Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The Biden administration is sending the Ukrainian military more radar-hunting missiles, U.S. officials said Thursday, a move intended to bolster its aerial-attack capabilities against invading Russian forces. – Washington Post

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken paid a surprise visit to Kyiv on Thursday, pledging $2.8 billion in military aid for Ukraine and other countries at risk of Russian invasion as the United States backs a Ukrainian effort to gain fresh military momentum. – New York Times

European Union countries announced fresh restrictions Thursday on Russian tourists coming to the bloc, with the Baltic states and Poland saying they will restrict entry for most Russian visa holders because of the war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal  

Russian President Vladimir Putin mooted on Wednesday reopening a U.N.-brokered deal for Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea saying that Moscow and the developing world had been “cheated”. – Reuters

The Ukrainian army said on Thursday it had recaptured territory from Russian troops in the northeastern region of Kharkiv, in the eastern Donbas region and in southern Ukraine. – Agence France-Presse

The head of Ukraine’s atomic energy operator accused Russia on Thursday of trying to “steal” Europe’s largest nuclear plant by cutting it off from the Ukrainian electricity grid and leaving it on the brink of a radiation disaster. – Associated Press

Russia demanded at the United Nations on Thursday that the United States and Britain provide evidence to support their allegations that Moscow was seeking drones from Iran and rockets and artillery shells from North Korea to use in Ukraine. – Reuters

Heavy fighting has been raging into Thursday in areas near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine after Kyiv warned that it might have to shut down the plant to avoid disaster. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin’s threat to completely cut off energy supplies to the West in a deepening confrontation over Ukraine could prove to be a double-edged sword for Russia. – Reuters

A number of oil-importing countries are considering joining the G7’s plan to cap the price of Russian oil, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Thursday, adding that the group would issue related rules in the next few days. – Reuters

The United States sees no indication that a U.N.-brokered Ukrainian grain export deal is unraveling, the White House said on Thursday, after President Vladimir Putin triggered fears that Russia could withdraw support. – Reuters

Ukraine has struck over 400 Russian targets with U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems, General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday. – Reuters

The Department of Defense said on Thursday there would be a new military aid package to Ukraine valued at roughly $675 million. The package of additional arms, munitions, and equipment comes from a presidential drawdown authorization, which means the weapons come straight from U.S. stockpiles. – Washington Examiner 

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Thursday said Russia’s strategic objectives in its attack on Ukraine have “been defeated.” “The war is not over, but so far the Russian strategic objectives have been defeated,” Milley said at a news conference alongside Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.  – The Hill 

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has swag. In the midst of a successful counterattack in the north — where Ukrainian forces pushed 30 miles into occupied territory –, the ministry boasted its latest tally of Russian kills with a lyric from Bronx-born rapper Pusha T: “I put numbers on the boards.” – New York Post 

As Ukrainians celebrated reclaiming a slew of territories, many Russian propagandists went into overdrive to cover the furthest thing they could from the war: the health of Queen Elizabeth II, who died on Thursday afternoon. – The Daily Beast

Josh Rogin writes: A world divided into blocs is not a good outcome. Any responsible policy must include diplomacy aimed at engaging these adversaries and attempting to preserve the overall multilateral system. But if the axis of autocrats continues to grow, the United States and its partners must be ready. – Washington Post

Leonid Bershidsky writes: As long as Ukraine can maintain pressure on the invaders and retake territory — even if it’s just a village here and there — it makes sense for its allies to keep sending money, equipment and ammunition. Under the same laws of voter-pleasing democratic politics that Putin seems to think are on his side, giving up while it’s demonstrably not too late would be a loser’s move. By making a credible grab for initiative, Ukraine has already proved that the long game isn’t necessarily Putin’s game. Russians — perhaps not Putin, but those who want their country to have a future — should consider the very real possibility of defeat. – Bloomberg

Liz Cookman writes: She sought to secure both safety and an education for the children. “Soldiers with weapons patrol the school and tell the children to study, and there are fines for those who don’t attend.” “Nothing will ever be the same. Nobody asked to be ‘liberated’ from Ukraine, and now, after heavy, attacks my children point to the sky and say, ‘Afraid’,” said Andriy, who was only allowed to escape because he has five children. “The people who did this to us are not human.” – Foreign Policy 

Afghanistan

The Taliban and the Abu Dhabi-based firm GAAC Solutions signed a contract Thursday for the Emirati company to provide flight services and manage planes landing and taking off on key airports in Afghanistan. – Associated Press

Canada will accept some 1,000 Afghans who fled the Taliban takeover of their homeland and have been held for months in a makeshift refugee centre in the United Arab Emirates awaiting resettlement to the United States and elsewhere, seven sources said. – Reuters

The Taliban’s Finance Ministry wants its employees to be more than number crunchers — it’s requiring that everyone in its ranks must pass a test of faith to stay employed. A source within the ministry has provided RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi with a letter detailing orders for all employees to be given a test to gauge their knowledge of Islam. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

In recent months, the manoeuvres of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (i.e., the Afghan Taliban) to get its jihadi government in Kabul recognized by the UN and the Western nations have attracted international attention. Some countries, such as Pakistan and Qatar, have almost recognized the Taliban government, but its decision to ban girls’ education beyond the sixth grade has set back its attempts at diplomatic recognition. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Iraq

After the invasion, Iraq’s long-sidelined Shiite Muslim majority came to dominate government, and the power struggle between Shiite and Sunni political groups fueled a sectarian war. Now, in a dangerous threat to the country’s already tenuous stability, rival Shiite armed groups, the most powerful among them tied to neighboring Iran, are fighting each other, and are beyond the control of the central government. – New York Times

Bernard-Henri Lévy writes: But we ought to understand that Kurdish oil and gas are a serious alternative to Russian supplies—that Kurdistan is now, as it was when it served as our rampart against ISIS, a shield against Vladimir Putin’s energy blackmail and the ensuing chaos. […]The U.S. and its European allies should recall the wisdom of Cicero and see “the whole world as if it were a single city.” – Wall Street Journal  

Randa Slim writes: The Marja’iyah, the body of top Shi’a religious authorities, has proven on numerous occasions an unwillingness to mediate political conflicts. Only when such conflicts threaten civil peace have these clerics intervened and managed to force all parties to step away from the brink. (…) The current crisis is, therefore, here to stay until the Iraqi leaders can come to a compromise solution among themselves. The short-term challenge will be to prevent this political turmoil from spiraling into an all-out civil war. – Middle East Institute 

Middle East & North Africa

The editor of independent news outlet Mada Masr and three journalists have been charged in Egypt over an article about a pro-government political party. Prosecutors summoned the four women for questioning on Wednesday following complaints from Nation’s Future. Mada Masr said they were later released on bail on charges including publishing false news and defaming party members. – BBC

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Iran also doesn’t pay a major price because it can simply wait and fly its munitions to another site. The question is whether the price is being raised for the Syrian regime and its partners in Russia and Iran, and whether this may encourage Iran to shift tactics and strategy. – Jerusalem Post

Batu Coskun writes: Turkey’s already complicated relationship with Washington could become the subject of further scrutiny from American officials, particularly if the United States feels that Turkey is acting at the behest of Putin. While Turkey has indeed orchestrated a delicate sequencing of normalization, Erdogan’s likely rationale, which sees a victory in elections as the ultimate goal, could possibly derail the success of the process. Turkey’s endeavors feel increasingly hasty, uncalculated, and, ultimately, over-ambitious. – The National Interest

China

Wealthy and powerful entrepreneurs in China were once idolized by the public, doted on by the government and courted by foreign investors […] Now, billionaire tycoons are the outsiders in an increasingly state-driven economy that puts a priority on politics and national security over growth. As the government cracks down on business and the economy weakens, they are keeping low profiles, stepping down from their companies or leaving the country entirely. – New York Times

In August, China’s ambassador to Zambia took to the stage at a new conference centre in the capital Lusaka, which he called “a gift from the Chinese government to our Zambian friends”, to speak about lending to the debt-laden southern African country. – Reuters

Switzerland called a meeting with China’s ambassador to express its concern about the human rights situation in the western region of Xinjiang, the foreign ministry in Bern said on Thursday, correcting its earlier comment that it had “summoned” the envoy. – Reuters

Mr. Xi has been elusive in the past about Mr. Putin’s war, saying at one point that the Ukraine invasion “sounded the alarm for humanity.” Concerns about rising food and energy prices may have led to some trepidation at Beijing about full-throat backing of Mr. Putin. – New York Sun

Weifeng Zhong writes: According to a 2020 Lawfare survey , dozens of Chinese government websites had not implemented the more secure HTTPS protocol at the time. Two years have passed, and about half of them have not made that change. Reasons to be concerned about Chinese surveillance abound, but perhaps that cuts both ways and Big Brother is weaker than we think. That should give hope to those seeking to understand the opaque regime better. – Washington Examiner 

Hal Brands writes: The State Department’s Global Engagement Center is gradually getting better at rebutting mistruths in real time. Yet the scale of the autocracies’ disinformation effort is probably greater than during the Cold War, while America’s capabilities for addressing the problem are weaker. All things equal, truth will eventually prove more persuasive than lies. But there’s nothing equal about the information war in the developing world today. – Bloomberg

Blake Herzinger writes: Pledges of game-changing asymmetric weapons will matter little if Beijing elects to send an invasion force across the Taiwan Strait before U.S. defense corporations can fill their backlogged orders. Taiwan’s friends must not be seduced by the idea that because an after-the-fact effort worked in Ukraine, it can work in Taiwan too. Geography is working against Taipei, not for it, and years of strategic misalignment and inattention have left Taiwan’s defense forces ill-suited for the challenge they are facing. To survive, Taiwan needs its weapons prepared ahead of time—and ready on Day 1. – Foreign Policy

Asia

The Philippine government on Thursday officially rejected a request by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to resume an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs, which left thousands of people dead. – New York Times

Nineteen Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which normally serves as an unofficial barrier between the two sides, on Thursday, Taiwan’s defence ministry said, as Beijing continues its military activities near the island. – Reuters

Economic ministers from the United States and 13 Indo-Pacific countries launched negotiations on Thursday on Washington’s first major pan-Asian trade engagement effort in nearly a decade, but this time any deal will not cut tariffs. – Reuters

The Chinese navy’s “unusual behavior” in shadowing Australian warships in the South China Sea had not deterred operations in the contested waters, Australia’s navy chief said. – Associated Press

Japan’s governing party said Thursday that an internal survey found that nearly half of its national lawmakers had ties to the Unification Church, in a widening controversy that emerged after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. – Associated Press

Indian and Chinese oil buying has offset most of the fall in Russian shipments to Europe, raising questions about the impact of sanctions on Moscow that have led to soaring energy bills for European consumers. – Financial Times

Bich T. Tran writes: So far, Vietnam has a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership with China, a comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia, strategic partnerships with United Kingdom and France, but only a comprehensive partnership with the United States. From now until the 10th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive partnership, Blinken will still have the opportunity to meet with Vietnamese leaders to prepare for President Biden’s visit to Vietnam next year. Then, the two countries can formally upgrade their relationship to a strategic partnership. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Africa

The European Union said on Thursday it would provide additional support to an African military mission in Mozambique, as Islamist attacks threaten gas projects meant to reduce the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy. – Reuters

Frantic civilians are drowning as they flee a new eruption in fighting in South Sudan and perhaps hundreds have died in the attacks, the United Nations said Thursday. – Associated Press

Sierra Ballard and Emilia Columbo write: Despite extensive international investments to support the government of Mozambique and its coalition security forces, the crisis in Cabo Delgado is far from over. Intensifying violence across the province has generated new risks for civilians and the security of neighboring regions. There are clear insufficiencies in the ability of coalition forces to combat the insurgency and to respond to intensifying humanitarian needs that should be addressed. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Cybersecurity

The United States has seized over $30 million in cryptocurrency stolen by North Korean-linked hackers Lazarus from the popular online game Axie Infinity, crypto intelligence firm Chainalysis said on Thursday. – Reuters

Republican lawmakers have warned Apple that it will face intense scrutiny from Congress if the California company procures memory chips from a controversial Chinese semiconductor manufacturer for the new iPhone 14. – Financial Times

The State Department’s program offering rewards of up to $10 million for tips leading to the apprehension of cybercriminals is paying off, FBI Assistant Director for Cyber Bryan Vorndran said Wednesday. – CyberScoop

Iranian hackers spy on journalists and government officials, researchers warn. Cybersecurity researchers have uncovered another Iranian state-sponsored hacking group that has been targeting government officials, journalists, academics, and opposition leaders around the world for at least seven years. – The Record

Ophir Barel writes: Even so, the nature of the internet suggests that at least a few attacks will still break through even the most robust cyber security systems. As such, Israel must strengthen the digital literacy of its citizens. […]  In May, it released a survey conducted among Ukrainian middle school and high school teachers who were trained by IREX which revealed that 90% of the teachers used the knowledge they gained to help friends, family members, and colleagues better navigate the virtual information environment. – Washington Institute