in the Medina region – home to one of Islam’s holiest cities, but the Houthis denied carrying out any such attack. – France 24
Allison Minor writes: But de-escalation should not mean disengagement. Instead, Saudi Arabia should use that period to (1) mobilize a collective effort with regional and international partners to finally address the rifts within the Yemeni government and broader anti-Houthi coalition, (2) build the capacity of that government, and (3) unify around a credible political end state for Yemen. These are difficult tasks that will take time, and they cannot be achieved while fighting an active war. In the wake of the Houthi attacks on the Riyadh airport, Saudi Arabia’s lesson should not be that the 2022 truce was a mistake—it should be that it did not use the calm the truce provided as effectively as it should have. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Saudi Arabia
Over decades, Saudi Arabia has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in building an advanced military, putting the kingdom among the top 10 nations in terms of arms spending. – New York Times
When attack drones struck Saudi Aramco’s biggest oil pipeline last month, satellite images showed one of its pumping stations burnt to ashes. By the next day, scores of bulldozers were already building a new pipeline. – Reuters
The European Union and Gulf states on Thursday postponed a joint summit due to be held in Saudi Arabia next week, as sustained attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthis fuel concerns about air travel to and from the kingdom. – Reuters
Global finance firms including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are allowing Saudi Arabia-based staff to work from home after a series of Houthi strikes heightened security concerns in the kingdom, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
Turkey will probably hold its 2028 elections earlier than expected, a presidential adviser said on Thursday, a move which would allow President Tayyip Erdogan to sidestep constitutional limits and run again for office. – Reuters
Iraq’s parliament on Thursday approved the remainder of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet, completing the formation of a government that took office five months ago with several key positions, lawmakers said. – Reuters
David Schenker writes: Mr. Boulos recently said “there is no imminent solution” to the dispute. Absent a deal, Morocco is consolidating authority over the Southern Provinces, while Algeria and the Polisario cling to their referendum demand. Did referendum supporters miss the latest vote? Recent turnout and election results in Western Sahara were an unmistakable vote for unity with Morocco. One wonders when Algiers will realize that the Polisario’s window for diplomatic success has closed—and that its support for the insurgent cause has become an albatross denying it substantial investment and growth. – Wall Street Journal
Mansoor Moaddel writes: None of these experiments have offered political accountability, legitimate governance, or economic prosperity. Liberalism’s next chapter may arise in societies that have experienced the failure of alternatives firsthand. The important question now is not whether the Middle East is ready for democracy but whether its political institutions can keep pace with growing public support for individual rights and freedoms—and whether democracies outside the region are willing to acknowledge and back its people’s democratic aspirations. – Foreign Affairs
Michael Rubin writes: Qatari influence will persist in civil society for some time. Moza’s Qatar Foundation is opaque, it still has hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue, which imbues it with influence. But an inability to replenish its funds, combined with domestic demands to maintain standards, will put increasing demands on its principal […] With Qatar reeling from the Iran war, its ability to pay off critics declining, and questions about its abetment of corruption during the Trump era rising, the question now looms about whether Qatar can ever truly recover, or whether its moment is over. – Middle East Forum
Korean Peninsula
South Korea is reviewing an expansion of its military operations in the Middle East, the Kyunghyang Shinmun newspaper reported on Thursday, as the US ally faces pressure from President Donald Trump to provide support for the war in Iran. – Reuters
North Korea’s missile chief said South Korea’s newly tested hypersonic glide vehicle may not have achieved hypersonic flight as claimed, state media KCNA reported on Thursday. Jang Chang Ha, head of North Korea’s Missile Administration, said photographs released by South Korea after its October 8 test showed no visible signs associated with hypersonic flight. – Reuters
South Korea’s longstanding alliance with America is being tested by spats spanning from investment deals to intelligence leaks, compromising Seoul’s ability to respond to North Korea. – Bloomberg
China
China is aiming to spur more effective and accessible global governance solutions at a forum next week, convened under its push for an alternative governance system for the world. – Reuters
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday Washington is holding talks with Moscow and Beijing aimed at denuclearizing the countries with the biggest stockpiles of nuclear weapons. – Reuters
China’s top prosecuting agency, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, has sought the arrest of the former mayor of Chengdu, Wang Fengchao, for suspected bribery, state news agency Xinhua said on Thursday. – Reuters
Daniel Moss writes: Gross domestic product is likely to meet the official target of 4.5-5% but not exceed that. Other Asian currencies on track for advances are buoyed by the AI boom and monetary tightening, as is the case with the South Korean won and the Singapore dollar. Unlike regional peers, the PBOC hasn’t touched rates and, if anything, will cut them. China and the yuan have come a long way since 2005. Markets have a much greater say, but to insist they are decisive lets authorities off the hook. What does next year have in store? Ask Xi. – Bloomberg
South Asia
When India’s police violently rounded up thousands of protesters from New Delhi over the past week, Neha Bora became not just the face of the fight to remain on the streets, but also its legs. – New York Times
The US and Myanmar’s military-backed government held talks in Tokyo last week, people familiar with the matter said, their second meeting in a month as Washington steps up re-engagement with the generals it shunned after their 2021 coup. – Reuters
The first phase of an India-US trade deal is in the final stages of drafting, India’s trade minister said on Thursday, but reiterated that New Delhi would proceed only if it secures an advantage over competing exporters. – Reuters
The United Nations mission in Afghanistan said on Thursday that Taliban morality police arbitrarily detained hundreds of people and subjected dozens to ill-treatment between July and September, allegations the Taliban rejected. – Reuters
Nepal is still recovering from the devastating floods that killed more than 1,400 people and left thousands missing in its mountainous border region with China. Another flash flood in north-central Nepal last week left at least five people missing. – Associated Press
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet Reliance Industries Ltd.’s Chairman Mukesh Ambani next week, according to the US envoy, underscoring Washington’s engagement with the conglomerate amid Elon Musk’s recent public swipes at the Indian billionaire. – Bloomberg
Brahma Chellaney writes: Washington should recognize that a powerful India can be a valuable partner precisely because it is capable of acting independently. With the Trump administration asking U.S. allies to take greater responsibility for their own security, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby declared, “India is a model ally that takes its own defense with utmost seriousness.” America’s China lesson could ultimately strengthen the U.S.-India relationship. But that will happen only if Washington learns to distinguish an independent partner from a prospective rival, and New Delhi shows that autonomy need not preclude collaboration. – The Hill
Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes: The very institutions that were meant to secure their future—elections, courts, and independent agencies—are losing their trust. The strongman is failing, even as the opposition struggles to inspire a great deal of conviction and enthusiasm. What is powerful about this moment, then, is the spectacle of young people who, lacking many good options, are still choosing to fight for their democracy the only way citizens can when it is in peril: with energy, aspiration, and the belief that they can craft their own collective future, wherever that may lead. – Foreign Affairs
Asia
Two things on the Indonesian central bank’s radar ahead of its next meeting are oil prices and the Federal Reserve. As of now, Bank Indonesia is expecting the Fed to hike in December, Gov. Destry Damayanti said Thursday on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank Group meetings in Bangkok. – Wall Street Journal
Taiwan’s government has told its people to shun events in China next month for the anniversary of the birth of a man officially lauded by both Taipei and Beijing for bringing an end to the last imperial dynasty, exposing another historical fault line. – Reuters
The Philippines has chided China’s ambassador for what it interpreted as a “thinly veiled threat” of force, after Beijing’s envoy said his country would prevail in a confrontation between them. – Reuters
Japan wants to sell air defense, maritime surveillance and counter-drone systems to the Philippines amid its push to bolster forces in the South China Sea and Luzon Strait. – USNI News
Japhet Quitzon writes: More pressing than the number of shuttered compounds and crackdowns will be Phnom Penh’s resolve to dig deeper into the elite networks that sustain the industry. With renewed engagement between Washington and Phnom Penh, cooperation should center around continued transparent investigations, verification of site shutdowns, and accountability demanded from all perpetrators. Large-scale conferences, expansive crackdowns, and widely touted legal reform bear no weight if Cambodia does not look inward to hold scam-affiliated elites accountable. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Lucas Myers writes: In the South China Sea, although Vietnam adopts a quieter strategy than the Philippines, U.S. demonstrations of resolve in supporting Manila go a long way — and show the limits of Moscow’s backing. These actions could eventually position Washington as the more trusted partner. On the whole, Southeast Asian states may distrust the United States, but no government in the region wants Washington gone. While realistic assumptions are necessary about how far hedging states can move away from China and toward the United States, Washington needs to devote more resources and institutional attention to Southeast Asia’s complex security and threat landscape. A broad brush risks abdicating the initiative to China, but a tailored approach can better counterbalance Beijing. – War on the Rocks
Europe
Thousands of students, setting fires in the streets and barricading roads with wrought ironwork, brought Albania’s capital to a standstill on Thursday, as anger over the high cost of education coalesced into violent protests demanding the prime minister’s resignation. – New York Times
A German court on Thursday handed two men prison sentences of up to 8-1/2 years for planning to kill the leader of a Jewish organisation in Germany, saying one man had been steered by Iran’s intelligence service. – Reuters
Britain’s defense minister said he and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth welcomed the restoration of the Starlink service in Ukraine in talks on Thursday, and he stressed the need to move forward in supporting Kyiv following renewed discord between the US and Ukrainian leaders. – Reuters
Germany warned on Thursday against efforts to bring Russia back on to the international stage, while Britain called for tighter sanctions on Russian shipping, as questions grow about the strength of US support for Ukraine. – Reuters
Germany will contribute €50 million ($56 million) for Ukraine to repair its Chernobyl nuclear power plant, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said on Friday. – Reuters
Rescuers searched on Thursday for seven missing sailors after drones struck two chemical tankers near Romania’s Black Sea coast, setting them ablaze and raising fresh security concerns along a vital shipping route used by Ukraine. – Reuters
Romania’s leftist Social Democrats said they will join the government of Prime Minister-designate Luca Niculescu while other parties pledged their votes, edging the country closer to ending a political crisis that has pressured its investment-grade rating. – Reuters
Sweden’s parliament on Thursday rejected Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson’s bid to form a minority government, as widely expected, extending a period of uncertainty over who will become prime minister after last month’s general election. – Reuters
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Thursday the Nordic country will reject the Irish EU presidency proposal for the European Commission’s budget plan for the period 2028 to 2034. – Reuters
European Union leaders voiced strong opposition on Thursday to a new proposal for the bloc’s long-term budget, raising serious doubt about whether the key spending package will be agreed by the end of year. – Associated Press
European leaders know they can’t stop courting Donald Trump. But as the US president menaces Ukraine and offers Russia an economic lifeline, they are preparing for a world where he effectively sides with Moscow. – Bloomberg
Thousands of people took to the streets of Portugal’s second-largest city Thursday to protest against the country’s soaring home prices after the police clashed with demonstrators in the early morning hours, increasing pressure on the government to act. – Bloomberg
The West Nile virus is spreading across the EU at record levels and is reaching new regions of the continent, health authorities said Thursday. – Politico
Ani Chkhikvadze writes: Tsikhanouskaya wants Coale to continue negotiating. Last week, Trump announced Coale’s selection as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, giving him a broader remit beyond Belarus. Still, she worries that the expanded role could divert his attention while hundreds remain imprisoned. “It’s not an easy task, you know, to talk to dictators. … Coale understands that it’s not just a number of people released. It’s people’s lives,” she said. “Of course, we’re afraid that he might lose focus on Belarus. But I hope that he’s already infected with Belarusiness … on the personal level and he wants to finish the work in Belarus.” – Washington Examiner
Rebeccah Heinrichs writes: As articulated by Rubio, the Trump administration believes the security of the United States remains linked to Europe’s and that the U.S. must make sure that NATO is strong so that it can continue to be a “deterrent against hostility” which makes “our nations and our continents safer from foreign threats and more secure for our people.” The threats were a distraction; foresight and effective diplomacy are the real story. And, on that front, Rubio won for the president and the country with significant gains over the Chinese and the Russians. – Fox News
Ömer Taşpınar writes: Europe’s strategic autonomy debate ultimately comes down to a simple principle: capacity must precede autonomy. NATO cannot build a stronger European pillar by separating it institutionally from the alliance; it must do so through greater military capability, closer NATO-EU coordination, and the integration of indispensable partners such as Turkey. Seen in this context, resolving the Turkey-Cyprus impasse is not merely a regional diplomatic objective. It is an important step toward building a more capable, coherent, and resilient Euro-Atlantic security architecture. – The National Interest
Africa
Kenya raised the maximum retail prices of petrol and diesel on Wednesday, the energy regulator said, citing higher import costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. – Reuters
Somalia’s electoral commission said on Thursday the Horn of Africa country will hold a presidential election on May 15 next year. – Reuters
Ethiopia’s central bank has joined the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), the platform said on Thursday, bringing the country closer to full integration into the continent’s financial and payments system. – Reuters
Suspected Boko Haram fighters killed at least 10 soldiers and wounded at least 20 others in a coordinated assault on an army base in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state this week, military sources and residents said on Thursday. – Reuters
Hundreds of people rallied in Somaliland’s capital Hargeisa on Wednesday, waving US and Somaliland flags, celebrating US President Donald Trump calling it “a totally different country.” – Agence-France Presse
African economies have managed to weather the energy crisis brought on by the Iran war, but a decline in aid has left the continent vulnerable to future shocks, the head of the International Monetary Fund’s Africa department said Thursday. – Associated Press
Mauritius extended a curfew for two more nights and tightened security after days of unrest sparked by police shooting a woman who was taking part in protests over water shortages and the cost of living. – Associated Press
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for de-escalation in the Horn of Africa amid fighting in northern Ethiopia and heightened tensions with neighboring Eritrea. – Associated Press
Justice Malala writes: However, with M23 now achieving political heft and legitimacy under his leadership — rather than being dismissed as a mere proxy of Rwanda — it offers a chance to draw the new unified FRN grouping to the negotiating table along with Tshisekedi’s DRC government and Kagame’s Rwandan administration. Other interested parties, including regional bodies such as the African Union, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community, as well as the tens of internal DRC parliamentary and paramilitary groupings, can be included. But getting all three of the main players involved in the conflict on board is crucial to any hopes of securing a robust peace accord. – Bloomberg
Yasir Zaidan writes: The United Arab Emirates is not a state party but has been a signatory to the treaty since 2013. The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union all have arms trade deals with the United Arab Emirates, and they should block these deals until the United Arab Emirates respects the treaty and the Darfur arms embargo. If non-state actors such as the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan continue to acquire drone and anti-drone technology, this will disrupt civilian return and humanitarian access. It will also disturb regional stability if drone technology reaches armed groups in neighboring countries through regional arms networks that stretch beyond Sudan. – War on the Rocks
The Americas
Venezuela’s exiled opposition leader, María Corina Machado, said in an extensive interview this week that Washington’s new oil partner in Venezuela, Alejandro Betancourt, was responsible for “obscene corruption” and would not be a viable business associate were she to take power. – New York Times
Alberta is holding a nonbinding referendum on Monday to ask residents if they want to remain part of Canada, marking the first time the oil-rich province has ever put the question of separation to the public. – Reuters
As Brazil’s presidential runoff campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates are focusing plans for fiscal adjustments on politically palatable measures, reinforcing economists’ views that strategies to curb the country’s rising debt burden will only come to light after the election. – Reuters
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Thursday he supports lowering the minimum age of criminal responsibility in Brazil to 16 from 18 years for heinous crimes in an interview with TV Globo’s Jornal Nacional, the country’s main newscast. – Reuters
A judge of Brazil’s top electoral court ruled on Thursday that Meta must adopt measures to immediately secure equal treatment of the two presidential candidates ahead of an Oct. 25 runoff. – Associated Press
Chile’s President José Antonio Kast will meet his Bolivian counterpart Rodrigo Paz in a rare state visit to La Paz on Friday, illustrating how South America’s new right-wing alignment is opening the way for a diplomatic thaw and economic integration between two historic foes. – Bloomberg
Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: The big majority of the cases were filed by Bolsonaro’s representatives against Lula’s, or vice versa. This strategy is a massive waste of resources and focus, and cowardly to boot. Instead of losing time with petty judicial battles, candidates should tell the electorate what they will do to improve their lives. If you can’t stand up and defend your ideas against your closest rival for a couple of hours, perhaps you should think about another line of business. – Bloomberg
James Rogan writes: Financial markets clearly favor a Bolsonaro victory. Brazil’s Bovespa stock index jumped almost 10% when he emerged as the favorite to become the next president. The Brazilian currency also rose 4% when the first-round results were announced. Investors anticipate that a Bolsonaro administration would pursue a more economically orthodox agenda, support private enterprise, and reduce state interference in the economy. In such a scenario, a Bolsonaro victory would be good for Brazil and the U.S. – Washington Examiner
United States
A potential Trump administration plan to ease sanctions on vessels that have transported sanctioned oil and fuel would likely have limited impact on boosting tanker availability, traders and analysts said on Thursday. – Reuters
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a long list of demands for the World Bank in line with Trump administration interests, including ending the bank’s prohibition on financing upstream oil and gas projects, putting resources into deep-sea critical minerals mining and reforming its procurement policies. – Reuters
A lawyer for the suspected organizer of a deadly al-Qaida attack on a U.S. warship in the year 2000 wants a military court to determine his competence before trial, arguing that he has a traumatic brain injury “arising from torture in CIA custody.” – Associated Press
The FBI and US Postal Service are investigating a series of suspicious mailings to state election officials across the country, some of which contain unknown substances, officials told reporters on Thursday. – Bloomberg
Three children and one teacher were shot dead at an elementary school Thursday in the northwestern US state of Oregon, police said, adding that the assailant was a 16-year-old who was killed by an armed bystander. – Agence France-Presse
New York City Comptroller Mark Levine hailed the economic relationship between the city and Israel on Thursday, a day after he announced that the city will not reinvest in Israel Bonds. – Times of Israel
Editorial: John Sununu, New Hampshire’s GOP Senate nominee, made a similar point in a Tuesday debate against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. […] “I don’t think it would be wise right now to cut off funding for those vessels and aircraft carriers that are helping to move cargo and oil through the strait and keep commerce flowing.” High oil prices are creating real hardship for voters. But the alternative offered by Messrs. Turek and Jackson is defeat and conceding control to Iran, while giving China the impression that international waters are negotiable based on the U.S. political calendar. That result would be worse for American interests. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
When Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman appeared at an event in Silicon Valley with young Saudi tech workers in the summer of 2016, a new graduate from Massachusetts Institute of Technology was looking for guidance on whether to return to his homeland. – Wall Street Journal
An adviser to Europe’s highest court recommended on Thursday that TikTok lose its challenge to its “gatekeeper” status under landmark EU rules, backing regulators in a closely watched test of the bloc’s efforts to curb Big Tech’s power. – Reuters
Apple’s chairman Tim Cook said Apple Intelligence has been approved in China and a test version is due later in October, China’s state-backed media The Paper reported citing an exclusive interview with Cook on Thursday in Shanghai. – Reuters
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is exploring potential investments in Texas to expand its chip production in the United States, the advanced chipmaker said after posting another record profit on strong artificial intelligence demand. – Associated Press
Taiwan is preparing to tighten export controls on AI chips to further align with US restrictions, according to a senior official in Taipei, joining a Trump administration clampdown on the smuggling of cutting-edge semiconductors to China. – Bloomberg
President Donald Trump’s artificial intelligence task force in its first meeting agreed on Thursday to address risks related to cybersecurity, biosecurity and “model control and accountability” as fears rise over the potential dangers posed by the technology. – Bloomberg
An Israeli surveillance technology firm has run a large-scale operation to infect mobile phones with spyware using online advertisements to hack the devices, researchers said on Thursday. – Politico
Election influence campaigns, particularly ones playing out over social media, are a dime a dozen. Such campaigns – sometimes devised by foreign powers, other times by domestic groups – are often designed to influence the U.S. electorate. – Cyberscoop
A cyber-espionage group with suspected ties to Kazakhstan has targeted government agencies across Central Asia and other former Soviet states, seeking information on diplomatic affairs, economic policy and strategic resources, according to new research. – The Record
A cyberattack on a U.S. government contractor has impacted the platform used by all federal bankruptcy courts across the country. – The Record
A cyberattack on Britain’s Legal Aid Agency (LAA) stole far older and broader records than the government previously disclosed, officials said Wednesday. – The Record
Editorial: Another is regulatory, as officials must stay alert to the corners of the financial system where potential risks may lurk. The goal here isn’t to shield everyone everywhere from any loss. It is rather to ensure that markets will be able to operate effectively even in a correction and without recourse to public bailouts. Hey, we can dream. AI as a technology is a winner and so far has been a boon to the economy without the feared job losses. Whether all the companies currently developing AI will be winners is a different question. Now, time for that walk. – Wall Street Journal
Defense
President Donald Trump rejected plans to livestream the execution of a former Army major who killed 13 people in 2009, overruling Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s proposal after facing intense bipartisan backlash. – Bloomberg
Lockheed Martin is investing $300 million to expand its plant in Grand Prairie, Texas, which supports all programs across its Missiles and Fire Control business, including the PAC-3 MSE and THAAD interceptors, the Precision Strike Missile and the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile. – Defense News
On the heels of an experimentation ramp-up that has seen the U.S. Army’s high-altitude balloons deployed to Europe, the Pacific and the Middle East, a missile defense official said Wednesday that all options were on the table as the service seeks to make the most of the capability. – Defense News
The Army is in the early stages of developing and testing a wearable or lightweight device that could alert soldiers to the presence of hostile drones without substantially adding to their combat load, officials said in a briefing with reporters on Wednesday. – Defense News
Selected U.S. Marines and other members of the joint force are expected to go head-to-head against an AI-controlled adversary later this year in wargames that involve drone swarms and carrier strike groups, according to an administrative message released Wednesday. – Defensescoop