Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Five U.S. citizens detained in Iran who are expected to be swapped for five Iranians imprisoned in the United States as early as next week are “in full health,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Tuesday. – Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for new international negotiations on nuclear disarmament on Tuesday, saying that not only Russia and the United States but also China should be involved. […]Preventing Iran from producing uranium that could contribute to nuclear weapon production “remains an important task,” he said. – Reuters

Iraq has started relocating Iranian Kurdish groups from Iraq’s Kurdish region frontiers with Iran to camps far from the border as part of a security agreement between Baghdad and Tehran, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iran on Tuesday identified the five prisoners it hopes to see freed in the United States in exchange for five Iranian-Americans now held in Tehran and billions in assets once held by South Korea. – Associated Press

The Biden administration rejected a claim by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi that there will be no restrictions on $6 billion in oil sales proceeds that will be freed up as part of a prisoner swap. – Bloomberg

The United States and Iran appeared to diverge on a key term of the negotiated $6 billion prisoner-swap deal finalized this week. – The Hill

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said the $6 billion in funds the U.S. agreed to unfreeze in exchange for five U.S. prisoners will be spent “wherever we need it,” despite the Biden administration saying the funds are restricted to humanitarian use. – The Hill

Jailed Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi has allegedly been assaulted by prison officials at Evin prison after she refused to adhere to the mandatory hijab. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

An Iranian court has ordered the confiscation of an apartment belonging to writer Soroush Mozaffar Moghadam, who is currently in Germany, citing his “propaganda activities against the system” as part of recent nationwide protests, in a move underscoring the Islamic republic’s clampdown on dissent. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

The Tehran Jewish community urged its members to refrain from publicly celebrating Rosh Hashanah, following escalating tensions in the Iranian capital. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Monday condemned a meeting of Intelligence Affairs minister Gila Gamliel with exiled Iranians in London. “Foreigners have played a role in increasing the instability in Iran,” the ministry said in a statement. – Ynet

Suspected Iranian nation-state hackers attacked organizations in Brazil, Israel and the United Arab Emirates using previously unidentified backdoor malware, researchers have discovered. – The Record 

Editorial: The worst result is that this ransom will encourage more hostage-taking. Iran has profited from grabbing these Americans, and the U.S. has given other nations no reason to fear doing the same. Until the U.S. demonstrates that snatching Americans will have significant costs, the world’s rogues will keep taking them. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: They are not fooled by Biden’s gimmicks and the bribes for Tehran’s aggression. Our president won’t enforce sanctions even when the sanctioned assets are sitting in U.S. waters. Biden and his maladministration may claim this $6 billion boondoggle is the outcome of masterful diplomacy. But the U.S. and its allies will suffer gravely for it. – Washington Examiner

Israel

Israel’s Supreme Court sparred with the government on Tuesday, arguing over a law that limits the justices’ power during a hearing that waded into the most fundamental questions over which branch of government has the final word on legislation. – Wall Street Journal

Thousands of Israeli academics and artists have urged U.S. President Joe Biden and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to shun Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to the United States next week, underlining the divide between Israel’s far-right government and segments of the country’s population. – Associated Press

Two people were wounded in a shooting attack near Huwara in the northern West Bank on Tuesday evening, according to Magen David Adom. The two suffered from injuries caused by shards of glass, according to MDA. – Jerusalem Post

Terror groups in the West Bank are better armed than the Palestinian Authority security forces, as the communication between the PA erodes and communities under its control fall apart, Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland said on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Palestinians rioted along the border of the Gaza Strip on Tuesday evening in protest against restrictions National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir intends to implement against Palestinian prisoners. According to Palestinian reports, the rioters burned tires and set off explosives near the border fence. – Jerusalem Post

The extremist Jerusalem Faction called for protests on Wednesday after a yeshiva student was arrested for not showing up to the IDF draft office when called up, according to Israeli media.- Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk told Hebrew media on Tuesday. – Times of Israel 

Editorial: Israel’s current position in the Middle East is undeniably intertwined with Britain’s historic role in the region. In this evolving world, our ties with London must remain unwavering and robust. Cleverly’s positive visit and his expressions of solidarity with Israel symbolize the enduring strength of our bond. The next step ought to be a long-overdue visit by the British sovereign, King Charles III, which would be the ultimate manifestation of that bond. We hope it happens sooner rather than later. – Jerusalem Post

Lazar Berman writes: There was much excitement among Israel’s leadership after Saturday’s announcement at the G20 summit that India, Saudi Arabia, the United States, the European Union and others would create an ambitious rail and shipping corridor that will link the subcontinent with the Middle East and Europe. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed it as nothing less than “a cooperation project that is the greatest in our history.” But the initiative, which would rival China’s Belt and Road scheme, if it happens at all, is much less about normalization – or about Israel – than Jerusalem is letting on. – Times of Israel

Ehud Yaari writes: Meanwhile, the lesson of this current episode with Abbas should be that more research is called for to throw light on this half-forgotten chapter of history to refute such claims. More excavations are needed along with a fresh look at what has already been excavated. Only more accurate information can help remove the Khazars from the shadows of mystery and antisemitism and place them instead in the correct historical context. But whatever the historical reality, the Khazars are not related to the current conflict. Abbas has chosen to bark under the wrong tree. – Washington Institute

Afghanistan

The U.N. rights chief accused Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban on Tuesday of a “shocking level of oppression” of women and girls and said human rights in the country were in a state of collapse. – Reuters

The Taliban on Tuesday rejected Pakistani government accusations that they’re to blame for the closure of a key border crossing. Pakistan shut the vital commercial artery of Torkham in its northwest last Wednesday after guards from the two countries exchanged fire. – Associated Press

Trucks remain stranded amid growing tensions at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, following a firefight that led to the closure of the countries’ main crossing point. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Korean Peninsula

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to the Vostochny Cosmodrome Wednesday with smiles and warm words, taking him on a tour of the launch complex at the start of their first meeting in four years. – Washington Post

North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea off its east coast on Wednesday, just an hour before leader Kim Jong Un met President Vladimir Putin in Russia. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that his country offers its “full and unconditional support” for Russia’s “sacred fight” to defend its security interests, in an apparent reference to the war in Ukraine, and said Pyongyang will always stand with Moscow on the “anti-imperialist” front. – Associated Press 

Jonathan Corrado writes: Last, the United States must expand its strategic imagination in intelligence reports and military planning. As explored in this project by the Atlantic Council’s Markus Garlauskas, the likelihood of a two-front conflict is non-zero and worth serious consideration and accommodation. Unfortunately, cognitive and organizational biases prevent the United States from acknowledging these risks and taking the proper precautions, as shown here. History shows that North Korea cannot be ignored. The more preparation is done today, the easier the answer will be tomorrow. – War on the Rocks

Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker write: If that means opening North Korean airspace to Russian reconnaissance overflights, ports to the Russian Navy, and airfields to advanced Russian fighter aircraft—all of which happened before, in the mid-1980s—then Pyongyang will likely agree. If it means enhanced North Korean military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and enhanced Russian nuclear and missile support to Pyongyang, we should not be surprised. – Foreign Policy

South Asia

According to India’s government, the microprocessor chips that power all things digital will soon be fully made in India. It’s an ambition as unlikely as it is bold, and speaks volumes about Mr. Modi’s belief that he can propel India into the top tier of advanced technology manufacturing. – New York Times

India will spend 2 billion rupees ($24 million) to upgrade an airfield near the disputed Himalayan boundary with China to bolster its defenses – Bloomberg

Martine Wolf writes: If the G20 did not exist, we would have to invent it. Some would counter that the world is so divided that this grouping is unworkable. Yet this fact merely makes the G20, or something like it, even more essential: one does not have to talk to people one already agrees with. A still stronger justification for its existence is that we are no longer able to live in isolated pockets: the health of our planet and our economy depends on our co-operation. Since global challenges are more pressing than ever, so is the need to work together in such a group. – Financial Times

James Spellman writes: Upward momentum is building. Concerns about India’s democracy backsliding are relegated to the sidelines. The West and India are anxious for greater cooperation. So, too, is China eager to deepen ties with India, but in its own way in alignment with its own views of world order through global frameworks that China builds free of Western biases. – The Hill

Nishank Motwani writes: Yet, the military establishment, due to its inherent structure and the role it plays in Pakistan’s politics, lacks the ability and willingness to hold itself accountable. This lack of accountability highlights the importance of democratic elections and governments as they serve as vital pressure release valves for the public, making it possible to change elected leaders for poor performance. China should ask what happens if the military cannot deliver. – Middle East Institute

Europe

Britain’s BAE Systems (BAES.L), Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.T), and Italy’s Leonardo (LDOF.MI) have agreed the next steps to deliver the concept phase of a next-generation combat aircraft, BAE Systems said on Tuesday. The three nations agreed in December 2022 to collaborate to build an advanced front-line fighter to enter service around the middle of the next decade. – Reuters

The UK has reached a preliminary agreement with the European Union to access the bloc’s border agency, according to people familiar with the matter, in the latest effort to rebuild cooperation between the two sides after Brexit. – Bloomberg

Rishi Sunak learnt of the arrest of a parliamentary researcher accused of spying for China in a “timely fashion”, but still pressed ahead with stepping up engagement with Beijing. Government insiders told the Financial Times that Sunak and UK foreign secretary James Cleverly were told of the Metropolitan Police’s actions close to the time of the arrest in March. – Financial Times

Russia’s use of drones to target both civilian and military targets in Ukraine is boosting European interest in an intelligence analysis system made by Israel Aerospace Industries that could help predict such attacks, according to company officials. – Defense News

There is no set timeline to decide whether or how Saudi Arabia could join into the multinational Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), though a “feasibility study” due next year could set the parameters for further discussion, the top UK official in the program told Breaking Defense today. – Breaking Defense

The Americas

Splits within South American trade bloc Mercosur have dampened hopes in the European Union of a trade deal, which could fall apart if it does not get done by the end of the year, diplomats and members of the European Parliament told Reuters. – Reuters

China’s anti-graft watchdog chief Li Xi will attend a summit with the Group of 77 developing nations in Havana, Cuba, from Sept. 14 to 16, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Tuesday. Li will also visit Cuba, Brazil and Egypt from Sept. 16 to 26, Xinhua said. – Reuters

The president of the Dominican Republic announced Monday that he has suspended issuing visas to Haitians, and he threatened to shut down land, air and sea traffic between the two neighbors over their latest dispute. – Associated Press

The U.S.-Mexico border is the world’s deadliest land migration route, according to U.N. migration agency figures published on Tuesday, with hundreds losing their lives attempting to make perilous desert crossings. – Reuters

In a rare testimony before US lawmakers, a Canadian politician has urged for co-operation between the two countries to combat foreign interference by Beijing. Michael Chong was himself allegedly targeted by China for criticising its human rights record. He was invited to speak about his experience before a US Congressional committee tasked with monitoring China. He said Beijing’s actions pose a “serious, national threat” to Canada. – BBC

Michael Shifter and Andrea Colombo write: It will be very hard to restore the relationship to its former strength in light of profound changes in both countries and current geopolitics. But with Latin America facing an uncertain future, it will be essential for Washington to maintain these existing ties and to find a new basis for cooperation with Bogotá. If it fails to do so, it could lose one of its few effective partners in a region where it desperately needs them. – Foreign Affairs

Cybersecurity

The Department of Defense has determined China to be its biggest threat in the cybersecurity domain, according to a newly declassified summary of a classified report, which was transmitted to Congress in May. – Washington Examiner

U.S. military cyberwarfare team has recently conducted a “defensive hunt operation” in the Baltic NATO state of Lithuania amid heightened tensions surrounding Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM) has told Newsweek. – Newsweek

Hackers attacked the national power grid of an unspecified Asian country earlier this year using malware typically deployed by personnel connected to China’s government, researchers said Tuesday. – The Record

China and Russia are prepared to unleash a flurry of cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure and defense networks should war break out, according to a Pentagon strategy unveiled this week. Such tactics, meant to sow chaos, divert precious resources and paralyze military mobilization, were observed in Eastern Europe during Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, a conflict that colors the Pentagon’s new 2023 Cyber Strategy. An unclassified summary of the document was made public Sept. 12. – Defense News 

Learning from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and watching out for China, the Pentagon is working to develop new cyber capabilities and expanding information sharing with allies and partners in order to stay ahead of any threats posed by adversaries, according to an unclassified summary of a new department-wide cyber strategy announced today. – Breaking Defense 

Protecting weapons systems is a top concern for the U.S. Space Operations Command, but there aren’t enough cyber operators to monitor the myriad interconnected platforms.  – Defense One 

Matt Sheehan writes: Despite the political and ideological differences, China’s policy community remains committed to understanding the U.S. approach to governing AI and learning from it where it can. That willingness to learn from a rival can be a major advantage in geopolitics. If policymakers in the United States can manage to do the same, it might just give them a leg up in the competition to shape the future of AI, both at home and abroad. – Foreign Policy