Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Biden administration paused the shipment of thousands of weapons to Israel, including controversial 2,000-pound bombs, amid mounting concern about the country’s plan to expand a military operation in southern Gaza that could dramatically increase the conflict’s death toll, U.S. officials said Tuesday. – Washington Post

The Biden administration put an optimistic face Tuesday on prospects for a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, even as Israel began offensive action inside the southern Gaza city of Rafah, closing off all access for humanitarian aid to an area where more than 1 million civilians have crowded to escape Israeli military operations. – Washington Post

A Palestinian doctor at a medical center in Rafah said on Tuesday that 27 bodies had been brought there since the start of Israel’s incursion, in which ground troops entered the southeast corner of Gaza and took control of the Gazan side of a border crossing with Egypt. – New York Times

With its seizure of the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday, Israel has now closed two key crossings for aid into Gaza, drawing sharp warnings from international agencies and officials who said the moves could exacerbate an already dire humanitarian crisis in the enclave. – New York Times

Hamas informed negotiators on Monday that not all of the 33 hostages who would be freed in the first phase of a possible cease-fire deal with Israel are still living and that the remains of those who have died would be among the initial releases, according to two people familiar with the talks. – New York Times

The Israeli military said Wednesday that it has reopened the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza, a key terminal for the entry of humanitarian aid that was closed nearly three days earlier after a Hamas rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers nearby. – Associated Press

Families of hostages held in Gaza have urged the United States and other governments with citizens among the captives to pressure Israel to strike a deal with Hamas for their return. – Times of Israel

Hostage Lior Rudaeff was murdered by Hamas terrorists on October 7 and his body is currently being held in Gaza, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum announced on Tuesday evening.  – Ynet

The White House thinks the Israeli operation to capture the Rafah crossing doesn’t cross President Biden’s “red line” that could lead to a shift in U.S. policy towards the Gaza war, two U.S. officials told Axios. – Axios

Editorial: Victory over Hamas is necessary for Israel’s security and the restoration of its effective deterrence in the Middle East. Present chaos aside, the Abraham Accords and moves toward a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement indicate the broadly shared interest of a more peaceful, prosperous future that moves beyond today’s hatreds and ideological fanaticism. – Washington Examiner 

Marc Champion writes: The right kind of cease-fire would trade exile of the Hamas leaders responsible for Oct. 7’s atrocities for Israel’s permanent withdrawal from Gaza and acceptance that there must be a wider political settlement. If Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas commanders truly cared about Palestinian lives, they’d say “yes.” – Bloomberg

Yevgen Korniychuk writes: May the friendly relationship between the Israeli people and Ukraine continue to exist, and serve as a beacon of hope and inspiration for all who cherish the values of freedom and justice. How long will we continue to bury our children, women and men? We must put an end to the axis of evil. We must unite against terrorism. – Jerusalem Post

Shoshana Bryen writes: President Biden has been rhetorically good on Israel’s security requirements since October 7, and the coordination of Israel’s defense against Iranian attack was excellent. But his undermining of Israel’s decisionmaking is a mockery of the “mourning” on Yom HaShoah. – Newsweek

Douglas Albatef writes: Again and again, they have seen the ability of Jews to defend themselves as the greatest redemptive gift. They exhorted us to maintain unity and understand that with God’s help and both unity and resolve we will prevail. Their perspective is vital, reaching back through time and circumstance, recognizing that with the strength that is within us, we can truly say: “Never again.” – Arutz Sheva

Naveh Dromi writes: We need to continue to fight, also in Rafah, for the hostages, living and dead, and for the safety of all Israeli citizens, especially those who will return to live in the communities near the Gaza border. The threat of kidnapping needs to be removed from the toolbox of the terrorist organizations once and for all, and the way to get there is by turning over every stone in Rafah until all the terrorists are eliminated and until Hamas military power is completely dismantled. – Ynet

Anshel Pfeffer writes: If Netanyahu ends the talks, whether because he and the war cabinet reach the conclusion that Hamas’ demands cannot be met or because he fears losing his coalition, or both, the next step will have to be expanding the campaign in Rafah to the city itself. This is where Israel may finally cross the Biden administration’s red line. – Haaretz

Chuck Freilich writes: Finally, Israel is unlikely to ever again have as good a friend in the White House as Biden, who defines himself as a Zionist and might wish to crown his pro-Israel career by ensuring its long-term robustness, by concluding a defense treaty. Given both long-term socio-political trends in America,, as well as ongoing tensions over various issues, Biden may be the last president open to such an arrangement. A bilateral defense treaty, normalization, and a new regional security architecture, would be the ultimate victory over Hamas and Iran. They are ideas whose time has come. – Haaretz 

Russia & Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday that they have arrested two officers in the agency responsible for protecting senior government leaders and accused them of developing a plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky and other top Ukrainian officials — as a “gift” to Russian President Vladimir Putin for his inauguration. – Washington Post

In the gilded Andreyevsky Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace where Russian czars were once crowned, Vladimir Putin on Tuesday swore the oath of allegiance on Russia’s constitution at his inauguration for a fifth term as president. The traditional pomp and ceremony conveyed his might as Russia’s supreme, uncontested leader for the past quarter-century. – Washington Post

Russian missiles and drones struck nearly a dozen Ukrainian critical infrastructure facilities in a major airstrike early on Wednesday, causing serious damage at three Soviet-era thermal power plants, Kyiv officials said. – Reuters

Russian prosecutors said on Tuesday they had designated U.S. non-profit group Freedom House as an “undesirable” organisation in Russia. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine have accused each other at the global chemical weapons watchdog in The Hague of using banned toxins on the battlefield, the organisation said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Rumbling out of its forest hideout, the hulking German-supplied howitzer has only a few minutes to fire before slipping back under cover to evade Russian surveillance in the skies above. – Reuters

In Prime Minister Meloni, President Zelensky has one of his best friends in Europe. It is a complicated continent, though, and not even Italy has a lock on a uniform position to stake out with respect to a war increasingly seen as moving along two tracks. The first is stalemate and a certain ennui that comes with it; the second is global stakes in the conflict that are only getting higher. – New York Sun

Garry Kasparov writes: A war can’t be won by following the rules set in peacetime. The only way to win this long war is through regime change in Moscow and Tehran. Such change will be brought closer by isolating Russia and Iran politically and economically and by halting their foreign aggression. – Wall Street Journal

Andrew C. Kuchins and Chris Monday write: That is deeply suboptimal for Russia’s future, nor is it in the interests of Europe or the United States—or even China and India as they draw benefits from this in the short term. However, as long as Russia is on a war footing and Vladimir Putin is the leader, this is not likely to change. Bringing more balance back to Russia’s geopolitical position will be the task for future leadership. – The National Interest

Kseniya Kirillova writes: Putin’s Russia has become a fully-fledged criminal state, where wrongdoers receive state-sanctioned immunity. For the ordinary citizen, seeking to ignore the war and continue their daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult to turn away from the consequences. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Korean Peninsula

Kim Ki Nam, a North Korean propaganda chief who helped build personality cults around the country’s three dynastic leaders, has died at 94, the North’s state media said. – Associated Press

Several structures have been demolished at one of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s luxurious residences, new satellite images reveal. – Newsweek

Ukrainian state prosecutors say they have examined debris from 21 of around 50 North Korean ballistic missiles launched by Russia between late December and late February, as they seek to assess the threat from Moscow’s cooperation with Pyongyang. – Reuters

South Asia

The Taliban defence ministry on Wednesday rejected Pakistan’s allegations that Afghans were involved in an attack on Chinese engineers, as ties between the neighbouring nations sour amidst rising insecurity. – Reuters 

The Afghan Taliban said on Tuesday they have quelled protests in a northern province over security forces’ attempts to eradicate opium poppy cultivation which generates income for many impoverished farmers. – Reuters

Andy Mukherjee writes: Even as a pliant Election Commission looks the other way, Modi must weigh the consequences of his dog whistles. The Indian prime minister’s desperation for a third term is putting a target on the back of a vulnerable minority — and placing millions of lives at risk. – Bloomberg

Europe

Italy said on Tuesday that planes used by charities to track migrant boats in difficulty would no longer be able to fly from airports on the islands of Sicily, Pantelleria and Lampedusa that are close to the shipping routes. – Reuters 

German prosecutors ordered a search of the Brussels offices of a member of the European Parliament for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on Tuesday after an aide was arrested in Germany last month on suspicion of espionage for China. – Reuters

Moldova will not obstruct the supply of Russian gas to its breakaway Transdniestria region after a transit deal with Ukraine expires this year, the Moldovan energy minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday that in order for Europe to avoid conflicts and be safe it must increase its defence capabilities, and he repeated his call for the construction of a common European air defence system – Reuters

Poland’s first nuclear plan is realistically seen starting operations in 2040, several years later than planned by the previous government, Industry Minister Marzena Czarnecka said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Belarus on Tuesday launched drills involving missiles and warplanes capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, which close ally Russia has deployed there amid tensions with the West over Ukraine. – Associated Press

Italy’s president told the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can’t be solved by rewarding its aggression and peace can only come when Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are restored. – Associated Press

EU countries approved a plan worth 6 billion euros ($6.45 billion) to support Western Balkan states on Tuesday aimed at accelerating reforms and economic growth in the region, as they seek future membership in the bloc. – Associated Press

Finland’s decision to store some military equipment in Norway, and later in Sweden, has been long in the making, but gained urgency after Russia’s long-range demonstrations in Ukraine and was sped up further still by the Nordic nation’s recent entry into NATO, according to Finnish officials. – Breaking Defense 

Gustav Meibauer and Christopher David LaRoche write: They are right in one key way, though: Berlin now faces an opportunity to reimagine its national security. Should Germany’s leaders be willing to grasp it — and mounting evidence indicates they may not — we implore them to weigh dearly whether the high costs of a nuclear program are worth its supposed benefits. The atomic option may seem a seductive, because straightforward, way ahead. But Germany may be better served if its elites focus on reforming its conventional security strategy, not wishfully thinking about quick fixes and superweapon dreams. – War on the Rocks

The Americas

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with senior Latin American officials in Guatemala on Tuesday as part of the Biden administration’s push to get countries in the region to ramp up enforcement of their borders and expand legal ways to migrate. – New York Times

U.S. military planes filled with civilian contractors and supplies have begun landing in Haiti, paving the way for a seven-nation security mission, led by Kenya, to deploy to the troubled Caribbean nation in the coming weeks, American officials say. – New York Times

The Chinese state-owned company at the center of a dispute over operations of a megaport it is building on Peru’s Pacific coast insisted on Tuesday on terms agreed with the government, as some local officials have sought to backtrack on the deal. – Reuters

The three men accused of murdering Canadian Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar last year in a killing that triggered a diplomatic crisis between Canada and India appeared briefly in a British Columbia courtroom on Tuesday. – Reuters

Persistent Chinese election meddling has the potential to undermine Canadian democracy, Canada’s main spy agency said on Tuesday in the latest official warning about clandestine activity by Beijing. – Reuters 

Cybersecurity

The personal information of British army, navy and air force members has been hacked in a significant data breach, raising alarm over a growing threat from cyberattacks by hostile states, Britain’s defense secretary said on Tuesday. – New York Times

TikTok’s new lawsuit to block a U.S. law forcing the social media company’s Chinese parent to divest it or be banned could spark a landmark clash over free speech, government power and the balance between open commerce and national security, experts told Reuters. – Reuters

Britain, the U.S. and Australia have sanctioned and unmasked a senior Russian leader of the notorious cybercrime gang LockBit, the British government said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States announced cyber-related sanctions on Russian national Dmitriy Yurevich Khoroshev on Tuesday, who it described as a senior leader of the LockBit ransomware group. – Reuters

Our era of fast technological change is enabling “a bit of a special ops renaissance,” in which technologies such as distributed AI and autonomy can give smaller teams an edge against larger adversaries, the head of U.S. Special Operations Command said Tuesday. – Defense One

The government of China’s objective in deploying Volt Typhoon hackers to break into U.S. critical infrastructure is to “cause disruption and sow societal panic,” a senior cybersecurity official said Tuesday. – The Record

Microsoft has deployed the GPT-4 large language model in an isolated, air-gapped Azure Government Top Secret cloud for use by the Department of Defense, the company announced Tuesday. – DefenseScoop