Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The European Union coordinator of talks to revive Iran’s nuclear accord with world powers said Tuesday he was traveling to Tehran, as the bloc makes a last-ditch effort to salvage the deal after a weekslong standstill. – Associated Press 

Iran is attempting to inflict “revenge” against the United States over the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, according to the director of national intelligence. – Washington Examiner  

The head of the United Nations’ atomic watchdog said on Tuesday Iran was dragging its feet on information about uranium particles found at old undeclared sites in the country, raising the prospect of a clash on the issue in June. – Reuters 

Qatar’s emir will travel to Tehran on Thursday, Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported. – Reuters 

Iran will need to import at least 7 million tonnes of wheat in the year to March 2023, marking a second year of high imports as drought continues to affect domestic production, the chairman of Iran’s Grain Union said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi has announced plans to cut back bread subsidies as wheat prices soar globally and Tehran tries to steer an economy hard hit by US sanctions on oil exports. – Financial Times 

Michael Doran writes: As a means of stopping Iran from getting a bomb, the nuclear deal is sadly wanting; but as a tool for branding the Saudis, the domestic rivals of the progressives, and, above all, the Israelis as warmongers, it is an effective propaganda tool. When a kinder and gentler Islamic Republic fails to arrive—and fail it most certainly will—then the Biden administration mandarins will lecture us like didactic professors. More in sorrow than in anger, they will shake their heads and lament the fact that those damned Israelis and Saudis just couldn’t learn to share the Middle East with the Iranians. We tried to tell them, but they just wouldn’t listen. – Common Sense 

Syria

International donors on Tuesday pledged $6.7 billion to help Syrians and neighboring countries hosting refugees but fell well short of a U.N. target for assistance to millions of people from conflict-torn Syria who rely on aid to survive. – Associated Press 

A site in southern Syria was damaged in an Israeli missile attack in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday, Syrian state media reported. – Times of Israel 

Israeli water-from-air tech company Watergen has installed one of its water generators at a medical facility in the Syrian province of Raqqa, the former headquarters of terror organization IS, and is set to deliver nine more by the end of 2022, the company told The Times of Israel Tuesday. – Times of Israel 

Russian-flagged ships filled with stolen Ukrainian grain are transporting the looted cargo to Syria, according to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. The ships have already reached the Mediterranean Sea, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s main intelligence directorate said on Tuesday, and from Syria, the grain may be smuggled to other countries in the Middle East. – Washington Examiner 

Qatar, on Tuesday, pledged $50 million to support the Syrian people during a conference held in Brussels on Syria’s future, Anadolu News Agency reports. – Middle East Monitor 

Israel

Israel’s top court called on Tuesday for the conclusion of a long-running trial of a Palestinian aid worker accused of funneling tens of millions of dollars in relief funds to the Islamic militant group Hamas, charges he has consistently denied. – Reuters 

Arab politicians, organizations and media sources condemned the death of prominent Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Aqla on Wednesday morning, accusing Israel and the IDF of systematic terrorism, premeditated murder and intentionally targeting free speech. – Jerusalem Post 

The lack of funds has hampered the IDF’s ability to strengthen and repair security components in communities along its borders in the north and south, a new State Comptroller report has found. – Jerusalem Post 

Over 1,100 Palestinian family members related to terrorists have been denied by the IDF from entering Israel since the wave of terror attacks began a month and a half ago. – Jerusalem Post 

A plane that was about to take off for Turkey from Ben-Gurion Airport on Tuesday returned to the terminal. The pilot aborted the flight after passengers said they had received photos of aviation disasters on their mobile devices. Israeli authorities believe they were sent by nine people on board using the iPhone AirDrop function. – Jerusalem Post 

The state has failed to protect its security and economic interests from wide-ranging cyberattacks, State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman said Tuesday in his annual report. – Jerusalem Post 

The Islamist Ra’am party announced that it was canceling a scheduled press conference on Wednesday morning in which it was expected to announce its decision on voting with the coalition to fend off an expected legislative attack later in the day. – Times of Israel 

Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov on Tuesday left a Knesset event commemorating Victory Day after lawmakers there criticized Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. – Times of Israel 

A television poll has found that if elections were to be held today, parties currently in the government coalition would drop by several seats into a minority in the Knesset, but the opposition bloc of parties led by Likud would also fall short of a majority. – Times of Israel 

The Likud-led opposition was still weighing Tuesday whether or not to attempt to bring the Knesset a step closer to snap elections on Wednesday. Since Silman’s resignation, Likud and other opposition party members have been vocal about their efforts to pry away additional MKs from the coalition. Reports swirled this week citing Likud sources who claimed they were in talks with potential defectors, without naming names. – Times of Israel  

Speaking to The Times of Israel on Monday, France’s envoy in Tel Aviv expressed a sentiment similar to that of Israeli officials, stressing that close cooperation between the countries would continue, especially in defense and energy.- Times of Israel 

Israel may be the United States’ closest ally in the Middle East, but the world’s only majority-Jewish nation also enjoys a special relationship with Moscow, a relationship now under strain as a result of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and the competing narratives surrounding the conflict. – Newsweek 

Boris Epshteyn writes: The antisemitic boycotts have failed. The relationship between the Jewish state and its neighbors is thriving thanks to the Abraham Accords. And Jared Kushner has now once again made an important mark on the international stage. – Newsweek 

Herb Keinon writes: While this idea was much discussed in the immediate aftermath of Operation Guardian of the Walls, as the months passed – and as bureaucratic turf battles emerged – it was pushed to the side. It emerged again in the midst of the latest surge in terror. There is no need now to wait for yet another crisis – the time to actualize this idea has arrived. – Jerusalem Post 

Ben-Dror Yemini writes: The confrontation between Israel and Hamas takes place on two fronts. The military front and the conscious one. It doesn’t matter how strong Israel is on the former front, in the end it always surrenders because of the latter. – Ynet 

Gidon Ben-Zvi writes: By downplaying the actual source of terror, people who scan AFP’s headline might well conclude that Israel is at least indirectly at fault for the Palestinian campaign of violence, which has grown to include attacks on May 8 in Tekoa and Jerusalem Old City’s Damascus Gate, and has resulted in 19 Israelis being killed and dozens more wounded since the end of March. The AFP is the world’s oldest news agency, with news bureaus in 151 countries. As such, it should know better than to imply that there is a spiral of attacks and counter-attacks taking place in Israel. – Algemeiner 

Middle East & North Africa

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is in talks with Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt to boost their food storage capacities and diversify their food suppliers, a senior bank official said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Libya’s parliament wants the government it has appointed under Fathi Bashagha to be based for now in Sirte, it said on Tuesday, amid a stalemate over control of the capital Tripoli where another administration refuses to hand over power. – Reuters 

Amid ongoing tensions in Jerusalem, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said Tuesday that Israel has “no sovereignty” over holy sites in the city, which he said were “occupied Palestinian land.” – Times of Israel 

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, expressed his fierce opposition on Monday to the US-mediated talks aimed at settling a maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel — in particular lashing out at Washington’s Israeli-born envoy to the negotiations, Amos Hochstein. – Times of Israel 

Alan Baker writes: It is to be hoped that Jordan will ensure its continued respect for the agreed commitments in the Peace Treaty and will refrain from actions and statements that undermine such commitments. – Jerusalem Post 

South Asia

As hundreds of supporters of Sri Lanka’s powerful Rajapaksa family stormed through the capital Monday, beating anti-government protesters with crude weapons, Prasad Perera clutched his colleagues’ hands and pleaded for peace. – Washington Post 

Sri Lankan authorities extended a curfew another day Wednesday as sporadic violence and arson continued after pro-government mobs attacked peaceful protesters and security forces were ordered to shoot people causing injury and damage. – Associated Press 

Bilahari Kausikan writes: If the United States does not prioritize ASEAN, the diminished value of the regional body may cause China, too, to take it for granted, and it will lose leverage with both powers. ASEAN and its members must better understand that strong relations with the United States are not an alternative to close relations with China but the necessary condition for such ties. ASEAN imagines itself at the center of the geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia, but it could well find itself on the margins, no longer a major actor in its own arena. – Foreign Affairs 

Europe

The risk of Ukrainians falling victim to human traffickers will continue to increase the longer the war continues, according to the latest assessment by anti-trafficking organizations. – Washington Post 

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinds through its third month, gas shortages are spreading across the country, adding to people’s misery and testing their resilience in new ways. – Washington Post 

Several Jewish travelers say the airline Lufthansa discriminated against them when it blocked more than 100 people from boarding a connecting flight in Frankfurt, Germany, last week, prompting a member of the German parliament to call for an investigation. – Washington Post 

For the past five years, French troops have been training at a NATO military base here, nestled among pine forests, for a conflict that seemed improbable. But Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has suddenly given a new raison d’être to the 200 or so French infantrymen posted in Tapa, a town about 60 miles from the Russian border. – New York Times 

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Tuesday reopened her country’s embassy in Kyiv that was closed more than two months ago following the Russian invasion. – Associated Press 

Albania’s prime minister on Tuesday visited Kosovo’s ex-president Hashim Thaci in a prison in The Netherlands, where he is being held pending trial for alleged war crimes. – Associated Press 

The UK and the EU appeared on a collision course Tuesday over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland, after London branded them unsustainable but European leaders insisted they would not be renegotiated. – Agence France-Presse 

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has revived a decades old idea with a proposal for a new form of European cooperation that goes beyond the EU, but the details of how such a mechanism would work remain murky and also controversial. – Agence France-Presse 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday warned Britain against making any “unilateral” changes to hard-fought post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland. – Agence France-Presse  

Ukraine’s foreign minister said Tuesday Kyiv was grateful to Berlin for changing its position towards Moscow, including its stance on a Russian oil embargo and on supplying arms to Ukraine. – Agence France-Presse 

Ukraine’s foreign minister said Tuesday that its membership in the European Union was a question of “war and peace” on the continent. – Agence France-Presse 

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said allies should start work on negotiations toward a long-lasting peace process in Ukraine, even as they continue to sanction Russia over its invasion of the country. – Bloomberg 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his nation has taken “a very important” step toward the country’s path to the European Union after a Monday meeting with the secretary general of the Council of Europe. – The Hill 

The Russia-aligned nation will also prepare air defense, missile units, and artillery for drills in its northwestern and western regions as Belarusian leaders fret about elevated NATO activity near the country’s borders they claim is a growing threat. – Washington Examiner 

There is “credible” information that Russian prisoners of war have been mistreated by Ukrainian forces since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February, a United Nations official said. – Washington Examiner 

David Ignatius writes: Armenia has a problem that Ukrainians may eventually have to confront. After suffering so much in battle, how can a nation make peace with countries that have caused so much pain and suffering? It’s an age-old problem, especially for a nation like Armenia that has experienced genocide. Blessed are the peacemakers, even if they’re not very popular right now in a still-grieving Yerevan. – Washington Post 

Henry Olsen writes: Britain is our closest ally, and it’s always in our interest to have a strong and confident leader at the helm. The local elections gave Johnson a reprieve from months of scandal to show he can be that person. He needs to seize the moment before another winter of discontent convinces Britons it’s time for a change. – Washington Post 

Andreas Kluth writes: Scholz, the nominal addressee of the letters, remains careful — as he should — but now also tells Germans that “we cannot allow ourselves to be paralyzed by fear,” and that Putin must not win. Seventy-seven years to the week after the end of the world war Germans caused, he says, this is the meaning of “never again.” – Bloomberg 

Hal Brands writes: So far, the U.S. and its allies have been very effective at coercing Putin’s Russia. […]Thanks to Ukraine’s incredible resistance, the U.S. and its friends have put Putin on the wrong end of a brutal proxy war. Now Washington just needs to shut up about it. – Bloomberg 

Alexander Stubb writes: The timing for Finnish and Swedish Nato membership has been carefully crafted. Anyone suggesting that membership should be delayed is naive, follows Putin’s playbook or has a limited understanding of the security situation in north-eastern Europe. – Financial Times 

Alexander Vindman writes: If peace will come only on the heels of a military breakthrough, then the United States has an obligation to help Ukraine win on the battlefield. Those worried about escalation with Russia must understand that the risks of a Ukrainian victory are greatly exaggerated. The risks of a Ukrainian loss are far greater and would entail irreversible damage to the liberal order, international law, security norms, and global stability. That is an outcome that the United States cannot afford and should be doing everything in its power to avoid. – Foreign Affairs 

Anna Reid writes: Not all of these dreams—of security, a thriving modern economy, returning families, well-planned new cities—are likely to come true. (Shevchenko puts the chance of a real cleanup of corrupt local planning departments at 30 to 40 percent.) But the fact that they are being discussed at all, even as a brutal war continues to unfold, shows how determined Ukrainians are to win, and how their unity and sense of identity has been strengthened by the Russian threat. – Foreign Affairs 

Dalibor Rohac writes: But that is no reason for the European institutions and governments of the remaining 26 countries to indulge him.  They must turn off the spigot and boycott Hungarian representatives in the Council — just as the rest of the EU boycotted Austria in 2000, after the far-right Freedom Party of Austria joined its governing coalition. When it puts its mind to it, the EU can play hardball. For the sake of self-preservation, it’s time that it does so now, and stop coddling a revisionist autocrat aligned with Moscow and Beijing. – Politico 

Azeem Ibrahim writes: Even in a time of political upheaval, the duty of the United Kingdom towards Northern Ireland remains clear. It must attempt to uphold the letter and the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement, even if European intransigence indicates that these concerns are far from front of mind in Brussels. – The National Interest 

Mart Kuldkepp writes: Everyone needs to exercise their critical and moral faculties when thinking and talking about Russia’s war against Ukraine—including about claims like the ones I’ve made in this article. Exercise source criticism, and trust the voices that have made accurate predictions in the past. But most of all, listen to the people affected by and fighting against this invasion: Ukrainians. – Foreign Policy 

Latin America

An organized-crime prosecutor from Paraguay who was on his honeymoon in Colombia was assassinated Tuesday when gunmen arrived by Jet Ski on a private beach where he was relaxing and shot him, his wife and authorities here and in Paraguay said. – Wall Street Journal 

The former president of Honduras wants to call former presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama as well as convicted Mexican drug kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman as defense witnesses against US drug charges. – Bloomberg 

Brazilian far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is not planning to attend the Summit of the Americas next month in Los Angeles, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernandez said on Tuesday that he will seek reelection during the 2023 presidential elections, as he began a brief European tour. – Reuters 

Panamanian President Laurentino Cortizo Cohen said on Tuesday he had appointed Ramon Martinez, currently the country’s Minister of Commerce and Industries, as Panama’s ambassador to Washington. – Reuters 

Colombia has asked the U.S. about procuring secondhand M1A2 Abrams tanks to bolster the armored capacity of its land forces, local military sources have told Defense News. – Defense News 

Cybersecurity

A cyberattack that took down satellite communications in Ukraine in the hours before the Feb. 24 invasion was the work of the Russian government, the United States and European nations declared on Tuesday, officially fixing the blame for an attack that rattled Pentagon officials and private industry because it revealed new vulnerabilities in global communications systems. – New York Times 

The chief of Spain’s intelligence agency was ousted by the government on Tuesday following the disclosure that her agency had used powerful spyware to infiltrate the cellphones of Catalan separatist politicians. – New York Times 

Russia’s ability to unleash devastating cyber attacks on Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure may have been overblown, according to a British spy chief, as Ukrainian defences prove to be resilient against some of the country’s most sophisticated assaults. – Financial Times 

The White House announced on Tuesday that it is expanding its cyber policy office with three new hires, including a former Microsoft executive and a former CIA official. – The Hill 

The Biden administration has forged a new agreement under which the State Department will have more ability to weigh in on certain kinds of cyber operations, according to two sources familiar with the discussions between the White House and the agencies. – Cyberscoop 

Jason Blessing writes: Civilian oversight of military and intelligence cyber operations is important for a healthy democracy, but a lengthy bureaucratic review process hamstrings the proven operational effectiveness that protects our democracy. The Biden administration is focusing too much on oversight and control at the expense of effectiveness. Let’s hope the White House can course-correct before the midterms. – The Hill 

Eric Swalwell writes: Instead of pushing these bills through Congress, we should take a step back and think through the unintended consequences. Forcing platforms to interoperate with untrustworthy entities or make it practically impossible for them to refuse integration with apps and other plug-ins that trade in hate speech, vaccine misinformation, violence-inciting rhetoric or low-quality products or services that increase security risks is just not the right answer. – Cyberscoop 

Min-hyung Kim writes: Hence, North Korea’s evolving cyber capabilities pose a new type of threat to international security. […]Simply put, both Moscow and Beijing continue to supply Pyongyang with training, technology, and materials support for its cyber operations. This kind of cooperation in the axis of the northern cyber powers is likely to continue as the three authoritarian allies who support cyber sovereignty as opposed to cyber freedom have a common goal of weakening U.S. hegemony, in general, and U.S. cyber supremacy, in particular, and the world moves towards a new Cold War era. – The National Interest