Fdd's overnight brief

Afghanistan

Spurred by mounting evidence of Taliban abuses since the group seized power two months ago, the United Nations top human rights body voted Thursday to appoint an independent expert backed by specialist advisers to investigate and report on abuses in Afghanistan. – New York Times  

For three days and nights, the bodies of four accused kidnappers dangled from construction cranes — three of them hoisted high above a prettily painted traffic plaza — for all the citizenry to see. After dark, when the desert winds whistled through the streets, witnesses said, the bloodied figures swayed. – Washington Post 

On Thursday, the International Refugee Assistance Project, whose lawyers are working on his behalf, filed a lawsuit in a federal court in San Francisco against Secretary of State Antony Blinken, alleging the administration failed in its legal obligations under the Afghan Allies Protection Act to help his family despite his work for the U.S. government during the 20-year war there. – Associated Press 

Since the radical Islamists swept to power seven weeks ago they have repeatedly promised a more moderate, inclusive brand of rule than during their last stint, when minorities were brutally persecuted. But members of the Hazara community here don’t believe them. – Agence France-Presse 

An Afghan journalist who started reporting on the Taliban before the U.S. war in Afghanistan said in an interview on Thursday that nothing has changed from how the militant group ruled that country in the 1990s to how it is now ruling after the fall of Kabul in August. – The Hill 

Ahmad ‘Abd Al-Tawwab writes: Some countries may have to maintain ties with the Taliban, because it is now the one that decides whether to heed the interests of others in [Afghanistan], or thwart them. But these ties are no excuse for these countries to promote a false image of the Taliban, or fail to warn about the danger it poses to mankind and to civilization, or hinder those who do voice such warnings. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Turkey

Turkey has made a request to the U.S. to buy 40 Lockheed Martin-made F-16 fighter jets and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes, as the NATO ally looks to modernize its Air Force after the purchase of F-35 jets fell through, sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters 

A Kuwaiti passenger plane made an emergency landing at Trabzon airport in northern Turkey on Thursday following a bomb threat reported to the airline’s headquarters, an official said. – Associated Press 

Challenging Western sanctions, NATO ally Turkey has pledged to further its defense industry cooperation with Russia, including fighter jet and aircraft engine technologies, a second batch of S-400 air defense systems, and submarines. – Defense News  

David Gardner writes: After lobotomising Turkish governance, it is tricky to go up against greater powers in the badlands surrounding Turkey. With a tamed media that hangs on his every outburst, and an inner circle shorn of all dissonant opinion, Erdogan has all the power he sought but no way of testing how to wield it. – Financial Times 

Matt Powers writes: SADAT is part of a new race for private military capabilities. As seen in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh, the proliferation of conflicts with negligible Western engagement may create continued opportunities for Turkey to employ mercenaries. And, if Turkey’s mixed domestic appetite for military interventions abroad persists, it is easy to see the appeal in augmenting Turkish military forces or its partners with Syrian proxies. But this should not lead Turkey watchers to exaggerate SADAT’s reach or ignore the constraints it faces. – War on the Rocks 

Iraq

Outside the headquarters of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, one of the main Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, fighters have posted a giant banner showing the U.S. Capitol building swallowed up by red tents, symbols of a defining event in Shiite history. – New York Times 

Ashleigh Whelan and Mohanad Adnan write: Yet despite Iraqis’ hopes for change, the election is unlikely to have decisive results without an increased turnout and will otherwise likely lead to protracted negotiations to form a government. A new electoral system—combined with political parties’ infighting and inability to organize into viable coalitions—means some winning candidates might be elected with very few votes. This will almost certainly prompt legal challenges and “sour grapes” media campaigns run by those unhappy with the outcome. – Washington Institute 

Ali Al-Mikdam writes: As Iraqi voters decide whether to stay home or go to the polls on elections day, many questions remain unanswered. This country has many changes, more political fluctuations, and fast-moving events. It is only in time that fate and what awaits Iraqis after the October vote can be known. – Washington Institute 

Douglas Ollivant writes: Anyone concerned about the future of Iraq should be hoping for a majority government. If Iraq can begin the process of reform, start to build infrastructure, and gradually develop a non-oil economy, it would then have a fighting chance against the very real problems that the country’s elite has — to date — avoided confronting. Conversely, if Iraq’s politicians attempt to again muddle through and avoid making hard choices about Iraq’s path forward, then conditions could quickly worsen. Iraq’s elites may try to just keep playing the same game, but the chess board is crumbling beneath them. – War on the Rocks 

Middle East & North Africa

Jordan’s foreign minister on Thursday pushed back against a report that the country’s monarch, King Abdullah II, went out of his way to hide the purchase of more than a dozen luxury homes worth more than $106 million, saying there was “nothing secretive” about the transactions. – Associated Press 

Algeria, the main backer of Western Sahara’s Polisario Front independence movement, calls on Morocco to withdraw from a key buffer zone, after the United Nations named a new envoy.. – Times of Israel 

Morocco’s King Mohammed named a new government on Thursday after last month’s election, keeping the foreign and interior ministers in place but appointing Nadia Fettah Alaoui as finance minister, the state news agency reported. – Reuters 

Ezzedine C. Fishere writes: That’s more than enough to buy Egypt’s purported strategic cooperation. After all, most perks of this cooperation are policies the regime has deep interest in maintaining. The administration can work with Egypt on these issues while tying the congressionally benchmarked funds to genuine improvements in its human rights behavior, at a lower cost in energy and time. – Washington Post  

Mariam Ben Slama writes: While camps like Burj-El-Barajneh have merged into the urban architecture of the city over the years, contrasting the planning processes of the more recent Zaatari and Azraq camps in Jordan, these sites all demonstrate the tensions between the camps’ architects and inhabitants in their senses of what the architecture of a refugee camp should prioritize. As such, the physical structure of these camps provides a means to explore the power dynamics between refugees, humanitarian organizations, and the state apparatus at play. – Washington Institute 

China

The CIA is creating a new center focused exclusively on gathering intelligence about China and countering its espionage against the United States, another sign that senior U.S. officials are preparing for an all-encompassing, years-long struggle with Beijing. – Washington Post  

As competition between the United States and China intensifies, more Americans now say the Asian country is more powerful economically, a reversal from two years ago when a plurality said the United States had an economic advantage, according to a survey released Thursday by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. – Washington Post 

China will strengthen supervision of the online payments industry and continue its anti-monopoly crackdown, the governor of the central bank said, indicating Beijing will press ahead with a regulatory crackdown on the country’s technology giants. – Agence France-Presse 

A top adviser to Hong Kong’s leader says the Asian financial hub will still enact a local version of a Chinese anti-sanctions law that has spooked businesses after the legislation was temporarily shelved. – Bloomberg 

China will make the protection of nature a priority and crack down on damage to habitats, the government said in a policy paper days before it hosts talks aimed at drawing up a new global biodiversity treaty. – Reuters 

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday his talks with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Switzerland on Wednesday avoided the acrimony of a meeting in March and that more were needed to avert conflict between the two countries. – Reuters 

The editor of China’s national English-language newspaper suggested Thursday that the country should use airstrikes to kill American service members stationed in Taiwan. – Newsweek 

Scott Kennedy and Jude Blanchette write: It is this feature of China’s state capitalist system—the expansive and expanding role of the CCP—that poses the most significant challenges not only in how the workings and structure of China’s economy are understood, but also in how market economies can and should respond. – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

John G. Ferrari and William C. Greenwalt write: Planning under traditional acquisition processes could then commence on a new submarine design for delivery post-2040. We are sure that the U.S. Navy can come up with 100 reasons not to do any of this — and some of them, on their face, might seem valid. But now is not the time to shy away from risk. We are in a period of strategic vulnerability with China. They believe they are ascending, and we need to place them on the horns of strategic dilemmas now, not two decades from now. – The Hill 

Tom Rogan writes: Ultimately, the U.S. and China are locked in a new Cold War. Nothing will change until one side assumes long-term dominance. But considering the economic and military stakes involved in this struggle, it makes sense that Biden and Xi build a functional personal relationship. – Washington Examiner 

Harlan Ullman writes: China’s National Day occurred on Oct. 1. China was signaling by this display that Taiwan would eventually return to the fold, even by force. […]Next, the U.S. must not focus excessively on China’s military threat, as it is doing, or exaggerate it. As the Evergrande real estate debacle demonstrated, a financial explosion in China could prove far more economically threatening to the rest of the world than any ambitions to seize Taiwan. – The Hill 

James Jay Carafano writes: So far, the administration’s policies on Taiwan have been generally constructive, but the U.S. response to the overflights has been minimalist and likely inadequate. Biden can make up for that by committing to strong U.S. support of Taiwan for the long haul and by encouraging our allies – and particularly the Quad partners – to do likewise. – The Hill 

Asia

Tensions have escalated since Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party was elected president, leading to a cessation of formal dialogue between Beijing and Taiwan. Taiwan’s premier said Tuesday that the island must be on alert for China’s “over the top” military activities. Taiwan’s defense minister said Wednesday that military tensions with Beijing are at their worst point in more than four decades. – Washington Post  

A U.S. special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines have been secretly operating in Taiwan to train military forces there, U.S. officials said, part of efforts to shore up the island’s defenses as concern regarding potential Chinese aggression mounts. – Wall Street Journal 

China reiterated calls for the United States to cut off military ties with Taiwan on Friday, in a cautious response to reports that United States Marines have been stationed on the self-ruled island for more than a year to strengthen its defenses against intensifying Chinese aggression. – Washington Post 

A nuclear-powered Navy submarine has been damaged in a collision in the South China Sea, injuring U.S. sailors but leaving the multibillion-dollar vessel operational, officials said. – Washington Post 

Australia’s former prime minister has accused China of being a bully and expressed enthusiastic support for Taiwan while visiting the democratically ruled island. – Associated Press 

A group of French senators visiting Taiwan as part of a regular parliamentary exchange met with President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday morning during a trip that comes in a particularly tense moment between China and the self-ruled island. – Associated Press 

Two lawmakers on key national security committees — one a Republican in the Senate, the other a Democrat in the House — called on the Biden administration to abandon the longtime American policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan and make clear that the United States would defend the island nation should China launch an attack in the near future. – Politico 

Europe

Poland’s constitutional court on Thursday set up a head-on collision with the European Union by ruling that the country’s Constitution trumps some laws set by the bloc, a decision that threatens to dissolve the glue that holds the union’s 27 members together. – New York Times  

Australia’s assertion that it could not inform France of its top-secret talks with the United States and Britain to build nuclear submarines is “childish”, the French envoy to Canberra said on Friday. – Reuters 

The high-profile falling-out between the U.S. and France over the AUKUS agreement shouldn’t “cause a rift” in the transatlantic alliance, the head of NATO said on Thursday. – Newsweek 

Chad P. Bown and Cecilia Malmstrom write: A September spat between Washington and Paris over the United States’ submarine deal with Australia nearly scuttled the Pittsburgh meeting altogether. The council needs to become a flexible institution that can manage these sorts of transatlantic strains. In so doing, it can provide the United States and the EU with the impetus to collaborate on shared global challenges that neither can tackle alone. – Foreign Affairs 

Janusz Bugajski writes: After the failure in Afghanistan, the U.S. needs to demonstrate strategic success by strengthening relations with key allies in the geopolitically important Black Sea region. While Moscow aspires to dominate the region and project its power toward the Middle East and the Balkans, Beijing seeks a major foothold in this important energy corridor between Central Asia and Europe.  – The Hill 

The Americas

Former U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning has waited four years to visit Canada. But when an invitation from the Canadian government finally came, it turned out that immigration authorities just wanted the chance to physically remove her from the country. […]In 2013, Manning was sentenced to 35 years in military prison for passing on a vast trove of classified diplomatic and U.S. military cables to the WikiLeaks website. – Washington Post  

Officials from Mexico and the United States are developing a new framework for their governments’ security relationship that is more “holistic” in addressing crime and will tackle a broader range of issues than the previous initiative. – Associated Press 

The number of U.S.-bound Haitian migrants temporarily stuck in northern Colombia has risen to about 20,000, a senior U.S. official said Thursday, echoing reports from a local human rights organization. – Associated Press 

Ecuador is aiming to negotiate trade deals with China, Russia and South Korea in the next four years, the Andean nation’s Production and International Trade Minister said on Thursday, adding that closing a deal with the United States is a priority. – Reuters 

The United States and Mexico are hashing out a security arrangement to replace the Merida Initiative that will focus on exchanging information and the root causes of violence, in a bid to soothe bilateral friction, Mexican government sources and U.S. officials said. – Reuters 

A former U.S. special envoy to Haiti who blasted the Biden administration as he resigned last month over the deportations of hundreds of migrants told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday that Washington must rethink its approach to the Caribbean nation. – Reuters 

Gil Troy writes: Kamala Harris’s inability to reject a student’s agitated slurs against America was disturbing. But Ms. Harris’s response was especially alarming because she wasn’t alarmed. Her answer proclaimed that, in her world, hearing someone falsely accuse Israel and America of genocide is unremarkable. – Wall Street Journal 

Brooke Harrington writes: We already see momentum building in the form of the enormous size of the Pandora Papers, which is even larger than the Panama Papers — formerly the biggest data leak in history — and involves information from 14 offshore sources instead of one. This suggests that whistle-blowers are not only emboldened now, but also may be cooperating internationally, to do what lawmakers cannot: holding accountable the most wealthy and powerful people in the world in the court of public opinion. – New York Times 

Defense

The Pentagon on Thursday began its biggest effort ever to prepare the military for the effects of climate change with the release of a 32-page strategy. – The Hill 

The U.S. Army will send to Guam one of the two Iron Dome air-and-missile defense batteries it recently purchased as an interim solution for cruise missile defense, according to an Oct. 7 statement from the 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command. – Defense News 

The U.S. Army has completed its delivery of the first hypersonic weapon capability to a unit two days ahead of deadline, according to service officials from the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office. Those officials were on the ground at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state as the unit unloaded the last of the trucks containing equipment for the battery. – Defense News 

The agency in charge of developing and launching America’s spy satellites is turning to industry for new capabilities. – Defense News 

US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro confirmed on 5 October that he supports and plans to resource the operational plans put into place by the US Navy (USN) and US Marine Corps (USMC) leadership teams. – Jane’s 360