Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Palestinian militants who raided Israel in the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people, abducted over 240 civilians and soldiers and brought them back to the Gaza Strip. Israel responded with a military campaign it said was aimed at destroying Hamas and recovering the hostages. Hamas released dozens of the hostages under a temporary cease-fire agreement that began on Nov. 24. – Wall Street Journal

The chief brokers of the Israel-Hamas hostage-prisoner exchange are pushing the two sides to prolong the truce in Gaza beyond the current two-day extension and start talks that would end the war, Egyptian and Qatari officials said. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas and Israel were expected to release more hostages and prisoners on Wednesday, the last day of a prolonged six-day truce in the Gaza Strip conflict, as attention focused on whether mediator Qatar could negotiate another extension. – Reuters

A Hamas senior official invited U.S. billionaire Elon Musk on Tuesday to visit the Palestinian Gaza strip to see the extent of destruction caused by the Israeli bombardment. – Reuters

Hamas has turned over 12 more hostages — 10 Israelis and two Thai citizens — to the Red Cross, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office, despite earlier competing claims of violations of the deal that brought their war to a temporary pause. – Bloomberg

Doha seeks to mediate a deal that would allow for the release of all the hostages, as Israel waited to see another ten return home Wednesday night, as part of a process that has so far seen 60 Israelis freed. – Jerusalem Post

Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, called for Israel to set a time limit for Hamas to release the remaining hostages it is holding and to kill Hamas leaders, including his father, if they fail to do so, in a video posted on X on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Multiple reports in recent days reveal that Israel was aware that Hamas had built mock Israeli communities to train for a major assault, even ending one massive drill with the words “We have completed the killing of everyone on the kibbutz,” but intelligence warnings were largely dismissed as “fantasy.” – Times of Israel

The United States credits the Palestinian Authority for the relative calm in the West Bank amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, a Biden administration official told The Times of Israel on Wednesday. – Times of Israel

Bret Stephens writes: The world, including Israel, has a common interest in an eventual Palestinian state that cares more about building itself up than tearing its neighbors down; that invests its energy in future prosperity, not past glory; that accepts compromise and rejects fanaticism. Since Oct. 7, the loudest professed champions of the Palestinian cause have advocated the precise opposite. It may be a recipe for smug self-satisfaction, but it’s also how to kill a Palestinian state. – New York Times

Dan Hannan writes: Why? Because our culture elevated the person, insisting that no one was defined by birth or caste. That culture has changed radically as a result of identity politics. In an atmosphere in which it is considered acceptable to blame people because, say, one of their ancestors owned slaves, many have returned to the logic of vendetta. If they can’t find the perpetrator of some crime in the Middle East, then they’ll take it out on any Jew, any Muslim. No open society can survive such thinking. – Washington Examiner

James Stavridis writes: But delays always favor weaker defenders in a military conflict. While Israel may benefit to some degree in the propaganda war globally (which it is losing badly), in a pure combat sense these pauses are far more valuable to Hamas. So while the Israelis should welcome their citizens back to safety, they must remain clear-eyed about the cost to their overall campaign — and have a well-developed plan to recover the initiative when the fighting resumes. – Bloomberg

Andreas Kluth writes: Biden did the best he could in pushing for this first humanitarian pause. “The proof that this is working, and worth pursuing further, is in every smile and every grateful tear we see on the faces of those families who are finally getting back together again,” he said. “The proof is little Abigail.” He neglected to add that for every grateful tear there’ll be other cries of sorrow. – Bloomberg

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: There will also need to be a return to the art of human analysis and considering contrary points of view, with less complete reliance on enormous volumes of technical data so that big potential new trends are not ignored in favor of technology and the trends predicted based on the quantity of data. – Jerusalem Post

Dan Elbaum writes: None of these questions will be easy. None of the answers can be reached without pain. But, as we have throughout our history, we will rise to this challenge. It is what we do and who we are. And the future of our people demands nothing less. – Jerusalem Post

Devorah Margolin and Matthew Levitt write: Most of Hamas’ leadership remains, Israelis are still being held hostage in Gaza, and the scale of Israel’s response could serve to radicalize a new generation. As Hamas leader Haniyeh said in the days after Israel began its retaliatory attacks on Gaza that have resulted in thousands of deaths, “[w]e are the ones who need this blood, so it awakens within us the revolutionary spirit, so it awakens within us resolve, so it awakens within us the spirit of challenge, and [pushes us] to move forward.”108 Questions remain about what is next for Hamas. While true supporters of Hamas will see the October 7 attacks as a victory, many in Gaza will see the attacks as a betrayal of Hamas’ governance promise. – CTC Sentinel

Dahlia Scheindlin writes: One of Netanyahu’s worst mistakes was to view the Palestinian problem purely in security terms, as if the politics behind the conflict could be ignored. That, of course, led to the blind spot that helped make the Hamas attacks so deadly. But as an IDF man, Gantz seems likely to view the Palestinian problem in much the same way—as a security threat to be contained rather than an acknowledgement of the Palestinian right to self-determination. And if that is the case, for all its horror, October 7 seems likely to result in more of the same—including future cycles of misery on both sides. – Foreign Affairs

Hector Schamis writes: A social media account posted a map of Manhattan with markers locating a few dozen Jewish institutions and firms with the heading “Globalize the Intifada: Zone of Direct Actions.” Is all this sound and fury directed against Israel or against Jews? These are a few examples among hundreds of cases that underline that, as stated above, Anti-Zionism and Anti-Semitism are synonyms. – National Interest

Anchal Vohra writes: “All Hamas leaders, inside and outside Gaza, are dead men walking,’’ Conricus, the IDF spokesman, added with an air of confidence. “Either we will get our hands on them or our missiles will find them, wherever they are,’’ he said, alluding to assassinations on foreign soil that has historically earned Mossad its reputation. “It is just a matter of time.’’ – Foreign Policy

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine said the wife of one of its top military leaders had been poisoned, raising suspicion in Kyiv that she had been the victim of a high-profile assassination attempt. – Wall Street Journal

Russians are growing weary of the war against Ukraine but are divided about how much harm it has done and how to end it, according to a report based on polling and focus groups by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the Levada Center, an independent polling group. – Washington Post

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not make peace in Ukraine before he knows the results of the November 2024 U.S. election, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday, amid concerns that a potential victory for former President Donald Trump could upend Western support for Kyiv. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin, whose picture was shown between two giant images of an ancient Orthodox icon on Tuesday, warned the West ahead of elections in March 2024 that any foreign meddling in Russia would be considered an act of aggression. – Reuters

If the United States expects to win the next arms race then Washington is mistaken, a senior Russian diplomat said in remarks published on Wednesday, adding that a military conflict between Moscow and NATO cannot be ruled out. – Reuters

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s teenage son, who was shown beating a prisoner in custody this year, has been named as an observer in a new battalion that is part of Russia’s defence ministry forces, a senior Chechen official said late on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russia launched 21 drones and three cruise missiles at Ukraine overnight, but all the drones and two of the missiles were destroyed before reaching their targets, Ukraine’s air force said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Editorial: The mother of two children was detained in Kazan in southwest Russia on an allegation that she failed to register as a foreign agent. Ms. Kurmasheva works for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is based in Prague. She is a dual U.S.-Russian citizen. Negotiating with rogue states after an American has been grabbed is difficult, but that puts all the more importance on deterrence. And that means making clear that hostage-taking states will pay a price. – Wall Street Journal

Mikhail Zygar writes: Even so, the shift in public opinion is unmistakable. Twenty months ago, Russian elites were convinced that the long-unassailable Putin had finally overplayed his hand, and that he would likely have to pay a harsh price for his miscalculation. Now, most of them seem to have changed their minds. The Russian president, as they see it, has shown that he’s here to stay. – Washington Post

Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write: These ups and downs make it all the more worthwhile for Western leaders, who are sensitive to surges of optimism and disappointment, to adopt containment as their unchanging compass. Doing so will help both Ukraine’s war efforts and morale in Ukraine’s allies. Sticking to a consistent, realistic strategy amid the ebbs and flows of sentiment in a major war is its own source of self-confidence. – Foreign Affairs

Charlotta Collén writes: Russia seeks to confuse the EU foreign policy agency with a third crisis, besides that of Ukraine and Gaza, by juxtapositioning national security against its core values. The hope is to thwart the energy, focus, and resources of the West, and to give room for geopolitical ambitions elsewhere, in Ukraine but perhaps even in the South China Sea and Taiwan. This is why Russia is probably not going to stop anytime soon with its bullying tactics at its borders, and why Europe should be wide awake to nip these activities in the bud. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Nico Lange writes: The gradual approach to providing military assistance to Ukraine, given the risks of escalation, has contributed to Ukraine’s partial successes, but now risks unwittingly creating the opposite outcome. Ukraine’s partners will only be able to bring the war closer to military and political success if they swiftly switch to faster support with stronger categories of weapons and ammunition with long-term industrial backing. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

The war in Gaza is testing newly strengthened ties between Arab Gulf countries and Israel, raising questions about an American-backed vision for regional order that emphasizes economic ties over political differences and historical rifts. – Washington Post

Saudi Arabia won the bid to host the World Expo 2030 in a landslide on Tuesday, delivering a triumph to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, as he seeks to reshape the authoritarian country’s international image — and his own. – New York Times

Abir Moussi, a prominent opponent of Tunisian President Kais Saied, went on a hunger strike in prison on Tuesday to protest what her lawyers said was a violation of her rights to freedom and political activity. – Reuters

The ruling emir of oil-rich Kuwait was hospitalized Wednesday “due to an emergency health problem” but later reported to be in stable condition, renewing the longstanding concerns over his health since he became ruler in 2020. – Associated Press

Dubai prepared Tuesday to host the COP28 climate talks as world leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden and Pope Francis signaled they would not be attending the negotiations that come during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war roiling the wider Middle East. – Associated Press

US Vice President Kamala Harris will attend the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday night. – Bloomberg

Pini Dunner writes: After October 7, there’s no longer any excuse for anyone to look the other way. Qatar must be sanctioned, its Western assets must be frozen or confiscated, and its leaders must be arrested for aiding and abetting terrorists, and for crimes against humanity. Otherwise, the world will have allowed them to get away with murder. – Jerusalem Post

China

A landmark national security trial for 16 Hong Kong democracy activists entered its final stretch on Wednesday, with a verdict expected in early 2024, nearly two years after they were charged with conspiracy to commit subversion. – Reuters

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi will visit Vietnam from Thursday, two Vietnamese sources with knowledge of trip said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Myanmar and China are conducting naval drills together as the military government in the Southeast Asian nation loses ground in its northeast border region to a coalition of militias that also has strong ties to Beijing. – Associated Press

Michael Gallagher writes: War with China isn’t inevitable. But we can’t rely on an economic deus ex machina to prevent a conflict. Rather than wager peace on wishful thinking, American policy makers—from the president to Congress—must move heaven and earth to deter China and prevent a conflict before it is too late. – Wall Street Journal

Thomas J. Duesterberg writes: Altogether, the various proposals work to weaken China’s attempts to reinvigorate growth by relying on increased trade, attracting more Western capital, and acquiring technology illicitly to increase competitiveness in industries of the future. These proposals will limit Chinese access to Western capital, which the PRC needs for its faltering financial sector and government balance sheets. The measures will also hinder China’s access to Western technology while limiting the PRC’s drive to displace Western industry in global markets. – Hudson Institute

Peter Suciu writes: However that argument doesn’t take into consideration that China maintains Taiwan is a breakaway province despite the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) never had control of the self-ruling island, or that China’s 10-dash map lays claim to the territorial waters of its neighbors. – National Interest

Asia

When Vietnam was awarded a multibillion-dollar deal by a group of nine wealthy nations last year to work on reducing its use of coal, it agreed to regularly consult with nongovernmental organizations. – New York Times

Australia’s attorney general has approved foreign interference charges against an Australian marketing executive who worked in China, seven months after the man was arrested by police on his return from Shanghai. – Reuters

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a call on Monday that recent American actions in support of Armenia had jeopardised U.S.-Azerbaijani ties, Baku said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Philippine government and the country’s communist rebels have agreed to resume talks aimed at ending decades of armed conflict, one of Asia’s longest, Norwegian mediators announced Tuesday. – Associated Press

Candidates opened their campaigns Tuesday for Indonesia’s presidential election, which is shaping up as a three-way race among a former special forces general who’s lost twice before and two former governors. – Associated Press

Editorial: To stave off such eventualities, the United States should promote and prepare the National Unity Government, starting serious talks with representatives now. Officials with the group say they want a future Myanmar to be democratic and federal, recognizing the ethnic groups and guaranteeing minority rights. They need to be held to those commitments when crafting a new constitution, since they have the only way to stabilize Myanmar. The hard planning should begin now. – Washington Post

Africa

The small West African nation of Sierra Leone announced on Tuesday that it had arrested 13 military officials and one civilian in connection with a thwarted coup attempt on Sunday, when 20 people were killed and more than 2,000 prisoners were let loose. – New York Times

Kenya’s president, William Ruto, is facing searing criticism and mounting public anger just over one year since he took power after a tightly contested election. The rising discontent has rattled the East African nation, a close Western ally that has long been an economic powerhouse and a pillar of stability in a tumultuous region. – New York Times 

A top Sudanese general has said the United Arab Emirates is sending supplies to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), publicly accusing the UAE of involvement in its war with its powerful paramilitary rival for the first time. – Reuters

Hundreds of rebels were killed as they tried to seize a town in northern Burkina Faso on Sunday, the state broadcaster reported, in one of the largest clashes in recent years in the West African nation under threat from fighters linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State. – Associated Press

Mesfin Tegenu writes: “Democracy doesn’t happen by accident,” Biden told the global Summit for Democracy not long after taking office in 2021. “We have to defend it, fight for it, strengthen it, renew it.” With the world on fire right now, Ethiopia and its history of close U.S. relations presents a unique opportunity to fight for democracy in a part of the world where it truly matters, in Africa. This is not a moment for patience, but for action. – The Hill

North America

Panama’s top court ruled Tuesday against a contract between the government and Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals, placing in jeopardy one of the world’s largest copper mines. – Wall Street Journal

With the evidence stacked against Mr. Sert, he pleaded guilty to murder and attempted murder. But a Canadian judge ruled that the attacks were acts of terrorism, in part because Mr. Sert wanted to send a message that he hated women. – New York Times

Canada’s understaffed and resource-stretched navy is in “a critical state” and might not be able to carry out its basic duties next year, the top admiral said in a YouTube video released this week. – Reuters

The Mexican government said on Tuesday that a company controlled by the defense ministry officially takes over four local airports as part of a strategy that gives the military greater control of infrastructure. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

Japan’s space agency was hit with a cyberattack but the information the hackers accessed did not include anything important for rocket and satellite operations, a spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters

A California semiconductor company plans to hire hundreds of employees exclusively from local unions, a rare move in an industry historically averse to organized labor and one that could boost its bid for US funds. – Bloomberg

Authorities in Ukraine arrested five people in recent days as part of an international investigation into ransomware attacks, Ukrainian and European authorities said Tuesday. – CyberScoop

Long War

Spanish police have arrested two Brazilian brothers in the southern city of Estepona over alleged links to the Islamic State militant Islamist group, the Civil Guard police force said. – Reuters

Jonathan M. Winer writes: There is a pressing need for Western intelligence agencies to gather enough information to reach solid conclusions about the extent of Russian involvement in the Hamas attack, and to make those conclusions public. The findings will be an essential element of managing as well as containing the conflict going forward. Any such findings could also have legal implications. Under U.S. law, countries designated as state-sponsors of terrorism have no immunity to civil suits by their victims. It is thus squarely in the public interest for the truth to come out. – Middle East Institute

Olga Lautman writes: Right now, the Kremlin’s approach means poisoning the well of global public opinion with antisemitism, interfering in the free and fair elections of other countries, and strengthening the hand of Israel’s enemies (who are thus also enemies of the US) to distract Washington from efforts to repel its imperial quest in Ukraine, while once again seeking to portray itself as an anti-colonial force with warm inclinations to the developing world. – Center for European Policy Analysis