December 8, 2022 | Washington Examiner
Losing an arms race with China is much worse than competing in one
December 8, 2022 | Washington Examiner
Losing an arms race with China is much worse than competing in one
The Pentagon’s annual China Military Power Report published last Tuesday makes clear that Beijing is sprinting to ensure the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) possesses the military means to conquer Taiwan and defeat any effort by the U.S. military to intervene. The good news is that the Pentagon and most members of Congress are finally awake to the danger. They are working to reinforce the eroded U.S. military deterrent and better arm Taipei to deter Beijing from attempting to achieve its political objectives in Taiwan with military force.
The problem is that the pace of American progress remains too slow. It is exacerbated by an insufficient sense of urgency in Washington, stubborn bureaucratic inertia, which makes it difficult to expeditiously field new weapons and reinforce American military posture in the Indo-Pacific, and inadequate defense industrial capacity. Many worry that Chinese military aggression could come into the Taiwan Strait by 2027, a target date for key PLA modernization priorities, the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding, and the last year of Xi Jinping’s third term as general secretary.
Unfortunately, absent urgent additional action, many of the laudable efforts underway in Washington may not deliver the combat capability and capacity necessary soon enough to deter or defeat an attack. That makes aggression in the Taiwan Strait more likely and increases the costs Americans would have to pay to prevail in a war that could have been prevented. Some might be inclined to dismiss such warnings as unwarranted alarmism. But a careful review of recent developments suggests otherwise.
The essence of a genuine threat is the combination of hostile intent and the capability to carry it out. Beijing clearly has the intent to “unify” Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China. “Complete reunification of our country must be realized,” Xi declared in his recent speech to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party. He made clear that Beijing reserved the right to use military force to achieve that goal.
Washington cannot safely assume such statements are merely political posturing. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken assessed in October that China had made a “fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.” Matching actions with words, the “PLA is preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force if perceived as necessary by Beijing,” the Pentagon warned. The 20th Party Congress focused on “intensifying and accelerating the PLA’s modernization goals over the next five years.”