Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Leaders of the Group of 7 nations pledged during a virtual meeting on Sunday with President Volodymyr Zelensky to ban or phase out Russian oil, aiming to still further erode Russia’s economic standing as it pursues its invasion of Ukraine. – New York Times 

A Russian airstrike on a Ukrainian school that was serving as a bomb shelter for civilians has left dozens of people feared injured and dead, a Ukrainian official and several survivors said Sunday. – Washington Post 

Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in strikes and counteroffensives over the weekend ahead of Moscow’s Monday commemoration of World War II, with Kyiv bracing for possible heavy attacks or a stepped-up mobilization effort by President Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal 

As Ukraine’s forces fought to repel Russian troops from the Kyiv region, Ukrainian villagers along Highway 7 battled in their own way: calling in Ukrainian artillery strikes on a vital lifeline that Russia had mapped out for its assault on the capital. – Wall Street Journal 

As the war in Ukraine grinds through its third month, the Biden administration has tried to maintain a set of public objectives that adapt to changes on the battlefield and stress NATO unity, while making it clear that Russia will lose, even as Ukraine decides what constitutes winning. – Washington Post 

Insurance could be the next financial weapon deployed by the European Union against Russia. EU officials have proposed a ban on insuring ships that carry Russian oil, a move aimed at blocking Russia’s access to global oil markets and the revenue that has fueled its military invasion of Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia staged a dress rehearsal with jet fighters flying in “Z” formations above columns of tanks and infantry to mark the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, as President Vladimir Putin sought to cement public support for his military offensive in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

The Biden administration announced new sanctions targeting Russian state-controlled media and banking executives, a ban on Americans providing accounting and management-consulting services and new export controls targeting the country’s industrial sector. – Wall Street Journal 

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he cannot afford to lose in Ukraine and is “doubling down” on the war, but shows no signs of planning to use tactical nuclear weapons, CIA director Bill Burns said Saturday. – Agence France-Presse 

The Russian military is struggling in Ukraine. Two months into the war, it has failed to achieve the quick victory envisioned by President Vladimir Putin and the few advisers informed of the plan. But Russia’s offensive might is composed of a lot more than just troops and weapons. Moscow’s cyberwarfare capabilities also make it a force to be reckoned with. – Business Insider 

Holman W. Jenkins Jr. writes: If Mr. Putin wants to draw NATO into the war, he knows how to do it. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, one of the war’s three authors along with Mr. Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, made an unusual visit to the front lines last week. Presumably he went to see for himself the state of his army. – Wall Street Journal 

Daniel Twining writes: The attack on Ukraine has achieved the opposite of everything Mr. Putin intended. He’s united Ukraine, turbocharged Mr. Zelensky’s public and international standing, made Russia an international pariah, re-energized NATO, and demonstrated why Ukraine should be in NATO. Instead of cementing Mr. Putin’s status as a modern-day czar, the fumbled invasion has called into question his longevity in power. A war launched to depose Mr. Zelensky could end up deposing Mr. Putin due to rising domestic backlash in Russia. – Wall Street Journal 

Rebekah Koffler writes: Like Putin, Patrushev is a rabid anti-American propagandist, who recently accused the United States of planning to drop a nuke in Ukraine and then blame Russia for it. On Wednesday, he also blamed the West for seeking to destroy Russia. There’s an old Russian saying. Literally translated, it means: “Two boots make a pair.” And Putin and Patrushev fit together perfectly. – New York Post 

Tom Rogan writes: Before the war in Ukraine, NATO assumed that mobile and potent Russian air defense bubbles and fighter squadrons would limit the early response to an invasion to the most advanced aircraft. Ukraine’s experience suggests many more NATO aircraft could operate with acceptable risk closer to Russian air defense and air assets than previously believed. – Washington Examiner 

Edward Lucas writes: The state propaganda machine masks the problems with bombast and Stalinist nostalgia (news just in: we need another Beria). The central message is a contradictory cocktail of national self-esteem and righteous victimhood. Russia is unbeatable, yet also greatly threatened. It is not just young Russian men who are conscripted. Ideas are called up too: history, geography, and economics are glumly polishing their boots and learning how to march. – Center for European Policy Analysis 

Mike Watson and Timothy Walton write: Russia’s inability to adequately resupply its forces in Ukraine has been an embarrassment. For the United States, losing a potential war with China for the same reason would be a catastrophe. – The Hill 

Margarita Konaev and Polina Beliakova write: Nor is a rapid, decisive result likely once politics are taken into account. The Ukrainians are empowered by their successful repelling of Russia’s offensive on Kyiv and outraged by the evidence of heinous war crimes against ordinary civilians. They have little incentive to accept a cease-fire that eats at their territory. At the same time, Putin is unlikely to settle for a stalemated fight with limited control beyond the already disputed parts of eastern Ukraine as the outcome of a war that promised so much more and has already cost the Russian military so dearly. – Foreign Affairs 

Dennis Ross writes: We must prevent Putin’s rules—by which stronger states dictate to their weaker neighbors, and civilian populations are the target of choice—from defining our collective international future. We need to build a broad coalition of states that share that goal—a goal that reflects our values, and not just our interests. – The Atlantic 

Afghanistan

Now that war is over. People can travel freely down highways devoid of gunfire, roadside bombs and attempts at extortion. The terrifying drone of warplanes overhead is long gone. But for many, the holiday that began last Sunday in Afghanistan served as a reminder of the dissonance between the promise of peace many Afghans had imagined and the realities of the end of the war. – New York Times 

The Taliban government decreed Saturday that Afghan women must cover themselves from head to toe, expanding a series of onerous restrictions on women that dictate nearly every aspect of public life. – New York Times 

The decree by the Taliban’s hardline leader Hibaitullah Akhunzada even suggested women shouldn’t leave their homes unless necessary and outlines a series of punishments for male relatives of women violating the code. – Associated Press 

Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government says it is investigating reports that rockets have been fired into Tajikistan from Afghan territory. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has demanded that Taliban authorities immediately release Afghan journalist Khalid Qaderi and end arrests and prosecutions of members of the press for their work. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Editorial: We are currently watching a heroic scramble of Poland and other neighbors of Ukraine to make room, if only temporarily, for refugees from Ukraine — and millions of them. How is it possible that our own political leadership cannot step up in respect of the Afghans who stood with, and worked with and sometimes fought with us during the war against the Taliban? It’s time, in our view,  to break the cone of silence. – New York Sun 

Turkey

Bobby Ghosh writes: But can Turkey maintain these improved relations? The architect of the old “Zero Problems” policy, then-foreign minister (and later prime minister) Ahmet Davutoglu, has long since broken with Erdogan and is now in the opposition. The current foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, has neither the international stature of his predecessor nor his strength within the Ankara ruling elite. He will be keeping his fingers crossed that his boss doesn’t bring out the flame-thrower again. – Bloomberg 

Ofra Bengio writes: Even more remarkable is Erdogan’s U-turn toward Israel. Interestingly, unlike in the past, this time it is Turkey that is courting Israel and it is Erdogan who is signaling and personally leading the change through his speeches and different amicable gestures. This is the same Erdogan who used to lash out at Israel for domestic ideological and political goals, who is now speaking about the important strategic relations with it. – Jerusalem Post 

Laura Pitel writes: It is no coincidence that the fears over refugees are mounting against the backdrop of a troubled economy. Inflation in Turkey reached an official rate of 70 per cent in April. The forthcoming elections have added to the charged atmosphere — and refugees have presented an easy target for politicians jostling for votes. – Financial Times 

Iraq

Iraqi policeman Jundi Khodr Kalo was among thousands of Yazidis again forced to flee their homes this month, after fierce clashes between the army and local fighters in their Sinjar heartland. – Times of Israel 

Iraq’s Ministry of Defence signed contracts with the United States and France to import advanced weapons and strengthen artillery, the state news agency (INA) reported on Sunday citing a senior military commander. – Reuters 

Iraq said it will start implementing a court ruling that gives the federal oil ministry oversight of Kurdish production after failed talks with officials from the semi-autonomous region. – Bloomberg 

Middle East & North Africa

At least 11 Egyptian troops, including an officer, were killed Saturday in a militant attack that targeted a water-pumping station east of the Suez Canal, the military said. – Associated Press 

Jordan on Friday issued a warning against a planned eviction of 1,300 Palestinians living in eight villages in the South Hebron Hills, as well as plans to approve the construction of nearly 4,000 settlement homes in other areas of the West Bank. – Times of Israel 

Clashes at a militia facility in southern Yemen following the arrest of a group of suspected al-Qaida militants has killed at least a dozen people, including two force commanders, officials said. – Associated Press 

China

Hong Kong’s top security official won election Sunday to become the city’s new chief executive, after running unopposed, in the latest sign of Beijing’s tightened control over Hong Kong even as its future as an international business hub remains uncertain. – Washington Post 

Chinese tech companies are quietly pulling back from doing business in Russia under pressure from U.S. sanctions and suppliers, despite calls by Beijing for companies to resist overseas coercion. – Wall Street Journal 

Congress may soon require government agencies to vet tech startups seeking federal funding, after a Defense Department study found China is exploiting a popular program that funds innovation among small American companies. – Wall Street Journal 

The European Union’s foreign policy chief on Sunday said the anointment of a former security chief as Hong Kong’s new leader violated democratic norms. John Lee, 64, who oversaw the crackdown on Hong Kong’s democracy movement, was appointed Hong Kong leader on Sunday by a small committee of Beijing loyalists. – Agence France-Presse 

China’s armed forces carried out another round of exercises near Taiwan last week to improve joint combat operations, the People’s Liberation Army said on Monday, after the Chinese-claimed island reported a spike in activity. – Reuters 

China’s foreign ministry on Friday accused Japan of exaggerating a perceived threat from Beijing as an excuse to boost its own military might, after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned the invasion of Ukraine could be replicated in East Asia. – Reuters 

The CIA’s director said Tuesday he believes China leader Xi Jinping has been “unsettled” by Russia’s difficulties in invading Ukraine, and by how the war has brought the United States and Europe closer. – Agence France-Presse 

Editorial: The U.S. government has a spotty record when it comes to combating such activity. The Trump-era “China Initiative” against economic espionage and trade-secret theft was a misguided flop and created a perception of anti-China bias. Any effort to stop transnational repression must avoid this. In a positive step, State Department human rights reports are now highlighting more cases of transnational repression. It is vital to stop this ugly byproduct of dictatorship from spreading in democratic nations that respect rule of law. – Washington Post 

Michael Cunningham writes: Not treating China’s activities as violations of sovereignty allows Beijing to export elements of its totalitarian system. It also weakens international norms by sending the message that such infractions have no consequences. It is past time for U.S. law-enforcement agencies and federal officials responsible for China policy to take seriously the threat posed by illegal Chinese police operations. – Wall Street Journal 

Matthew Reynolds and Matthew P. Goodman write: As U.S. policymakers begin to grapple with how to address China’s economic coercion, it is important to keep in mind the key characteristics of Beijing’s approach: informality, ingenuity, targeting of politically sensitive sectors—and, in many cases, ineffectiveness. On this last point, it may be wise to consider the advice of a diminutive French strategist from a bygone era of great power competition: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” – Center for Strategic and International Studies 

Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu writes: History for Xi Jinping is, like for Vladimir Putin, crucial to maintaining power at home and advancing his objectives abroad. As Mr. Putin has demonstrated in Ukraine, these narratives can be warped to justify incursions and atrocities –– even while claiming to be a liberator. Even, still, when –– as Beijing, increasingly, is in Pakistan –– under attack. – New York Sun 

Asia

The Biden administration is quietly pressing the Taiwanese government to order American-made weapons that would help its small military repel a seaborne invasion by China rather than weapons designed for conventional set-piece warfare, current and former U.S. and Taiwanese officials say. – New York Times 

Millions of Filipinos are heading to the polls on Monday to choose their next president in a pivotal election that could bring the son of the country’s former dictator to power more than 3½ decades after his father’s kleptocratic regime was overthrown in a popular uprising. – Wall Street Journal 

A Fiji court has suspended the execution of a US warrant to seize a $300 million superyacht Washington claims is owned by sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov, prosecutors said. – Agence France-Presse 

Australia will work with its allies to ensure China does not set up a military base in the Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Scott Morrison vowed Sunday during a heated pre-election debate. – Agence France-Presse 

Taiwan’s air force scrambled on Friday to warn away 18 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, Taiwan’s defence ministry said, part of what is a regular pattern of incursions that has angered the government in Taipei. – Reuters 

Australia’s prime minister on Sunday refused to say how his government might respond if China attempted to establish a military base less than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) off the Australian coast on the Solomon Islands. – Associated Press 

Japan will take time to phase out Russian oil imports after agreeing on a ban with other Group of Seven (G7) nations to counter Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Monday. – Reuters 

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is arranging his attendance at the Shangri-La Dialogue Asian security summit in Singapore on June 10-12 to foster an understanding of Japan’s defence buildup, Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday. – Reuters 

Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said she met her Solomon Islands counterpart Jeremiah Manele for the first time since his government signed a controversial security pact with China, and agreed Australia remained security partner of choice. – Reuters 

Armenia’s Defense Ministry claimed on Saturday that Azerbaijani troops fired at Armenian military positions and at the Sotk gold mine in eastern Armenia, injuring one miner. – Jerusalem Post 

Three people were fatally shot when Uzbek border guards opened fire along the two countries’ shared border, Kyrgyz authorities said. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

Editorial: Mr. Biden must use this summit to reinforce the message that this is not just a European issue and that the whole world — ASEAN very much included — has a lot to lose from unchecked aggression. He must do so while simultaneously telling the individual ASEAN leaders he meets the truth about their abuse of power and how the United States views it. In fact, past instances in which the United States preached democracy but practiced realpolitik have come back to haunt its current effort to rally the world behind Ukraine’s cause. – Washington Post 

Chris Horton writes: Many Taiwanese are looking at Ukraine’s current reality as something that could befall their homeland. A number of Taiwanese friends and interviewees have told me they’d stay and fight, while others have described family plans to secure citizenship elsewhere, just in case. The former commander of Taiwan’s military has called for the formation of a territorial defense force to deter China’s ambitions. – The Atlantic 

Africa

Militants freed around 60 prisoners during an attack on a jail in northwest Burkina Faso overnight, ransacking offices and setting vehicles ablaze before making their escape, two security sources and a judicial source said. – Reuters 

Somalia’s government has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to extend its financial support by three months to Aug. 17, the head of the IMF’s country mission told Reuters.- Reuters 

Raiders killed at least 35 people including a baby in an attack on a gold mine in Ituri, in the strife-torn northeast of Democratic Republic of Congo, local sources said Sunday. One local official, Jean-Pierre Bikilisende, of the rural Mungwalu settlement in Djugu, Ituri, said the CODECO militia had carried out the attack on the artisanal mine. – Agence France-Presse 

Gunmen killed at least 48 people in attacks on three villages in northwest Nigeria’s Zamfara state, a local official and residents said Sunday. Northwest and central Nigeria have been terrorised for years by criminal gangs who raid and loot villages, steal cattle and carry out mass abductions of residents for ransom. – Agence France-Presse 

In the Central African Republic (CAR), nine out of 10 people do not have internet, and only one in seven has electricity — that is, when there are no power cuts. Yet the CAR has just followed El Salvador in adopting bitcoin as legal tender, a currency that requires access to the net to be bought, sold or used. – Agence France-Presse 

The Americas

The British overseas territory in the Caribbean swore in a new leader this week after its premier was charged in Miami with conspiracy to commit drug trafficking and money laundering in a made-for-television narcotics sting by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration involving undercover informants and designer bags stuffed with cash. – Washington Post 

At the United Nations, two officials had a problem. The little-known agency they ran found itself with an extra $61 million, and they didn’t know what to do with it.  – New York Times 

Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador called Sunday for an end to US sanctions against Cuba as he concluded a migration-themed tour of Central America and the Caribbean. – Agence France-Presse 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Sunday that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was responsible for “war crimes”, during a visit to Ukraine where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky. – Agence France-Presse 

Canada will help Ukraine work out options on how to export stored grain to uphold global food security that has been shaken by Russia’s invasion of the country, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said late on Sunday. – Reuters 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced new weapons and equipment for Ukraine on Sunday after an unannounced visit to Kyiv, the capital. – Reuters 

Editorial: Washington’s shrugging approach to Haiti isn’t really an approach at all; it’s an abdication. It is particularly indefensible given that it was so predictable that the country’s already parlous conditions would deteriorate after the assassination last year of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse. Mr. Moïse was no one’s idea of a stalwart of democracy, good governance and sound economic management. But the consequences of the power vacuum left in his wake were not hard to foretell. – Washington Post 

Defense

A key element of a $1.7 billion modernization effort at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard was used for the first time with the docking of the USS Cheyenne, Navy officials said Friday. – Associated Press 

The Defense Department has transferred almost $1.5 billion to the Army and Marine Corps to replenish Stinger anti-aircraft weapons and Javelin anti-tank missiles that have been delivered to Ukraine, the Pentagon’s top acquisition executive said today. – Breaking Defense 

The Pentagon has received more than 300 responses to its call for weapons and commercial systems to rapidly equip Ukraine’s military. – Defense News