Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Rock star Roger Waters was in Switzerland when he heard from his friend Randy Credico, a comedian and radio personality who rose to prominence during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election. Credico told Waters, a Pink Floyd co-founder, that Russia was eager to have him speak at the U.N. Security Council, the premier venue for diplomats and—increasingly—entertainers.

– Wall Street Journal

A Russian military pilot who defected to Ukraine last month said he flew his Mi-8 helicopter low over fields with its transponder off to evade detection, capping an operation planned over months with Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian lawmakers on Tuesday voted to reinstate — but postpone by a year — a key anti-corruption rule that would require them to openly disclose their assets, potentially raising new questions about the country’s commitment to fighting graft at the highest levels of government. – Washington Post

The Cuban government says it’s discovered a Russian human trafficking network that has been recruiting its citizens to fight for Vladimir Putin’s government in Ukraine — and it’s warning they’d better cut it out. – Washington Post

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched in early June, aims to reclaim land in the south and east of the country. Its goal in the south is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge through Russian-occupied territory, and its main effort so far has been in the direction of the city of Melitopol. – New York Times 

The removal of Ukraine’s minister of defense after a flurry of reports of graft and financial mismanagement in his department underscores a pivotal challenge for President Volodymyr Zelensky’s wartime leadership: stamping out the corruption that had been widespread in Ukraine for years. – New York Times

When Ukraine discovered civilian mass graves in an area recaptured from Russian troops, Russia’s ambassador in neighboring Slovakia countered with his own discovery. – New York Times

The G7 and allies have shelved regular reviews of the Russian oil price cap scheme, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, even though most Russian crude is trading above the limit because of a rally in global crude prices. – Reuters

A Russian-appointed official has acknowledged that Moscow’s forces have abandoned the Ukrainian village of Robotyne, more than a week after Kyiv announced its recapture. – Reuters

Ukrainian lawmakers voted on Tuesday to restore a requirement that officials declare their assets, a measure sought by the International Monetary Fund, but included a loophole critics say dampens its effect. – Reuters

Ukraine said on Monday its troops had regained more territory on the eastern front and were advancing south in their counteroffensive against Russian forces while President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited two front-line areas. – Reuters

Wagner, the Russian mercenary group, is set to be proscribed as a terrorist group by the UK government – meaning it will be illegal to be a member or support the organisation. – BBC

More than 300 people were killed and over 600 wounded by cluster munitions in Ukraine in 2022, according to an international watchdog, surpassing Syria as the country with the highest number of casualties from the controversial weapons for the first time in a decade. – Associated Press

The Zaporizhzhia region of southeast Ukraine has become the most recent hot spot for battles in the 18-month war, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday, as Kyiv’s forces press ahead with their counteroffensive. – Associated Press

Russia warned Tuesday it will treat any US move to station nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years as an “escalation” after media reports indicated plans to deploy the bombs on British soil. – Bloomberg

A new Russian drone strike has hit Ukrainian port facilities in the Izmail area on the River Danube, killing one person, the local governor says. – BBC

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, dozens of Russian officials and conspirators have been assassinated both in occupied Ukrainian territory and Russia. – Business Insider

David Ignatius writes: Support for Ukraine and the Global South are sometimes juxtaposed, but, in truth, they converge. This simple fact is that there won’t be a just peace to end this terrible conflict without support from the fence-sitters. To put it in stark terms: The United States won’t achieve its national security interests without becoming more involved in global development issues. – Washington Post 

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Small wonder that thousands of ethnic Ukrainians who had been indifferent to which language they spoke before the 2022 re-invasion have abandoned Russian for Ukrainian. Small wonder as well that Ukraine’s government and intellectual class are actively pursuing policies of “decolonization.” Streets, cities, towns and villages are being renamed, monuments torn down or reconfigured, and Ukrainian language and culture promoted. – The Hill 

Margarita Konaev and Owen J. Daniels write: These challenges and adjustments do not mean that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is failing, and they certainly do not mean that Russia is poised to win. Instead, they mean that Ukraine will need patience from its partners as it tries to wear down its enemy. The West will need to recalibrate its expectations to match reality, which is that this is a war of attrition. In the near term, NATO states must continue transferring weapons and other capabilities to Ukraine. They will need to give Kyiv political and military support for the long term, as well. More than anything, what Ukraine needs right now is time. – Foreign Affairs

Daniel Baer writes: All three of these measures would bolster Ukrainians’ sense of capability and their sense that their plight is understood. To be able to exact military costs inside Russia, just as Russia has done since the start of the war in Ukraine, would provide a partial leveling of the playing field. It would remind Ukrainians that as Putin tries to break them, they have the ability to resist in new ways that hurt Putin and his military. The announcement that a real Ukraine reconstruction fund—which ultimately needs to be hundreds of billions of dollars—is beginning with Russian reserves as seed funding would indicate that Ukraine’s partners are planning for a hopeful future for the beleaguered country and its people. And crucially, such commitment to the defense of Ukraine will speed the clock that Putin now finds himself racing against. – Foreign Affairs

Kseniya Kirillova writes: That does not augur a return to the policy of pre-war days; it suggests the Kremlin will have little option than sooner or later to intensify the conflict and appease the jingoists. As Andrei Soldatov and Irina Bogoran similarly concluded, sooner or later Putin will need to conjure up a new Prigozhin. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Dmitri Alperovitch writes: Razborki and elite infighting are back in Russia after more than 20 years of Putin-enforced stability, and with them comes the increasing likelihood that Russia devolves further and further into chaos, which could one day endanger Putin’s own hold on power. – Foreign Policy

Afghanistan

The United Nations released $125 million from its emergency relief fund Tuesday to boost underfunded humanitarian operations in 14 countries around the world, saying needs are skyrocketing. Afghanistan and Yemen top the list of recipients, with each getting $20 million, followed by Burkina Faso and Myanmar at $9 million each and Mali, Haiti and Venezuela at $8 million each. –  Associated Press

Editorial: The U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, said in a June report that the Taliban might be responsible for “gender apartheid.” This term should stick. Notably, South Africa’s representative to the U.N.’s Human Rights Council urged the international community to treat gender apartheid “much like it did in support of South Africa’s struggle against racial apartheid.” The United States might have surrendered most of its leverage. But that does not mean the United States should fail to use all it has left. – Washington Post

Michele Groppi and John Devine write: Back to reality, our loss is twofold. Abroad, frolicking in a sea of Western embarrassment and hypocrisy, the Taliban have magically turned time backward and purchased one-way tickets for the Dark Ages. At home, with hordes of supposedly sympathetic feminists and woke activists mysteriously gone missing, not only have we stopped caring – we appear incapable of publicly confronting even the most ridiculously grotesque forms of extremism. But it’s okay; we are progressives and, as such, we do not really need constructive debate, for we know it all already. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

The weeklong clashes between rival U.S.-backed militias in eastern Syria, where hundreds of American troops are deployed, point to dangerous seams in the coalition that has kept a lid on the defeated Islamic State group for years. That could be an opportunity for the radical group to reemerge. – Associated Press

President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey is in close contact with the United Nations on reviving the Black Sea grain initiative and he will discuss it with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at its general assembly this month, Turkish media reported. – Reuters

Frances McDonough writes: In Washington, the Biden administration has lately focused on advancing a $1.9 billion IMF loan, while lawmakers have proposed cutting bilateral assistance to incentivize change. So far, Saied has resisted the IMF’s required economic reforms, calling them “diktats.” Instead, he signed a memorandum with the European Union that could net as much as 1 billion euros for various projects, partly in exchange for controlling migration across the Mediterranean. Days later, Saudi Arabia committed $100 million in direct budgetary support and $400 million in loans. How the White House’s approach will be affected by these developments remains to be seen. – Washington Institute 

Adnan Nasser writes: In the end, no one knows for sure. But everyone knows what happened when he was gone. The best way to honor Sadr’s timeless influence is to build the Lebanon that he struggled to see in his lifetime. One of peace, coexistence of all, and support for your fellow citizens who fall on hard times. – The National Interest

China

In Xi Jinping’s strategy for securing China’s rise, the Communist Party keeps a firm grip on the economy, steering it out of an old era dependent on real estate and smokestack industries to a new one driven by innovation and consumer spending. – New York Times

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on Tuesday she does not expect any revisions to U.S. tariffs on China imposed during President Donald Trump’s administration until an ongoing review is completed by the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office. – Reuters

China turned down Japan’s proposal that it take part in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s system in which countries excluding Japan can analyse the results of sea water monitoring off Fukushima, Kyodo news agency said on Tuesday, citing unnamed diplomatic sources. – Reuters

China’s Great Wall has been pierced by Genghis Khan, the Manchus, and now, allegedly, a couple of construction workers named Zheng and Wang who wanted a shortcut. – Associated Press

China’s public is expressing concern about a potential legal change that would allow for fines and even jail time for people who offend the government’s sensibilities by wearing the wrong clothing. – Bloomberg

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has asked China to set aside its issues with India and play a “constructive role” in the upcoming G20 summit. – BBC

Joseph Bosco writes: The cumulative effect of these successive inflection points has been to strengthen the position of the West’s enemies and weaken the capacities and will of many in the West, though the final outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine hangs in the balance. If U.S. will to defend Taiwan remains as opaque as it is under the policy of strategic ambiguity, and as dilatory as it has been in helping Ukraine, China will continue to press its advantage until strategic miscalculation brings the world to perhaps the final inflection point. – The Hill

John Authers writes: Thus far, Chinese authorities have resorted to a drip-feed of targeted measures instead of the hoped for single package, as was deployed during the 2008 GFC. That, it appears, is no longer an option. Instead, the currency is inexorably weakening, while the rest of the world seems almost totally unconcerned. Can this last? – Bloomberg

Robin Harding writes: Deep reform and collaborative management of the world economy would require the US and China to work together — something that seems today more distant than ever. What world leaders can do at the G20 is signal — to everybody, not just China — their objection to policies that seek to stabilise domestic economies on the back of demand from others. – Financial Times

Mark N. Katz writes: Like it or not, the Russia-Ukraine war does not just have ramifications for the two countries at war with each other or for Russian-Western relations, but also for Sino-Western relations. […]America’s support for Ukraine, then, is not a distraction from but connected to its concerns about China. Similarly, America’s concern about China does not make Washington less concerned with countries in regions of the world distant from Beijing for the simple reason that China is active in them all. Just as it was with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, America’s competition with China now is worldwide. – Newsweek

Bryan Clark and Dan Patt write: Washington’s current military strategy aims to prove to Xi that an invasion would be defeated in battle—a notion that presupposes continued U.S. military dominance in the region. Instead, campaigning would focus on lowering his preference for aggression in the first place, making other paths more attractive. This strategy of dissuasion would require U.S. leaders to accept that China will not fade away, Xi will not give up on his goals, and U.S. military preeminence is no longer guaranteed. But focusing on a campaign of dissuasion may be the only path to peaceful coexistence in a world no longer dominated by the United States. – Foreign Policy

Asia

Days before a visit by President Joe Biden to Vietnam in which he aims to upgrade diplomatic ties, a U.S. government commission accused the country of backsliding on commitments to ensure religious freedoms. – Reuters

Myanmar has ceded its turn to chair the Southeast Asian regional bloc, an official confirmed on Tuesday, after the group agreed that an existing but widely criticised peace plan will continue to guide its response to the bloody conflict there. – Reuters

Japan will strengthen its support and cooperation with Southeast Asian nations in six areas including transportation infrastructure and maritime patrols, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday. – Reuters

China wants to work with Indonesia to expand cooperation in various areas including green energy, the digital economy, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, China’s foreign ministry reported on Wednesday, citing Premier Li Qiang. – Reuters

Australia is aiming to ramp up its engagement with Southeast Asia in the face of rising trade and geopolitical uncertainties and growing concerns over China’s slowing economy. – Bloomberg

The youngest son of Myanmar’s detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi said she has been denied urgent medical care. – BBC

Matthew C. Mai writes: The perennial American complaint that NATO members don’t pay their fair share or take their defense seriously doesn’t apply to Australia. Instead, U.S. policymakers have an ally that is pulling its weight by making meaningful investments in hard power. And by not waiting until a war breaks out to begin the process of rearming, Australia is making such a calamity less likely. – The National Interest

Michael J. Green writes: But never say never. If concerns about deterring and stopping a destructive and dangerous regional war surpass concerns about trade, regional cohesion, or retaining strategic autonomy, the current patchwork of arrangements among the United States, its bilateral allies, and like-minded partners could very well move in the direction of collective security. The basis of common values, similar threat perception, basic operating structures, and decades of experience with cooperation is there. Even without any overt Chinese use of force, Beijing’s coercive behavior against its neighbors could create this outcome in piecemeal fashion. That need not be Washington’s goal, but it should remain an option that quietly guides alliance priorities. Then it will be up to Chinese President Xi Jinping whether a NATO in the Pacific ultimately becomes reality. – Foreign Policy 

Africa

France has started talks with Niger’s military over the possible withdrawal of French troops from the West African country, according to French officials, in the wake of a coup that ousted the country’s elected president. – Wall Street Journal

Every day, Vélina Élysée Charlier drives past barricaded neighborhoods and frequently sees dead bodies lying on the street, she said, a result of score-settling between gangs and vigilantes in Haiti’s capital. – New York Times

Nigeria’s presidential election tribunal is due to rule on Wednesday on whether Bola Tinubu should stay as president after two rivals challenged his victory in February’s disputed vote. – Reuters

Central African Republic President Faustin Touadera held closed-door talks with Gabon’s junta-appointed leader in Libreville on Tuesday in the wake of the main regional bloc’s condemnation of the Aug. 30 coup. – Reuters

At least two people were killed in Guinea’s capital Conakry when armed security forces attacked the neighbourhoods of political activists on the eve of planned demonstrations against the junta that seized power in 2021, protest organisers said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States envoy to the United Nations arrived in Chad on Wednesday to meet Sudanese refugees who have fled ethnic and sexual violence in Darfur, which she described as “reminiscent” of atrocities 20 years ago that Washington declared a genocide. – Reuters

Six soldiers were charged on Tuesday for their involvement in the killing of 56 people during an army crackdown on anti-U.N. demonstrations in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo last week. – Reuters

The mandate of an East African force set up to curb militia violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been extended to December, the regional bloc that formed it said. – Reuters

Seventeen soldiers and 36 volunteer fighters have been killed in heavy clashes with militants in northern Burkina Faso, the army said on Tuesday, the worst attack in months in the West African country that for years has been overrun by hardline militants. – Reuters

Ahmed Charai writes: Third, America could also work to stabilize African currencies—perhaps through currency boards that would peg those monies to the U.S. dollar—to defeat the scourges of inflation and devaluation. American leadership, within the framework of international institutions, would allow Africa to emerge from underdevelopment and allow the world economy to benefit from its reservoir of growth. Otherwise, dictatorships will continue to make Africa synonymous with misery. – The National Interest

Cybersecurity

Huawei Technologies’ breakthrough in making an advanced chip underscores China’s determination and capacity for fighting back against U.S. sanctions, but the efforts are likely very costly and could prompt Washington to tighten curbs, analysts said. – Reuters

An infamous Russian cyberespionage group was caught attacking a critical energy facility in Ukraine, a government agency said on Tuesday. – The Record 

More than a year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has seen remarkable success repelling Russian cyberattacks. That’s due in part to expansive cybersecurity assistance from Western governments and private sector players paired with Ukraine’s remarkable investments in building up its computer response teams after repeated Russian cyberattack on its electrical grid. – CyberScoop

Bobby Ghosh writes: History suggests this is a fool’s errand. The US “can always tighten its sanctions regimes and strengthen the safeguards to slow the proliferation,” says Chua-Eoan. “But commerce will almost always force out technological secrets.” – Bloomberg