Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Hard-line pro-Iran militias in Iraq denounced the late-night rocket strike near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, seeking to distance themselves from an attack that threatens to inflame tensions amid efforts to de-escalate a crisis between Washington and Tehran. – Wall Street Journal

Iranian officials said Monday that within weeks they could exceed an internationally agreed cap on their stockpile of low-enriched uranium, as tensions between Iran and the U.S. escalated. – Wall Street Journal   

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Monday the “genocidal taunts” of US President Donald Trump will not “end Iran”, as tensions spike between the two countries. “Iranians have stood tall for millennia while aggressors all gone. Economic terrorism and genocidal taunts won’t ‘end Iran’,” Zarif wrote on Twitter. – Agence France-Presse  

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran would be met with “great force” if it attempted anything against U.S. interests in the Middle East, adding that Tehran has been very hostile toward Washington. – Reuters

Iran has increased by fourfold the rate of enrichment of low-enriched uranium, an official in Natanz nuclear facility was cited as saying by Tasnim news agency on Monday, a week after Iran officially stopped some commitments under an international nuclear accord. – Reuters  

Britain told Iran on Monday not to underestimate the resolve of the United States, warning that if American interests were attacked then the administration of President Donald Trump would retaliate. – Reuters  

Iran’s president has told a group of clerics that he is seeking expanded, wartime executive powers to better deal with an “economic war” triggered by the Trump administration’s pullout from the nuclear deal and escalating U.S. sanctions. – Associated Press  

As long-simmering tensions heat up between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, a look at the various countries or players involved, and what could happen. – Associated Press

Senate Republicans say that for all his bellicose rhetoric, President Donald Trump doesn’t want a war — and neither do they. Some Republican hawks are pushing for an aggressive approach with Iran, arguing that military conflict may be unavoidable. Yet their vocal warnings are obscuring the fact that many in the GOP don’t want to fight and that Trump himself is deeply reluctant to entangle the United States in foreign interventions. – Politico  

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday night that he favors talks and diplomacy but not under current conditions, Reuters reported, citing the Iranian state news agency IRNA. “Today’s situation is not suitable for talks and our choice is resistance only,” said Rouhani. – Arutz Sheva  

President Donald Trump is a “crazy president” whose threats against Tehran aren’t going to work, a senior Iranian official said Monday, adding that if the President wants to talk, he’ll not only have to show some respect, but come up with a consistent message. – CNN

The Justice Department says a New Hampshire man sold nearly $1 million worth of surplus Defense Department hand-me-down machinery to Iran—and they’ve got secret tracking data to prove it. Prosecutors charged Aiden Davidson, an Iranian citizen and a naturalized American, with money laundering, violating U.S. sanctions on Iran, and immigration offenses in the fall of 2018. – The Daily Beast

Gerald F. Seib writes: Whatever other assets and liabilities he brings to the table, President Trump certainly offers this: He is a master at sowing uncertainty, so neither friend nor foe really knows what he’s up to. […]Mr. Trump almost certainly doesn’t seek armed conflict with Iran. He’s gone out of his way to avoid or end clashes involving American forces in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea, and has done little to suggest a military move against Venezuela. – Wall Street Journal  

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The U.S. sees Iran as inseparable from its cobweb of allied militia groups and proxies, many of which are supported by the IRGC. The U.S. designated the IRGC a terrorist organization in April and repeatedly has warned Iran that any attack by it or its proxies will be met with a response. – National Review

Israel

Palestinian officials said Monday that they were not invited to a summit planned for Bahrain next month to discuss the Trump administration’s proposal to bring economic development to Palestinian areas as part of a wider peace effort. But private Palestinian business people said they had been contacted about attending. – Washington Post

Palestinians will stay away from a U.S.-led conference in Bahrain next month that the Trump administration has cast as an overture to its own plan for peace between them and Israel, a Palestinian cabinet minister said on Monday. – Reuters

The White House will unveil the first part of President Donald Trump’s long-awaited Israeli-Palestinian peace plan when it holds an international conference in Bahrain in late June to encourage investment in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, senior U.S. officials said on Sunday. – Reuters

The Palestinian prime minister said Monday that any American peace plan that ignores the Palestinian people’s aspirations for an independent state is doomed to fail. Mohammad Shtayyeh’s comments immediately cast a cloud over the American-led Mideast peace  conference expected to take place in late June in the tiny Gulf Arab state of Bahrain. – Associated Press

Israel and Hamas have denied reports that a Gaza ceasefire understanding had been reached that would ensure six-months of calm. Channel 12 news on Monday night reported that a truce had been reached, sparking a chain of Israeli political reactions and diplomatic denials. – Jerusalem Post  

Hamas released its first response to the upcoming Bahrain workshop scheduled for June, which is seen as a prelude to US President Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan.  “This is the beginning of the ‘Deal of the Century,'” the terrorist group proclaimed, according to Maariv, the Hebrew-language sister publication of The Jerusalem Post. “We demand from Bahrain and its noble people not to allow the Israeli occupation, the murderers of the Palestinians, to desecrate their land,” they stated. – Jerusalem Post  

Qatari envoy and chairman of the gulf nation’s National Committee for the Reconstruction of Gaza Strip, Ambassador Mohammed al-Emadi, reaffirmed his nation’s “special relationship” with internationally recognized terrorist organizations based in the Palestinian territories on Thursday, according to Qatari media. – Daily Caller

Israel on Monday indicted former Fatah militant Zakaria Zubeidi and his alleged accomplice Tarek Bargut with carrying out shooting attacks in Jerusalem in 2016 and near the West Bank settlement of Beit El in 2018 and 2019. – Ynet

Ukraine’s new Jewish president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was sworn into office Monday in Kiev, but not one single Israeli minister or senior official was present at the event. Instead, the country relied on its ambassador to Kiev, Joel Lion, to represent the government. – Associated Press

Ben-Dror Yemini writes: One of the main problems in the fight against the BDS lies in the deceptive definition of its goal to “pressure Israel into ending the occupation.” Although some BDS activist do genuinely believe the organization uses legitimate and non-violent ways to apply pressure on Israel – in order to achieve peace between Palestinians and the State of Israel – the movement’s true goal isn’t to end the occupation. The BDS opposes the very existence of Israel, and the movement’s leaders admit that.  – Ynet

Amos Harel writes: Amid intensive efforts to form a new government and maneuvers meant to extricate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the indictments piling up against him, the existing government in Israel is dealing with another important issue – developments in the Gulf. – Haaretz

Noa Landau writes: For the moment, the Peace to Prosperity conference that the Trump administration will host in Bahrain at the end of next month is looking like a festive wedding lacking a small but important detail: The presence of the intended partner in marriage. – Haaretz

Middle East & North Africa

Hundreds of members of the U.S. Congress signed a letter to President Donald Trump on Monday arguing that the United States should remain engaged with the conflict in Syria, saying they were “deeply concerned” about extremist groups in the country. – Reuters

A rocket was fired into the Iraqi capital Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions, on Sunday night, falling near the U.S. Embassy but causing no casualties, the Iraqi military said. – Reuters

Leading Iraqi Shiite figures warned Monday against attempts to pull their country into a war between the U.S. and Iran, saying it would turn Iraq into a battlefield yet again, just as it is on the path to recovery. The warning came hours after a rocket slammed into Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, landing less than a mile from the sprawling U.S. Embassy. No injuries were reported and no group immediately claimed the Sunday night attack. – Associated Press

Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem on Monday accused the United States and Israel of being responsible for “the escalation and tensions in the region.” “The rhetoric being used by this front is a rhetoric of threats and war and this might push things to the brink of confrontation,” Qassem told the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis during a meeting, according to the Naharnet news website. – Arutz Sheva  

Gunmen have cut off the main water pipeline to Libya’s besieged capital, Tripoli, spelling more misery for residents already reeling from weeks of fighting. The United Nations said the water blockage was a possible war crime as Libya’s internationally recognized government accused forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, which have been trying to capture Tripoli, of being behind the blockage. – Reuters

After years of assassinations, bombings and militia firefights, Libya’s eastern city of Benghazi finally feels safe again — but security has come at a heavy cost. Uniformed police are out at major intersections, cafes and restaurants stay open late into the night, and local groups hold art exhibitions and festivals. But the city center lies in ruins, thousands remain displaced, and forces loyal to commander Khalifa Hifter, who now controls eastern Libya, have cracked down on dissent. – Associated Press

Asia

The man accused of shooting dead 51 Muslim worshippers in the Christchurch mosque attacks was formally charged with terrorism for the first time on Tuesday, New Zealand police said. In addition to the terror charge, Brenton Tarrant also faces 51 charges of murder and 40 of attempted murder over the March 15 attacks. – Agence France-Presse  

Hong Kong’s leader said on Tuesday that her administration was determined to push through an extradition bill that could see individuals sent back to mainland China for trial, despite mounting opposition locally and internationally. – Reuters

China’s defense minister will speak at an Asia defense forum in Singapore, the organizer said on Monday, the first time in eight years that Beijing has been represented at this level at the gathering and at a time when China-U.S. ties are strained over trade and security. – Reuters

The United States is backing calls for Taiwan to be granted observer status at the U.N. health agency’s biggest annual gathering, the U.S. health secretary said Monday. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar spoke to reporters in Geneva on the sidelines of the start of the World Health Organization’s annual assembly, which China’s government has prevented Taiwan from attending. – Associated Press

Several multinational exercises focused on interoperability have taken place in the Indo-Pacific region recently, including two involving French Navy aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91) on its first deployment since 2016. Late last week, Charles de Gaulle – back on international patrol after coming out of an 18-month mid-life refit – led ships from the U.S., Australia and Japan during the La Perouse exercises in the Bay of Bengal. – USNI News

Clark Packard writes: If economic relations with China are going to be rocky for the foreseeable future, the U.S. should do everything it can to expand commercial ties with partners across the Asia-Pacific region. – Washington Examiner

John Lee writes: The Coalition government has issued strongly worded criticisms of Chinese violations of international law in the South China Sea, which are ahead of statements made by even regional claimants to disputed territories and warned against assertive Chinese behavior in the East China Sea. Those declarations were made in defense of international law and norms and to condition Beijing to accept Australian positions on these issues. – CNN

John Schaus writes: Since October, U.S. Army War College researchers have looked into Indo-Pacific theater design at and beyond 2028 on behalf of the Secretary of the Army. Though we have found that U.S. and partner forces have an impressive body of work under way, it is clear that the Army must change across five major elements of design: strategy and operational concepts; forces and capabilities; footprint and presence; authorities, permissions, and agreements; and mission command arrangements. – Defense One

Africa

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says Somalia is making progress toward building a functioning state but must tackle violent extremism, terrorism, armed conflict, political instability and corruption. – Associated Press  

The South African government does not intend to change its behaviour towards Huawei, Sidwell Medupe, department of trade and industry spokesperson told Business Insider South Africa. Huawei is the biggest seller of smartphones in South Africa, after Samsung. The US government this weekend blacklisted the Chinese firm due to security concerns, which forced Alphabet, Google’s parent company, to suspend its corporate relationship with Huawei. – Business Insider

In 2014, the Kenyan government decided the aging line needed replacing and agreed to pay the state-owned China Road and Bridge Company (CRBC) about $3.6 billion to build, finance and, initially, operate a Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) between the capital of Nairobi and Mombasa, in a bid to fire-up the East African country’s developing economy. It was a huge gamble. Like its predecessor, the new railway line has been plagued by controversy, as well as accusations that it has resulted in huge debt to China it will take Kenya years to climb out of. But now China appears to be unwilling to fund further sections of the line, leaving a question mark over its future. – CNN

Paul D. Williams writes: For over a decade, a dozen states and multilateral organizations have invested considerable time, effort, equipment, and hundreds of millions of dollars to build an effective Somali National Army (SNA). So far, they’ve failed. – War on the Rocks

Cybersecurity

A bipartisan group of lawmakers wants Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats to develop a strategy for ensuring surveillance capabilities are not exported to foreign governments with records of human rights abuse or arbitrary detentions. – Washington Post

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has warned U.S. firms of the risks to company data from Chinese-made drones, according to a notice reviewed by Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

Apple Face ID parts supplier Lumentum Holdings Inc followed Google on Monday in clamping down on the business it does with Huawei Technologies, after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a ban on the Chinese firm on national security grounds. – Reuters