Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Ten months with no communication with his family. Three hundred days in solitary confinement. A cell that’s fully lit around the clock. These are some of conditions faced by Johan Floderus, a European Union official from Sweden who was arrested in Iran in April last year and has been held hostage since, his family revealed on Sunday. – New York Times

British foreign minister James Cleverly will travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories this week, where he will press for renewed dialogue on a two-state solution and commit to tackling threats to regional security, including from Iran. – Reuters

The U.S. on Friday divulged it disrupted in April a multimillion-dollar shipment of crude oil by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, seizing more than 980,000 barrels of contraband crude oil that violated U.S. sanctions. – Reuters

When $6 billion of unfrozen Iranian funds are wired to banks in Qatar as early as next week, it will trigger a carefully choreographed sequence that will see as many as five detained U.S. dual nationals leave Iran and a similar number of Iranian prisoners held in the U.S. fly home, according to eight Iranian and other sources familiar with the negotiations who spoke to Reuters. – Reuters

Michael White had only recently arrived in a grim Iranian jail when a curious fellow prisoner, an English-speaking Iranian, approached him in the courtyard for a conversation. – Associated Press

The head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency on Sunday said that Israel is prepared to strike “in the heart of Tehran” to track down the perpetrators of what he said were over two dozen Iranian attempts to hit Israeli and Jewish targets around the world. – Associated Press

Israel believes Russia could sell advanced weaponry to Iran, the director of the Mossad intelligence agency said, in rare public criticism of Moscow by an Israeli official. – Bloomberg

An Iranian Revolutionary Court issued indictments for three people accused of participating in a deadly attack on a holy shrine south of Iran last month, the judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported. – Bloomberg

Authorities in Iran’s southwest have arrested six people accused of “organizing riots” on the first anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death in custody which triggered nationwide protests, state media reported Saturday. – Agence France-Presse

Israel will act against Iran’s enrichment of uranium at above 60% because that means it was admitting pursuit of nuclear weapons, National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi told the World Summit on Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya on Monday morning. – Jerusalem Post

The Mossad and other intelligence bodies have thwarted 27 Iranian terrorist plots against Israelis on almost every continent so far this year, Mossad Director David Barnea said Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Multiple articles in Iranian pro-regime media have been hyping the “Tactical Sayyad” air-defense system over the past two weeks. Iran claims this system, which is launched from a military-style truck, can detect up to 24 targets at a time at a distance of around 180 km. It can then engage up to 12 of those targets. Iran claims this is an indigenous system, built and developed in Iran. This would be in contrast to other systems that Iran may have developed by modeling them on foreign air-defense missiles, such as S-200s. – Jerusalem Post

A social media account that published an image showing an Israeli general photoshopped to look like Hitler was likely operated by Iranians as part of a social disinformation campaign, the Shin Bet security agency said Sunday. – Times of Israel

Jonathan Spyer writes: Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, suggested recently that his country is closer to military action against Hezbollah than at any time since the 2006 war. The U.S., meanwhile, continues its outreach to Tehran. Iran is waging a multifront military and political struggle—the unity of the arenas. Its enemies are divided. – Wall Street Journal

Michael Rubin writes: Fifteen years ago at a campaign event in Philadelphia, Obama said of Republicans, “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun.” How ironic that today, when Iran brings a gun, Biden and his European partners wave cash. No wonder it is open season on Americans and Europeans worldwide. – Washington Examiner

Joe Buccino writes: Keeping a tiny element of several thousand American troops would have served regional security and spoke to an enduring American commitment to the region. In addition, attempts at a new set of American-led nuclear negotiations needed to be made more explicit, given the timing and regional sentiment. – Jerusalem Post

Israel

Immediately after Israel’s government voted to weaken the Supreme Court in July, the legal challenges started pouring in. Those petitions, eight in total, will be the subject of an unprecedented hearing on Tuesday — when the country’s highest court will consider a direct challenge to its own power. – Washington Post

The Israeli military said a failed rocket launch attempt was carried out on Sunday from the occupied West Bank, and the armed branch of the Hamas group calling itself Al-Ayyash group claimed responsibility for the launch. – Reuters

A 16-year-old Palestinian boy was shot dead by Israeli forces on Saturday near the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, Palestinian health officials said. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit California’s Silicon Valley next week before traveling to New York for the U.N. General Assembly, his office said on Sunday. – Reuters

An Israeli delegation arrived in Saudi Arabia on Sunday to attend a U.N. conference on world heritage sites, in the first public visit by government officials to the kingdom, an Israeli official said. – Associated Press

Israel is preparing to send a search and rescue mission and humanitarian aid to Morocco after a powerful earthquake shook the North African country and killed hundreds of people, officials said Saturday. – Agence France-Presse

The United States on Thursday condemned Israel for signing a cinema cooperation agreement with Russia. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly meet with Elon Musk when he travels to San Francisco next week. The meeting would come despite Musk being accused of amplifying antisemitism on his X social media platform and his embroilment in a feud with the Anti-Defamation League. – Times of Israel

The Israeli military on Monday reportedly admitted that troops mistakenly shot, wounded, and detained three Palestinian suspects during an attack on an army post near the West Bank city of Jenin two weeks ago. – Times of Israel

In a last-ditch effort, a group of 15 Democratic senators penned a letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday, urging him not to admit Israel into the US Visa Waiver Program (VWP) at the end of the month, charging Israel has continued to discriminate against Palestinian-Americans, despite assurances that it would start treating all US travelers equally. – Times of Israel

Editorial: In other words, hectoring by President Biden’s camarilla stayed Mr. Netanyahu’s hand. We have little doubt that similar efforts are afoot in respect of, say, the Iran nuclear deal and judicial reform. It’s just the way Mr. Biden works. – New York Sun

Syria

Demonstrators in the southern Syrian city of Sweida tore down a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad on Friday as anti-government protests that began three weeks ago swelled with crowds coming in from surrounding villages. – Reuters

The United Nations special envoy for Syria Sunday urged donors not to reduce their funding as the war-torn country’s economic crisis spirals. – Associated Press

A U.S.-backed Syrian force declared its operations in eastern Syria completed Friday after almost two weeks of fighting with local tribesmen left dozens of people dead. – Associated Press

Erik Yavorsky writes: As acts of dissent increase in the regime’s historically important minority areas in Suwayda and among Alawites on the coast, Assad may be more willing to make significant concessions. One possibility is regional states working with Washington to carve out narrow, project-specific sanctions exemptions for initiatives that help alleviate the people’s suffering. But this cannot be agreed to unless Assad carries out his end of the deal—namely, releasing prisoners, conducting negotiations under UN Security Council Resolution 2254 to end the war, and engaging with the Syrian opposition over modifications to the constitution, among other things. Although the regime is unlikely to fall anytime soon, the growing protests in traditionally loyal areas may still force Assad’s hand on some matters. – Washington Institute

Mohammed Hassan writes: If these steps are taken, it would go a long way toward ending the repercussions of the crisis or minimizing its effects. However, ignoring or failing to implement them would likely lead to a new phase of conflict in the region, one that would not be limited to the local community and its members on one side and the SDF on the other. Rather, such a conflict would be open to other parties that would doubtless try to exploit it both politically and militarily. – Middle East Institute

Lebanon

Lebanese judicial authorities have questioned two people at the request of Turkey on suspicion of being involved in the 2019 escape of auto tycoon Carlos Ghosn from Japan to Lebanon via Istanbul, officials said Friday. – Associated Press

Islamist factions in Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp said Sunday they will abide by a cease-fire after three days of clashes killed at least five people and left hundreds of families displaced. – Associated Press

Clashes in a Palestinian refugee camp in south Lebanon have left 20 people wounded, official news agency NNA reported Friday, weeks after a deadly outbreak of violence rocked Ain al-Helweh. – Agence France-Presse

Arabian Peninsula

The U.S. and its partners in Europe, the Middle East and Asia will on Saturday unveil plans to build a transit corridor linking the three regions, a U.S. official said, a massive initiative that faces high hurdles but could eventually undercut China’s inroads in a key global trade route. The project aims to connect Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and potentially Israel by freight rail, then use sea transport to reach India and Europe, spanning some of the world’s biggest economies over a total distance of more than 3,000 miles. – Wall Street Journal

Trade between Iran and the United Arab Emirates has surged as the Gulf’s commercial capital eased restrictions on business activity between the two neighbours, business people and officials say. – Financial Times

Editorial: Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa’s visit to Washington is designed to demonstrate U.S. staying power in the Persian Gulf and underscore the value of the strategic partnership. Bahrain is officially a major non-NATO ally and home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet. This gives Washington leverage. The Biden administration should use it to aid Mr. al-Khawaja and other prisoners. The crown prince, who was once seen as a moderate influence inside the royal family, replaced his great-uncle as prime minister in November 2020. The hunger strike offers him an opportunity to show statesmanship. Authorities should not arrest Ms. al-Khawaja when she comes to see her father. They should send him to Denmark in her care. – Washington Post

Middle East & North Africa

As rescuers spent Sunday struggling to reach the remote mountain villages hit hardest by Morocco’s strongest earthquake in over a century, the toll of the disaster came into sharper focus. The number of dead surpassed 2,000, thousands more slept outside to avoid their damaged homes and the healthcare system buckled as it treated more than 2,400 wounded people. International aid began to trickle in, but humanitarian groups complained of delays. – Wall Street Journal

The Red Cross Society of China will give the Moroccan Red Crescent $200,000 for emergency humanitarian assistance, Chinese state media reported on Monday, after a deadly earthquake struck the North African country late on Friday. – Reuters

Morocco’s deadly earthquake prompted Algeria, which cut ties with its neighbour two years ago, to put aside the countries’ bad relations and open its air space to aid flights. – Reuters

Paris has rescinded a special honor it bestowed on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas because of his recent antisemitic comments minimizing the Holocaust. – Associated Press

Gaza Strip exports to Israel resumed Sunday, Palestinian and Israeli officials said, days after exports were suspended following an alleged attempt to smuggle explosives from the coastal enclave. – Agence France-Presse

Several signs now point to the possibility of an escalation in tensions ahead of the High Holy Days, as Palestinian activists continue to warn of a hunger strike. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Azoulay cited King Mohammed V’s rescue of Jews during the Holocaust and said, “Thousands of Jews were saved by my country, my king, my people.” As Morocco mourns, we extend our condolences to the families of all the victims and send wishes for the speedy recovery of the injured. We are proud that the Jewish state is supporting Morocco in its hour of need. – Jerusalem Post

David Schenker writes: Today, Washington’s commitment to its allies in the Middle East is suspect, and this skepticism is engendering an epidemic of strategic hedging with China, Russia and Iran. In this context, U.S. follow-through on Western Sahara commitments made to one of Washington’s oldest and closest allies is being watched closely. As the Biden administration contemplates taking on important new security obligations in the region, it is imperative to honor the promises the U.S. has already made. – The Hill

Seth J. Frantzman writes: In an uncertain world that is changing rapidly, the Israeli connection to neighbors in the Middle East through the Abraham Accords, Negev Forum, and other groups and bilateral ties is essential. This is reflected in the response on the first day after the earthquake in Morocco. It also is important as it comes three years after the Abraham Accords, as the region prepares for another anniversary of the important agreement. It shows all the added value of these peace deals in the region. – Jerusalem Post

China

Xi Jinping has placed the Communist Party—and himself—in greater command of China’s economy over the past decade. Now his centralization of power is delaying the country’s response to its worst economic slowdown in years. – Wall Street Journal

China is planning to dispatch Vice President Han Zheng to an annual United Nations meeting of government leaders later this month, according to people briefed on the matter, instead of sending its top foreign policy official on a broader U.S. trip as previously signaled. Beijing’s decision to send Han, who plays a largely ceremonial role as the vice president, adds a wrinkle to the planning process for Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s expected attendance at a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders to be held in San Francisco in November. – Wall Street Journal

Today, Xi is more known for his absences. He didn’t travel outside China for more than two years during the pandemic. This year he has only left the country twice, and this weekend he will skip the summit of the Group of 20 advanced and developing economies in New Delhi. – Wall Street Journal

China’s military is conducting a sophisticated exploitation campaign designed to “fill gaps” in its capabilities by targeting current and former U.S. service members and harvesting specialized knowledge they’ve gained, a top general warned in a message obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

President Xi Jinping called for unity and stability within the military during an inspection trip, following upheaval in the highest echelons of the People’s Liberation Army. – Bloomberg

Editorial: China and Russia had been trying to lure countries of the Global South to their concept of a new world order, not dominated by Western institutions and the United States, showcasing alternative models to Western-style democracies. Now, the two authoritarian giants are flailing. Let’s hope the world is paying attention. – Washington Pos

Asia

The U.S. entered a new and strengthened diplomatic partnership with Vietnam, a country where it fought for years to prevent a Communist takeover, as Washington seeks to counterbalance China in the region. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China’s sweeping territorial claims. – Associated Press

Thousands of soldiers from the United States, Indonesia, Australia and other allied forces demonstrated their armor capabilities on Sunday in combat drills on the Indonesian island of Java at a time of increased Chinese aggression in the region. – Associated Press

Visiting Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Friday pledged $21.7 billion in new Chinese investment in Indonesia to strengthen the countries’ economic and political ties, an official said. – Associated Press

Armenia appealed to the US, Europe and Iran to help defuse a standoff with neighboring Azerbaijan over blocked aid deliveries to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which have raised tensions to their highest point since a 2020 war. – Bloomberg

President Joe Biden implied that a Chinese economic decline could be good news for Taiwan during remarks at a press conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, when asked about reports of China’s economic struggles. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: Myanmar is perhaps Southeast Asia’s least developed country. ASEAN could exert serious economic leverage through a combined embargo on oil and palm oil exports to Myanmar, sanctions on the state-owned oil company and targeted sanctions aimed at the junta leaders and their bank accounts and other assets held in Southeast Asian countries. ASEAN could also open a dialogue with the National Unity Government in exile as the legitimate representative of Myanmar’s people. But such measures would require a unity of purpose, such as that shown by the European Union in the face of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Such unity does not exist in ASEAN. Until it does, ASEAN is consigning itself to irrelevance. – Washington Post

Editorial: None of this is going to come up, we’d guess, when President Biden sits down with his hosts in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Yet the Vietnamese heirs to Ho Chi Minh and his regime will know exactly who Mr. Biden is and exactly where he was when America abandoned the Free Vietnamese regime they were trying to defeat. So what will they make of it if Mr. Biden asks them for support against Communist China? – New York Sun

Niall Ferguson writes: A major crisis over Taiwan would have immediate and dire financial consequences before a shot was even fired. But to assume that this prospect will prevent an escalation from Cold War II to World War III risks making the same mistake as the nuclear theorists of the 1960s — who were blissfully unaware of just how close mutually assured destruction had come over Cuba. – Bloomberg

Robert A. Manning writes: Biden laid a foundation for countering Chinese claims at the Camp David summit last month, issuing an unusually strident joint statement denouncing China’s claims and actions in the South China Sea. One way to tie the various regional bodies together would be to work with like-minded states at the East Asia Summit to demand a freeze on new construction in the South China Sea, compliance with the convention on the law of the sea, and call for a code of conduct for the Western Pacific. Even if China rejected such ideas, the U.S. and its partners could forge a near-consensus, isolate Beijing and create a basis for further international responses. – The Hill

Africa

One of Tanzania’s main opposition leaders and former presidential candidate Tundu Lissu was released on bail early on Monday, hours after he was detained by police for allegedly holding an illegal gathering. – Reuters

The World Bank on Friday announced $340 million in new financing to help Chad address several crises, including $90 million to respond to the influx of refugees fleeing conflict in neighbouring Sudan, it said in a statement. – Reuters

Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema will visit China from Sunday, China’s foreign ministry announced on Friday, bringing the indebted African country’s long-running struggle to restructure its external debt to its biggest creditor’s door. – Reuters

Ethiopian soldiers killed about two dozen civilians earlier this week in the Amhara region during house-to-house searches after being attacked by militiamen who have been battling federal forces for more than a month, six local residents said. – Reuters

Rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo strapped explosive belts around baby twin girls as a booby-trap for security forces – just one incident in a surge in violence against children there, the United Nations said on Friday. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday held a phone call with the interim leader of Mali, Assimi Goita, and discussed topics including anti-terrorism efforts and the crisis in Mali’s neighbour Niger, the Kremlin said in a statement. – Reuters

Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina has resigned after he was officially confirmed as a candidate in the Indian Ocean Island nation’s presidential elections scheduled for November 9, according to the country’s constitutional court. – Reuters

An airstrike in a town in Somalia caused several casualties, including children, residents and authorities said, while three members of an al-Qaida-linked extremist group were killed. – Associated Press

A military camp in Mali’s restive north was attacked Friday, a day after two separate assaults by al-Qaida-linked insurgents killed 49 civilians and 15 government soldiers, the military said. – Associated Press

A drone attack Sunday on an open market south of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, killed at least 43 people, activists and a medical group said, as the military and a powerful rival paramilitary group battle for control of the country. – Associated Press

Niger’s new military leaders accused France of amassing forces for a possible military intervention in the country following the coup in July. French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that he would only take action at the demand of deposed Nigerien leader Mohamed Bazoum. – Associated Press

A southern African regional force said it has “significantly paralyzed terrorist activities” in northern Mozambique, where fighters linked to the Islamic State had prompted TotalEnergies SE to freeze work on a $20 billion natural gas project. – Bloomberg

Ugandan security forces have killed hundreds of Islamic State-linked militants in clashes in the nation’s border region, President Yoweri Museveni said. – Bloomberg

Gabon’s military government plans hold free elections in two years, newly appointed Prime Minister Raymond Ndong Sima said. – Bloomberg

French President Emmanuel Macron rejected a demand by Niger’s military rulers to withdraw its troops from the West African nation after a coup strained relations between the two countries. – Bloomberg

Nigeria said it was rallying support to join the Group of 20 as a permanent member, seizing on a moment to lay its claim after the global bloc admitted the 55-member African Union at a summit this weekend. – Bloomberg

The Group of 20 nations agreed to grant the African Union permanent membership status in a move aimed at giving the continent a stronger voice on global issues such as climate change and emerging-market debt. – Bloomberg

United States

With less than six months to prepare for his federal election-interference trial, Donald Trump’s lawyers are turning to a familiar strategy for the former president: long-shot legal motions that publicly criticize the case and raise novel questions that could serve to delay it. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: There are other potential dangers, not least from adversaries abroad. Russia, China and Iran might all seek to exploit U.S. election-year divisions. But there are already enough political risks to justify Democratic alarm. Democrats may be right that Mr. Trump will be their salvation again, as he has been in every election since 2016. But if they stick with the Biden-Harris ticket, and wake up on the day after the election to discover Mr. Trump has repeated his 2016 miracle, don’t blame Republicans. Democrats will have made an equally decisive contribution. – Wall Street Journal

David E. Weisberg writes: If Lee had run for president, he would have needed to win the electoral votes of multiple states that had stayed in the Union—and every voter would have known about his role in the Civil War. Given the Unionist majority nationwide, there was no reason to deny voters a free choice. That’s why the Insurrection Clause didn’t bar anyone from serving as president—and still doesn’t. – Wall Street Journal

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. writes: Mr. Trump’s exaggerations of the Hunter Biden scandal may be regrettable but, hearteningly, are less atypical of pre-Trumpian politics than the Post pretends. At least they are exaggerated renditions of real questions that need answers. It’s hard not to see the Post engaged in a kind of jiu-jitsu to make the questions go away by focusing on Mr. Trump’s abuse of them. Which is the real problem: Both political parties would find their strategy of peddling tall tales impossible—the circle of suggestion would be impossible to close—if mainstream journalism wasn’t so full of cowardly conformists, who ask not what is true but how to advance the desired narrative, and therefore have no credibility with the public. – Wall Street Journal

Aaron Blake writes: It’s not as if our legal system has shied away from consequential questions in recent months, though. They will get a hearing — many dozens of them. If that weren’t happening, and if there was a consensus that Trump’s conduct violated the 14th Amendment, it would be an easier call. But it’s not, and it’s getting late in the 2024 process to suddenly go down such a pitfall-laden road. – Washington Post

Leon E. Panetta writes: U.S. funding for the World Bank and IMF is a worthwhile investment. Through these institutions, the United States, its allies and partners have provided a lifeline to Ukraine and countries affected by Russia’s heinous war. In the longer term, a strong and well-resourced World Bank and IMF provide sustainable funding for low- and middle-income countries to realize their economic potential instead of falling into Beijing’s debt traps and coercion. Every dollar channeled into these institutions helps to foster sustainable economic growth and strengthens U.S. global leadership. – The Hill

Defense

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said Sunday it was a “mistake” to use military families as “political pawns” in response to Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) holds on the confirmations of more than 300 military officers to protest the Pentagon’s new abortion policy. – The Hill

Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) is calling for the Senate to change its rules amid Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) continued blockade of more than 300 military promotions continues. – The Hill

Former President Trump criticized the Biden administration Friday on an unexpected front: experimentation with making Army tanks all-electric. – The Hill

Tom Rogan writes: Sadly, Baldwin’s indirect effort to enable the PLA is not yet concluded. Supported by other members of Congress such as Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Baldwin recently passed an amendment that will make it slower and more expensive for the Navy to build ships that can actually fight and survive the PLA. Brilliant. Some in Congress say that the LCS is better than nothing. But even that’s not true. These ships drain crews, port facilities, maintenance teams/schedules, and budgets from assets that might actually be able to fight and win. The LCS? Do give up the ship. – Washington Examiner

Dov S. Zakheim writes: The Pentagon has ramped up the pressure on Tuberville to relent. And it is right to do so. He is undermining the nation’s defenses and acting as an unwitting accomplice to Vladimir Putin’s depredations in Europe and Xi Jinping’s aggressiveness in Asia. As Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro, who was born in Cuba, put it so elegantly, “for someone who was born in a communist country, I would have never imagined that actually one of our own senators would actually be aiding and abetting communists and other autocratic regimes around the world.” It is far past the time that Tuberville woke up and faced the reality of the great damage he is doing to the national security of the United States. – The Hill