Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

The only visible human activity, besides Taliban convoys driving up and down the valley’s main road, are the remaining families packing their belongings into trucks and minibuses as they abandon Panjshir for the relative safety of Kabul. – Wall Street Journal 

Blinken’s response — “We inherited a deadline. We did not inherit a plan” — appeared to crystallize the administration’s explanation for what happened: It had inherited a bad situation from the Trump administration, which had cut a deal with the Taliban and greatly reduced the number of troops in the country. It certainly elicited laughter from Sherman, who exclaimed, “No plan at all. It’s amazing that it wasn’t much, much worse.” – Washington Post 

The director of a girls’ school in Kabul desperately wants to learn details of the Taliban’s plan for girls’ education. But she can’t attend the weekly Taliban committee meetings on education. They are for men only. – New York Times 

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers said on Tuesday there was no evidence of Islamic State or al Qaeda militants being in the country, days after Islamic State claimed responsibility for bomb attacks in the eastern city of Jalalabad. – Reuters 

U.S. President Joe Biden will use his speech at the United Nations on Tuesday to stress that ending the military engagement in Afghanistan will open a new chapter of “intensive diplomacy,” a senior administration official said. – Reuters 

Thousands more fled on foot, across the borders of Pakistan and Iran. Smaller numbers of Afghans have ventured into Turkey in hopes of reaching Europe. – NPR 

The newly-formed Taliban government is an interim one and will include women, minorities and professionals over a period of time, the group’s main spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed told reporters in Kabul Tuesday. – Bloomberg 

U.S. President Joe Biden supports a thorough investigation of the U.S. drone strike that killed up to ten Afghanistan civilians last month, the White House said on Monday. – Reuters 

A majority of voters consider it a big problem that the U.S. military left behind billions of dollars of military hardware in Afghanistan, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds. – The Hill 

Amnesty International on Monday detailed alleged human rights abuses being carried out by the Taliban about a month after the militant group took over the Afghan government. – The Hill 

Robin Emmott and John Chalmers write: The makeup of the Taliban government and the human rights concerns have limited the scope of discussions in Brussels. EU ambassadors have not debated such issues as directly paying Afghan salaries of whether money could be transferred directly to the Afghan central bank. – Reuters 

Beth Bailey writes: Z.Q. said she pursues her education in hopes that the Taliban will not be capable of running Afghanistan or that she can leave the country. […]Nonetheless, P.R. said the Taliban’s treatment of women is “heartbreaking. All I can do is let you broadcast my message to the citizens of the world. Please stand for what is right. Please stand with Afghan women once and for all.” – Washington Examiner 

Tiana Lowe writes: The Biden administration is currently committing a sort of stolen valor against Beau, as though a cancer fatality gives Biden cover for laying waste to 20 years of efforts in Afghanistan. This killing of innocent civilians on the way out will inspire an entire generation of radicalism and terror. The invocation of Beau Biden’s name is, at best, an act of intellectual dishonesty and, at worst, an unacceptable degradation of Beau’s legacy. – Washington Examiner 

Israel

Notorious anti-Israel activists Muna and Mohammed El-Kurd, who each have a record of supporting terrorism, have been included in TIME Magazine’s annual list of the 100 most-influential people in the world. – Algemeiner 

Ron Kampeas writes: While those agreements are decades older than the Abraham Accords, what’s missing from Israel-Egypt and Israel-Jordan relations are the people-to-people interactions — the normalization — that has flourished since the Abraham Accords signing. Blinken detailed the gains so far of normalization and its opportunities. – Times of Israel 

Jack Khoury writes: Even though there are a lot of weapons in the West Bank, especially in Jenin, it’s impossible to talk about an infrastructure that can challenge the Israeli security forces. […]Now the burden is with Hamas. Maybe some members of the group breathed a sigh of relief when the affair ended without a confrontation with Israel, but the end of the affair puts the group to the test. – Haaretz 

Gulf States

More than 50 anti-war groups are urging lawmakers to use the annual defense policy bill to end all U.S. support for the Saudi Arabia-led coalition fighting in Yemen’s civil war. – The Hill 

As the first senior United Arab Emirates official to visit the Biden administration touched down in Washington, the message the Gulf state sought to promote was “the strength and continuity” of the partnership between the two countries. Yet when Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s president, sat down with his American counterparts it was another of the Gulf state’s relationships that was the focus of much of the discussions: China. – Financial Times 

On September 18, 2021, the top leadership of the International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS), which is sponsored by the Qatari Regime, hosted in the organization’s headquarters in Doha a delegation on behalf of the Taliban’s government in Afghanistan, headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad ‘Abbas Stanikzai, which also included Taliban political bureau member  Al-Mawlawi Muti’ Al-Haqq, political bureau English-language spokesperson Suhail Shaheen and another bureau spokesperson, Muhammad Na’eem. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Simon Henderson writes: The more exact significance of the MbS-Tamim-Tahnoun tweet will emerge with any reaction by the UAE’s MbZ, who was away on official visits to Paris and London last week, and also any response from Bahrain, which may feel sidelined. But for the moment, a photo and 140 characters have thrown upside down the presumptions of many on whether and how one of the thorny issues for U.S. diplomacy in the Gulf could be altered. – Washington Institute 

China

Xi Jinping’s campaign against private enterprise, it is increasingly clear, is far more ambitious than meets the eye. The Chinese President is not just trying to rein in a few big tech and other companies and show who is boss in China. – Wall Street Journal 

Mainland Chinese property developers aren’t the only ones with reason to fear Beijing’s newly interventionist stance in the sector. Hong Kong property developers look set to join China Evergrande Group in the regulatory crosshairs, albeit for different reasons. – Wall Street Journal 

Hong Kong police arrested on Monday three members of a pro-democracy student group, accusing them of a “conspiracy to incite subversion” including by helping deliver snacks to prisoners with the aim of recruiting followers. – Reuters 

A tiny group of mostly pro-Beijing Hong Kong elites has held the city’s first vote since China overhauled Hong Kong’s electoral system last year to root out “anti-China” elements. – Financial Times 

President Joe Biden plans to make the case for the U.S. and China to cooperate on global threats including climate change in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, while insisting the countries are not headed for a new Cold War. – Bloomberg 

Key U.S. senators overseeing trade said the nation needs to step up efforts to assert itself in the Asia-Pacific region after China applied to join a trade treaty that was once pushed by Washington as a way to exclude Beijing. – Bloomberg 

Gen. Mark Milley , the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was “not going rogue” during his now-controversial communications with his Chinese counterpart, the original reporters behind the scoop now explain. – Washington Examiner 

Desmond Lachman writes: The prospective slowing of the Chinese economy will weigh especially heavily on the emerging market economies, which account for around half of the global economy. No longer will China’s Asian neighbors be able to count on a booming Chinese economy for their exports. Additionally, no longer will those commodity-dependent emerging market economies be able to count on high international commodity prices to be produced by the Chinese growth machine.  – The National Interest 

William Reinsch writes: This is a typical Chinese approach when the United States talks about human rights. For us it is a moral principle; for them it is an attack on the Communist Party’s control of the country. Past U.S. presidents have learned that if they persist, they will accomplish nothing with China, and they usually stop talking about it. It remains to be seen whether Biden will follow the same path, which is not noble but pragmatic. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Asia

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday he will not speak with the French president at the United Nations this week even though French anger over cancellation of a $40 billion defence contract could threaten an Australian-EU trade deal. – Reuters 

The Philippines is backing a new defence partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia, hoping it can maintain the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, a view that contrasts sharply with some of its neighbours. – Reuters 

A U.N. expert has urged Indonesia to provide an independence activist in its Papua province with proper medical care to “keep him from dying in prison”, after reports that his health had deteriorated. – Reuters 

Max Boot writes: The United States has had ruptures with France before — in 1956 over the Suez crisis, in 1966 over France’s withdrawal from the NATO military command, in 2003 over France’s opposition to the invasion of Iraq — and America’s oldest alliance has always emerged intact. It will survive this time, too. Biden should have handled France better, but he deserves credit for a major win in the U.S. competition with China — the most significant strategic struggle of the 21st century. – Washington Post 

Sam Roggeveen writes: Why is Australia worthy of such favorable treatment? It’s not just that it is one of America’s oldest and closest allies. It’s that for many American observers of China’s increasingly aggressive behavior, Australia is also the canary in the coal mine for great power competition with China. – New York Times 

Gideon Rachman writes: The attempt to contain Chinese power will also heighten tensions with Beijing. But the alternative would be to accept uncomplainingly China’s efforts to dominate the Indo-Pacific. The US and its allies have decided to draw a line. – Financial Times 

Anthony B. Kim writes: In many profound and enduring ways, Taiwan and the U.S. have become strong partners sharing powerful commitments to the values of democracy, the rule of law, and free markets. The relationship today is a fruitful partnership that is more constructive and forward-looking than ever. – The Daily Signal 

Robert E. Kelly writes: So why would the South do this? Again, outside of the small percentage of Left, there is almost no interest or enthusiasm for this project. And if Seoul gets nothing from the treaty, then it is easy to understand why. In short, it is easy to predict there will be no treaty until North Korea is dramatically different. – The National Interest 

Europe

The European Union is discussing a possible delay of upcoming trade talks with the U.S. following outrage from France over a canceled Australian submarine contract that was scuttled in favor of a new defense pact with Washington and the U.K. – Bloomberg  

European Union foreign ministers expressed support and solidarity with France on Monday during a meeting in New York to discuss Australia’s scrapping of a $40 billion submarine order with Paris in favor of a U.S. and British deal. – Reuters 

British prime minister Boris Johnson once worried that his friendliness with Donald Trump would leave him out in the cold when Democrat Joe Biden took over the White House. – Reuters 

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has launched an investigation into a data breach involving the email addresses of dozens of Afghan interpreters who worked for British forces. – BBC 

Thierry Breton, the EU commissioner for internal markets, has warned that “something is broken” in transatlantic relations, as Franco-American tensions over Washington’s new Indo-Pacific security pact threaten to spill over into trade and technology. – Financial Times 

Joe Biden has too many domestic priorities to find time to negotiate a trade deal with the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson said ahead of a meeting with the American president in Washington on Tuesday. – Bloomberg 

The International Monetary Fund began a virtual mission to Ukraine as the government seeks to resume a $5 billion loan that’s been frozen for months because its terms weren’t met. – Bloomberg 

France’s top diplomat declared Monday that there is a “crisis of trust” in the United States after a Pacific defense deal stung France and left Europe wondering about its longtime ally across the Atlantic. – Times of Israel 

France has always insisted on playing a major role in the Israel-Palestinian Arab conflict. However its credibility and status as a senior partner again has been eroded, this time by the AUKUS Alliance. France will have to adjust to the fact that it is a declining power with a reduced sphere of influence. – Arutz Sheva 

Walter Russell Mead writes: Paris aspires to occupy a significant place in world affairs, and it is in America’s interest to help the French find and fulfill it. But the Franco-American strategic dialogue has been superficial. It needs to become deeper and more frank if the West is going to cohere. – Wall Street Journal 

Gerard Baker writes: Through its history the EU has prioritized—to great success—its economic interest, safe in the knowledge that the U.S. security umbrella was there to protect it. Now that the U.S. really needs it to share some of the costs of that umbrella, the EU is missing in action. – Wall Street Journal 

Aaron Blake writes: Biden’s approach is much more sugar than vinegar — a traditional approach to diplomacy. But it and the promises that have come with it also create expectations — both domestically and internationally. And allies are making clear that those expectations aren’t being met and the promises haven’t been realized. – Washington Post  

Eliot A. Cohen writes: The sudden blowing up of the $66 billion Franco-Australian deal required deft U.S. diplomacy to cushion the blow; the Australians could not have done it on their own and perhaps were not inclined to. It is unfortunate that U.S. statecraft could not encompass this substantial strategic industrial achievement while sustaining an old and valuable relationship with a good, if prickly ally. It is much better to devise a diplomatic balm and administer it before delivering this kind of blow to a proud and friendly state. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Anthony H. Cordesman and Grace Hwang write: This analysis shows that NATO needs to be fixed rather than broken, and there are no real European alternatives to Atlantic deterrence and defense. It shows that the U.S. and each of its NATO European allies need to focus on making the alliance more effective. They need to cooperate far more in shaping NATO’s real-world strategy and creating actual levels of meaningful modernization and cooperation. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Max Bergmann writes: The United States needs to do something big to reset relations with France. It should use this opportunity to offer its unreserved support for E.U. defense initiatives. Doing so would represent a sea change in America’s approach to Europe. It would also lay the groundwork for European defense integration, strengthen the European Union, and hopefully reestablish a strong Franco-American partnership. – War on the Rocks 

The Americas

The Biden administration has begun sending many of the approximately 16,000 migrants who have overwhelmed this small city in recent days to their home country of Haiti, including some who haven’t lived in the impoverished island nation for years. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States said on Monday it had put Guatemala’s attorney general and five Salvadoran Supreme Court judges on a list of “undemocratic and corrupt” officials, in a sign of the Biden government’s frustration with Central American authorities. – Reuters 

Nicaragua on Monday accused Colombia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) of not respecting a 2012 ruling on their maritime boundaries in the western Caribbean by that same court. – Reuters 

Editorial: It’s hard to believe that a re-elected Dr. Tedros will do anything other than maintain the WHO status quo. The Biden Administration keeps touting its faith in international institutions, but it refuses to do the hard work of making them accountable. A decent alternative to Dr. Tedros could at least insist on transparency and refuse to cover for authoritarian deception. – Wall Street Journal 

Cybersecurity

Indonesian authorities have found no evidence that the country’s main intelligence service’s computers were compromised, after a U.S.-based private cybersecurity company alerted them of a suspected breach of its internal networks by a Chinese hacking group, an official said. – Associated Press 

Twitter said Monday it will pay $809.5 million to settle a consolidated class action lawsuit alleging that the company misled investors about how much its user base was growing and how much users interacted with its platform. – Associated Press 

Russia’s internet regulator is poised to significantly raise the fines it has slapped on U.S. technology companies such as Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc. as the Kremlin escalates its push to curb access to information online. – Bloomberg 

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is demanding that Facebook, Twitter and YouTube provide information regarding their policies surrounding mitigating extremist content on their platforms. – The Hill 

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) is pressing Facebook for documents regarding what he calls its “apparent failure” to protect user welfare based on recent reporting that revealed the platform is being used for human trafficking and that top executives had apparent knowledge of Instagram’s detrimental effects on teen users’ mental health. – The Hill 

Agriculture group New Cooperative group was hit by a ransomware attack over the weekend, potentially endangering operations of a company key to the agricultural supply chain. – The Hill 

Dmitri Alperovitch writes: In the short term, the Biden administration is right to bolster the federal government’s defensive capabilities and to encourage private companies to do the same. But the United States must recognize that it will not be able to defend its way out of the ransomware problem. – New York Times 

Long War

A Rwandan court convicted Paul Rusesabagina, a U.S. resident immortalized by Hollywood for saving more than 1,200 people during the 1994 genocide, on a string of charges including terrorism and sentenced him to 25 years in prison, effectively ending the activist career of one of President Paul Kagame’s sharpest critics. – Wall Street Journal 

Although no one in the United States could realize it at the time, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late 1979 was a seminal moment in the life of a young, devout Sunni Muslim whose father was a billionaire construction magnate in Saudi Arabia. – Washington Times 

Anchal Vohra writes: The U.S. deal with the Taliban and subsequent withdrawal from Afghanistan suggest Washington could learn to reconcile with, and perhaps even rehabilitate, extremist groups that do not claim to be a direct threat. Jihadists in the Middle East have noticed and are hoping to eventually cut similar deals with the Biden administration. – Foreign Policy