Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Fierce fighting rumbled on in east Ukraine, as Moscow denied Kyiv’s claims that Russia was preparing to abandon a nuclear-power plant in the country’s south that it has occupied since March. – Wall Street Journal

Pope Francis defended his practice of not naming Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine, saying that his condemnation of Moscow has been clear even though not explicit. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia has postponed arms-control talks scheduled for this week, U.S. officials said, a fresh setback to efforts to shore up the last major nuclear-weapons treaty between Washington and Moscow. – Wall Street Journal 

Russian forces are digging trenches and erecting barriers to strengthen their defenses against the possibility of a new Ukrainian offensive in the south following Moscow’s loss of a key city there, a research group said in a report published on Sunday. – New York Times 

With everything happening, it is completely insane,” said Nino Rosebashvili, an anchor at a YouTube channel run by the movement founded by Mr. Navalny. Mr. Putin, the anchor suggested, has taken to presiding over the most humdrum of events to avoid linking himself with Russia’s stumbling war against Ukraine. – New York Times 

Even though scenes like this have been repeated across Ukraine wherever the Russians have retreated, the clump of villagers and police officers seemed stunned on Monday as they stood at the lip of a common grave in Pravdyne, a village near the city of Kherson. – New York Times 

A communications line created between the militaries of the United States and Russia at the start of Moscow’s war against Ukraine has been used only once so far, a U.S. official told Reuters. – Reuters

The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms. – Reuters

The United States will announce new aid on Tuesday to help Ukraine restore electricity as its people faced another week of brutal cold and darkness after Russian missile strikes on its power grid caused rolling blackouts. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that it welcomed a Vatican offer to provide a negotiating platform to resolve the Ukraine conflict, but that Kyiv’s position made this impossible. – Reuters

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told a gathering of seven Nordic and Baltic foreign ministers on Monday that his country needed transformers and improved air defences to stave off Russian air strikes on energy infrastructure. – Reuters  

The pace of global shipping activity is set to lose steam next year as economic turmoil, conflict in Ukraine and the impact of the pandemic weaken the outlook for trade, U.N. agency UNCTAD said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Ukraine’s military said on Monday Moscow had banned Ukrainian technicians who have refused to sign contracts with Russia’s atomic energy firm from entering the vast Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that Russian forces seized in March. – Reuters 

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg will call on allies to pledge more winter aid for Kyiv at a meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, after Ukraine’s president told residents to brace for another week of cold and darkness due to Russian attacks on infrastructure. – Reuters    

The United States is still talking to Russia about a deal to free jailed Americans Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan but Moscow has not provided a “serious response” to any of its proposals, a senior U.S. diplomat said in comments published on Monday. – Reuters

Ukraine’s NATO partners are set to discuss more air-defense systems for the fight against Russia this week, but there won’t be any meaningful progress on a 14-year-old pledge to let Kyiv join their alliance. – Bloomberg

Canada’s foreign minister said she’s hopeful national police and courts can soon move to seize Russian assets and sell them off to support Ukraine, despite the lack of action under a new law so far. – Bloomberg  

US officials said Russia had postponed crucial nuclear weapons talks that were due to begin on Tuesday, marking a setback for the last remaining arms treaty between the powers and providing further evidence of fraying diplomatic ties since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. – Financial Times 

Russian forces may be preparing to leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which Russia has occupied since the early months of the war this year, according to Ukrainian authorities. – The Daily Beast 

Editorial: There’s another parallel that Mr. Putin doesn’t speak about. Despite his modest salary, some claim that Mr. Putin controls wealth that makes him the richest man in the world. One of Castro’s former, longtime bodyguards wrote a scathing expose—“The Double Life of Fidel Castro”—that detailed Castro’s private life of luxury and fortune. The Fidel fete in Moscow is a reminder that the world’s axis of dictators works together to harm U.S. interests and global freedom. – Wall Street Journal 

James Stavridis writes: With a land war favoring Ukraine and a brutal air war favoring Russia, the West’s best option will be to significantly increase its assistance to Ukraine on the air war side of the conflict. Giving the Ukrainians more tools to close their own skies may be the key to forcing the Russians to ultimately negotiate, perhaps as soon as early spring, given the success Zelenskiy and his military have achieved on the ground. – Bloomberg 

Dan Hannan writes: If you think that Putin would fight to the death to avoid such terms, you are not using your imagination. A defeated country is in no position to bargain, and the bill could rise much higher. War crimes trials, reparations, disarmament, and, yes, territorial awards. The conversation will eventually move into whether Japan should have the Kuril Islands, Finland Karelia, Germany Konigsberg. Separatist movements within the Russian Federation might receive recognition. – Washington Examiner 

Bryan Clark and Timothy A. Walton write: Hundreds of MQ-9s are getting ready to be retired alongside expiring AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles. Dozens of MQ-1Cs, four of which were proposed for transfer to Ukraine, are also available, as are numerous airborne jamming pods. The United States should send some of these excess defense articles to Ukraine. The transfers would help defend the Ukrainian people from Russia’s illicit drone warfare and aid U.S. and allied militaries in developing sustainable air defense schemes that guard against drone and missile salvoes in the Pacific and beyond. – The Hill

Harlan Ullman writes: As the USSR imploded, at some stage, Putin’s regime will become unstable. Of many contingencies, not only is the West least prepared for this one, so is Russia. And therein rests the danger. – The Hill  

Zhanna L. Malekos Smith writes: More optimistically, the Woomera Manual on the International Law of Military Space Activities and Operations — which is poised to become the “definitive document” in 2023 on military and security law in space — could provide additional guidance on targeting commercial space systems in armed conflict. On the one hand, analyzing how to best minimize harm to civilians using dual-use technology during armed conflict is context-driven; however, as a guiding principle of jurisprudence, simply because an action may be lawful, does not necessarily mean it should be done. – The Hill 

Sascha Brodsky writes: The U.S. needs to learn from lapses in Ukraine, said Stuart Kaufman, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Delaware. The U.S. needs to rely less on technology to improve its intelligence assessments. “We’ve got great signals intelligence, and we’ve got great photo-reconnaissance,” he said. “What we need is more human intelligence to get at that the human side of military performance. That’s our weak spot.” – The Daily Beast 

Andrew Beck writes: The diplomatic tidepools that pit Russia against certain geopolitical foils and pair her with confederates are inevitable. Every brand eventually establishes a position in the public’s mind, and no amount of censure or promotion can forestall this inevitably. It is the law of perception. Russia’s brand draws crude lines in the international marketplace, a perception that Putin has not only exacerbated, but given the Russian people a cause to glory in: fighting against the perennial enemy of American global influence. The Western elite polarizing their institutions and media organs against Russia will not influence Putin or Russians to change their brand trajectory, but steel their resolve to triumph with it intact. – The National Interest

Turkey

Turkey’s army needs just a few days to be ready for a ground incursion into northern Syria and such a decision may come at a cabinet meeting on Monday, Turkish officials said, as Turkish forces bombarded a Kurdish militia across the border. – Reuters 

After years of tension, a handshake between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi last week opened the door to a flurry of back-door diplomacy between intelligence officials, two sources told Reuters. – Reuters 

Neville Teller writes: If he does carry out his plan, Erdogan will undoubtedly enhance his political standing at home, ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023. So it is more likely than not that Erdogan’s new ground offensive will take place and that in addition to widespread disruption and loss of life in northern Syria, vast numbers of reluctant Syrian refugees will be relocated to his safe zone. – Jerusalem Post 

Middle East & North Africa

The chief of Russian forces in Syria has met with a Kurdish commander over threats by Turkey to launch a new incursion into northern Syria, a Kurdish spokesman and an Arab TV station said Monday. – Associated Press 

Tara D. Sonenshine writes: Lastly, we need good public messaging strategies to rebuild American support for Syria, and for extending our democratic values even when we continue to debate our own. By now we should all know that wars are rarely limited to the regions in which they occur. – The Hill 

Ronnie Chatah writes: Recreating the circumstances that led to the STL to enable an international port blast investigation would be a daunting challenge, requiring U.N. Security Council approval of a request by a local majority coalition and adherence to its implementation. That opportunity may be tenuous. But standing against political violence and picking up from a journey that began in 2005 should not be negotiable. A majority worth embracing would work to reclaim a battered state with “Change” and “Opposition” in alliance. – Middle East Institute   

China

Small protests against China’s strict “zero covid” policy occurred in several cities Monday evening, as citizens defied a police crackdown and threats of reprisal, with Beijing blaming “foreign forces” even as authorities moved to vaccinate more seniors and relax some distancing measures. – Washington Post 

President Xi Jinping faces a difficult choice between loosening China’s zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy or doubling down on restrictions that have locked down neighborhoods and stifled the country’s economy over the past three years. – Wall Street Journal

On China’s heavily censored social media, a new target has emerged for internet police: blank sheets of white paper. – Wall Street Journal

The White House voiced careful support for protesters demonstrating against restrictive Covid-19 policies in China, saying people around the world should have the right to protest peacefully. – Wall Street Journal

Protests are erupting in major cities in China over President Xi Jinping’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19, an unusual show of defiance in the country as the economic and social costs from snap lockdowns and other strict restrictions escalate. – Wall Street Journal

Chief executive John Lee said he would seek Beijing’s intervention after Hong Kong’s top court ruled against the government in a national security case involving pro-democracy newspaper tycoon Jimmy Lai, a rare move that heightened concern over the role of the city’s independent judiciary. – Wall Street Journal

The surprise eruption of protests in China over Covid lockdowns presents President Biden with his latest challenge in balancing an embrace of democracy with the need to prevent a fast-decaying relationship with an autocratic nation from rupturing. – New York Times 

Chinese authorities have begun inquiries into some of the people who gathered at weekend protests against COVID-19 curbs, three people who were at the Beijing demonstrations told Reuters, as police remained out in numbers on the city’s streets. – Reuters

China’s military said on Tuesday it drove away a U.S. guided-missile cruiser that “illegally intruded” into waters near the South China Sea’s Spratly Islands. – Reuters 

The rare street protests that erupted in cities across China over the weekend were a referendum against President Xi Jinping’s zero-COVID policy and the strongest public defiance during his political career, China analysts said. – Reuters

Rapid advancements in China’s military capabilities pose increasing risks to American supremacy in outer space, the head of the United States military’s space wing said on Monday. – Reuters 

Chinese universities are sending students home as the ruling Communist Party tightens anti-virus controls and tries to prevent more protests after crowds angered by its severe “zero COVID” restrictions called for President Xi Jinping to resign in the biggest show of public dissent in decades. – Associated Press 

Hong Kong’s leader said he’ll ask Beijing to determine whether foreign lawyers can work on national security cases in the city, a move with repercussions for the upcoming trial of jailed pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai. – CNN

The US is pushing European allies to take a harder stance towards Beijing as it tries to leverage its leadership on Ukraine to gain more support from Nato countries for its efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. – Financial Times  

China’s development of military air platforms continues to show strong links to designs and concepts originating from the West. – Janes

Editorial: But after so many months of insisting that the Communist Party and Mr. Xi know best — that rigid “zero covid” is the only correct approach — changing course would imply they erred. China’s economy and its people’s health depend on whether this authoritarian system can respond to the voices of protest, ditch its own propaganda and show flexibility. – Washington Post 

Editorial: President Joe Biden’s weakness is not what the international community and oppressed people around the world expect from the U.S. — or at least not what they should expect. The Biden administration should be speaking plainly. It should observe that these protests reflect genuine, deep, and popular concerns on the part of the Chinese people. The administration should demand that Chinese authorities respect the basic human rights of their citizens as well as foreign citizens in China, such as the BBC journalist who was attacked and temporarily detained by Chinese police in Shanghai. – Washington Examiner 

Jianli Yang writes: Watching the treads of tanks in Tiananmen Square crush young lives made me realize that China must change. These protests have yielded a make-or-break moment for the people of China. We must maintain our faith that the Chinese people are prepared to join all those around the world who now live in free countries. An opening for significant change could come in the next few weeks or months — or it may take a few more years. Of course, it will never come without collective effort — and that includes the international community. Accordingly, those outside China must be ready to help bring about political change in the country. – Washington Post 

William McGurn writes: By insisting on his innocence, Jimmy Lai knows he has surrendered any hope for leniency. But he is showing that a man can live as a free person, even in a Chinese prison, as long as he refuses to lie. Hong Kong’s Communist-backed authorities have yet to realize that he’s no longer really on trial. They are. – Wall Street Journal

Vivian Wang writes: The streets emptied, and what was left was, again, uncertainty — about what, if anything, would come next. On Monday, the streets were quiet, as lockdowns and Covid closures continued, though police officers guarded some subway stops and intersections. Online, some discussed plans for another gathering that night, proposing potential demands for attendees to coalesce around, such as a government apology to Urumqi. But others worried that police officers had already infiltrated the group; some said that they had received phone calls from the local police asking where they had been the night before. By early evening, police cars lined the area where people had chosen to gather that evening. Attendees were sparse. – New York Times 

Paul Krugman writes: In short, what we can learn from China is broader than the failure of specific policies; it is that we should beware of would-be autocrats who insist, regardless of the evidence, that they’re always right. – New York Times  

Edward White and Tom Mitchell write: China’s success in preventing uncontrolled Covid outbreaks for the first two years of the pandemic means the population has not developed natural immunity to the virus — a problem exacerbated by the patchy vaccination coverage among the elderly. Chinese and US scientists recently predicted that an uncontrolled Omicron outbreak would cause demand for critical care units to outstrip supply by 15.6 times and result in almost 1.6mn deaths. “ – Financial Times 

Gordon G. Chang writes: Washington, through its timidity, paved the way for Beijing to take ever more provocative actions and led American allies to question Washington’s leadership and trustworthiness as an ally. This, even though the United States and the Philippines are parties to a 1951 mutual defense treaty. – The Hill 

Michael Rubin writes: Burns should leave the embassy compound and visit Beijing University, other campuses, and those who escape from lockdown centers and prison camps. He should do so without the permission of Chinese Foreign Ministry minders. The Senate confirmed Burns to be ambassador to China, not to the Chinese Communist Party. Now more than ever, Washington needs someone who can reach beyond the ruling cabal. – 19FortyFive 

Chels Michta writes: The deepening of the Sino-Russian alliance in the wake of the war in Ukraine should serve as a warning that once again our prewar assumptions and planning may not survive contact with reality. As with previous bids for hegemonic control of Eurasia in the 20th century, Europe may become the principal battleground should China throws its weight fully behind its Russian ally. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

John Lee writes: The US and its allies continue to enjoy considerable and even decisive leverage and advantages in the region vis-à-vis China. Getting others in the region to adopt a mindset concomitant with this assessment is a necessary step for the US and its allies to ensure that Chinese insistence on the inevitability of its success is unfounded. – Hudson Institute

Asia

A brutal defeat for Taiwan’s ruling party in local elections over the weekend could reduce chances of military conflict with China, according to political analysts, though some warned it could expose the island to subtler forms of pressure from its giant neighbor. – Wall Street Journal    

Australia’s shift to nuclear-powered submarines will assure its South Pacific neighbors of its commitment to regional security, Britain’s Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific said Monday. – Associated Press 

John Bolton writes: Now, however, is the time for diplomatic rock ’n’ roll. Let’s prevent whining from isolationists that America didn’t realize what it was undertaking if, sooner rather than later, China provokes a crisis in Taiwan. Taipei is the epicenter of what for Washington could be another “present at the creation” moment—as Harry Truman’s secretary of state, Dean Acheson, described the beginning of the postwar world. The U.S. and all its allies must be ready to perform. – Wall Street Jounal   

Walter Russell Mead writes: America’s unique ability to attract powerful allies around the world remains critical to our national security and the values we cherish. The Japanese strategic awakening is historic, and Americans should do everything we can to support it. – Wall Street Journal

Africa

The third round of Congo peace talks facilitated by the East Africa regional bloc opened in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, on Monday with a plan to discuss reforms that will facilitate disarmament of rebel groups. – Associated Press 

South Sudan should investigate officials accused of overseeing systematic gang rapes, some of whose victims were girls as young as nine, UN rights experts said on Monday in a statement the government dismissed as a fabrication. – Reuters 

A ceasefire between government troops and M23 rebels appeared to be holding for a third day on Monday in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite clashes between rival militias, local residents told AFP. – Agence France-Presse 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will host Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on a state visit on Dec. 6. – Bloomberg 

The Central African Republic threatened Monday to take reprisals after an aircraft flew in from a neighbouring country in the middle of the night and bombed CAR troops and their Russian paramilitary allies. – Agence France-Presse

Cybersecurity

Cryptocurrency lender BlockFi Inc. filed for chapter 11 on Monday, following FTX into bankruptcy and spotlighting the contagion effects that the failure of the crypto exchange has unleashed. – Wall Street Journal

Twitter owner Elon Musk on Monday opened fire against Apple over its tight control of what is allowed on the App Store, saying the iPhone maker has threatened to oust his recently acquired social media platform. – Agence France-Presse 

Editorial: Those who believe in free expression on Twitter should be fighting for clear and consistent policies along with transparent enforcement. Instead, Mr. Musk has brought chaos. – Washington Post

Long War

A gold mining boom in Burkina Faso over the last decade propelled Boukary Diallo from being a vendor on a market stall to running a meat business supplying a mine near Ouahigouya, his home town in the north of the country. But as the West African country loses territory to Islamist militants and lurches from coup to coup, threatening to turn the boom to bust, Diallo is concerned he will be unable to retain all of his ten employees. – Reuters  

Taliban militants in Pakistan will no longer abide by a months-long ceasefire with the Pakistani government, a spokesman for the militant group said on Monday. – Reuters

Somali security forces stormed a hotel in the capital on Monday to end a near day-long siege by al Shabaab militants who killed nine people at the building near the president’s residence in the capital, police said. – Reuters  

On November 26, 2022, Tala’i’ Al-Ansar (The Vanguard of the Supporters), a pro-Islamic State (ISIS) media foundation released a poster ridiculing the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, suggesting that the real test of a man’s mettle, which shows his true colors, is in joining the ranks of jihad. – Middle East Media Research Institute